OT (Orb Topic) Solar flare with Full Halo CME - 100% chance of Impact

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Solar Terrestrial Activity Report


Flares and CMEs

6 C flares and 2 M flares were observed on February 17. Region 8869 produced an M2.5/1B flare at 18:52 UTC. This flare was accompanied by a moderately strong type II sweep and a fairly unimpressive coronal mass ejection off the southwest limb. Another minor M flare in region 8872 may have been triggered by the event in region 8869. It is fairly rare that regions as small as 8872 produce as impressive long duration events as the one that peaked at 20:35 UTC as an M1.3/2N flare. This event was associated by a strong type II sweep and a full (and beautiful) halo CME which was easily visible in LASCO C2 images at 21:30 UTC. There is a 100% chance that Earth will receive an impact from this CME, the question is when and how significant the event will be. The likely impact time window is from noon on February 19 until late on February 20. If the brightness of the observed halo is an indication of the severeness of the impact and the effect on the geomagnetic field, then this will likely be the most significant CME impact in some time. Minor to very severe storming is possible (K index in the range 5-8, isolated K9 intervals are not unlikely).


-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), February 18, 2000


Thanks for the post PI.

-- Dee (T1Colt556@aol.com), February 18, 2000.

Click thru to see more details. (the greenspun server doesn't need any extra bandwidth load tonight...)

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), February 18, 2000.

Major ditto on the thank you for the heads up, PI.

Checked with www.ips.oz.au (IPS Home Page - Australia); they may be digesting events as yet.

Checked with Majestic at www.maj.com/sun/status. Confirmed M-Class flare.

So, from Noon on Saturday anytime through Sunday night here in the U.S. may be interesting. Hope one of the sites can offer a more specific idea of what continents may feel the effects when. Perhaps tomorrow. Don't know if this CME will be strong enough to see how the grid holds up. Suspect a whole lot of EE's will be pulling weekend duty!

Perhaps others with more on-topic knowledge can post better estimates of what we may see happen, tomorrow.

-- redeye in ohio (not@work.com), February 18, 2000.

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