Someone please help me with my math. Im so confused. You see, the NY Times article down below, "Government Was 'Napping' On Oil Cost, Energy Chief Says", makes the following statement:

The administration is also still mulling the use of the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which contains 569 million barrels of crude oil. That is equal to 60 days' worth of U.S. imports of crude, gasoline and other refined products.

OK, Ive seen those numbers before. Theyve been quoted for the past several weeks as oil prices climbed and the Clinton administration threatens to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

According to my calculator, if I divide 569 million barrels by 60 days, I can find out that the US consumes roughly 9.5 million barrels of the stuff on a daily basis.

Does everyone agree?

Now, I go to the BP Amoco Statistical Review for 1998 -- the last year for which this report is available, and I find that the US consumed 17,810 thousand (17.81 million) barrels per day. (From page 12, right up on the very top line)

According to this, either weve cut our oil consumption nearly in half in the past year, the numbers on the SPR are not right, the published data on how long this oil would last is not correct, the BP Amoco report is in error, or my math is wrong.

I know BP Amoco is not going to publish the wrong data (especially since it agrees with several other reports). And, of course our government wouldnt give out false data on the SPR (would it?????). So, either the newest SUVs have managed to cut our oil consumption in half in only a years time, or my math is wrong. Please help me with my math.

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), February 17, 2000

Answers

Domestic production is about half; imports make up the other half. The 9.5 million bbl figure is just for the imports...

It does add up. On the other hand, the proposals to open the SPR to cover mere price fluctuations (if that is all they are...) are potentially opening us up to major problems later...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), February 17, 2000.

Sorry, I dropped an = sign in the URL.

Link to thread below

And BTW, that last paragraph above is supposed to be sarcastic for those readers who are sarcasm impaired.

And, oh yes, the pres and the sec of energy managed to talk crude oil down about $1 a barrel today by threatening to release this oil.

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), February 17, 2000.

HI Rocky just to let you know I really think its great when someone does the math. You are very right in doing the exercise. I do it alot of it and find contratiction and stupidity all the time. People say if you want to know the truth 'follow the money', I say 'follow the math of the money' the truth just jumps right out at you. Keep up the vigulance.

Justthinkin

-- justthinkin com (justthink@math.com), February 17, 2000.

Thanks MM,

Domestic production is about half; imports make up the other half. The 9.5 million bbl figure is just for the imports...

Yep, I overlooked the key word imported.

And, if I add the 9.5 mil b/d they tell us they can get from the SPR to the 8 mil b/d the US produces, we do get up to 17.5 mil b/d. Thank you.

It does add up. On the other hand, the proposals to open the SPR to cover mere price fluctuations (if that is all they are...) are potentially opening us up to major problems later...

If the SPR oil is as hard to refine as I've heard it to be, and if refinery margins remain low, how is anyone going to get this stuff processed? It has to go to the refineries at a low enough cost for them to be able to process it and make money on it.

Before this jawboning session the word from Richardson had been that he would push for a swap arrangement. Wonder how many takers he got on that?

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), February 17, 2000.

Justthinkin,
Got a mental image of Rocky jousting with the evil oil barons. He makes a successful pass and hits one square with his Vigu Lance.
(I know it was just a typo, but still a funny one)

Try to follow the twisted logic used to calculate CPI numbers, the .gov can adjust any actual data to fit their target numbers.

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), February 17, 2000.

There was a report approx a week ago that quoted a govt source as saying we had roughly 293 million b's in the SPR. However, they did not explain why it was at 293 instead of the 569 that was reported to be available back in the fall. Interesting? I'm sure this administration would not change any numbers to fit any given situation, no matter how obtuse!

-- D.M. (martind9@nationwide.com), February 17, 2000.

Technically, the original 60 day supply to make up for imported oil is a bit misleading. Your math is correct, but the maximum draw rate from the SPR is less than 4 million barrels per day.

So if for some reason we lost all imports we would be hurting because the SPR cannot ship out as fast as imports are needed.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), February 17, 2000.

At Congressional Testimony last year on CSPAN it was mentioned that the US imported 54% of its oil. I recently read on the Internet that we now import over 60% (but don't know if that's a valid number). At the Congressional hearing the congressmen were complaining about why the oil companies had cut back on drilling in the US western states. Apparently during the 1970s gas shortages, the US imported around 33% of our oil. So we're more vulnerable now than in the 1970s regarding imports.

Gas prices at the pump are rising this week in Northern VA (outside DC). Regular at my local Exxon station (near Tysons Corner) was $1.32 the end of Dec. 1999; it was around $1.34 through most of January. Last week $1.36 /gal; yesterday $1.38/g. Today $1.41/g.

-- slza (slzattas@erols.com), February 17, 2000.