Recently I got into a discussion as to how much Y2K remediation had cost, worldwide. I quoted Robin Guenier, who was head of the U.K. Taskforce. Guenier in a January 28, 2000, article, estimated 400 billion pounds (about $600 billion).

The response was that Guenier was a crazed discredited doomer, and that estimate meant nothing.

I know the Gartner Group for a long time was talking about $600 billion, and I guess they have come down a lot.

Anyway, I'm looking for information.

(The one situation I do know about is Montgomery County MD, where I live. They wound up spending over $30 million, causing terrible heartache for the County Council for years.)

-- Peter Errington (petere@ricochet.net), February 17, 2000

Answers

Hi, Peter.

I don't think it will EVER be obvious how much was paid to strictly fix Y2k problems. I remember the 1 trillion dollar amount being spread around as an estimate in 1998 which included litigation expenses for firms who didn't make it. Now litigation seems to be against consulting firms that DID the job, but perhaps charged too much. Who determines when a charge is too much?

What would be included? Would expenses pro-rated over a 5-year period be included, or only expenses in 1999? Would complete overhaul expenses be included if the end result was NOT simply remediation, but a system that is finer and faster than its predecessor?

Personally, I worked on several system overhauls YEARS AGO that included Y2k remediation just as an aside. Will THESE be included?

I don't think anyone really knows the definition that could be used, let alone the answer to your question.

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.thingee), February 17, 2000.

Anita, good response. To answer the easy question first, I would want the total spent over the whole multi-year time period, not just 1999. The other matters you bring up are quite tricky. If the Y2K remediation was just a low-cost part of a general systems upgrade, then it shouldn't be counted for much. And I know that some upgrades were "sold" in their organizations as necessary for Y2K by people who were happy to use any excuse that came to hand.

-- Peter Errington (petere@ricochet.net), February 17, 2000.