Want to see a BOGUS editorial? Read this one:

From todays Seattle times editorial page:

Posted at 05:29 a.m. Pacific; Friday, February 11, 2000 Guest columnist Commuters should reject the 4 percent red herring by Greg Nickels Special to The Times Mark Twain once said, "there are lies, damn lies and statistics." Statistics can be true but misleading. A perfect example is an often-used sound bite claiming "transit serves only 4 percent of trips." It's true, but in a broad-brush sort of way. It's also true that transit provides up to 40 percent of all trips during our region's morning and afternoon commute hours - rated as the worst traffic congestion in the nation. How can they both be true? The "4-percent" sound bite is like cotton candy, tempting and quick but totally lacking in substance. However, finding solutions to traffic congestion is a much more complex and meaty issue that takes a bit more time to digest. First, the 4-percent statistic counts every conceivable trip - 24 hours a day, nationwide - including all personal and recreational trips plus all business trips (meetings, delivery, service, etc.). For example, going from home to day care counts as one trip, day care to the store a second, store to the dry cleaner a third and back home a fourth. Likewise, every start and stop of a delivery truck or visit from a businessperson all count as single trips. Second, it counts trips in neighborhoods and communities without transit service! In areas where transit isn't available - Omak, for example - personal vehicles are used 100 percent of the time, and without the proper context one could conclude that transit is a complete failure. To honestly measure the value of transit, you examine the peak morning and afternoon commute hours - when traffic congestion is at its worst - and count only where a person has a choice between using transit and a personal vehicle. Given a choice, commuters in our region choose transit for nearly four out of 10 trips. This statistic easily passes the common-sense test.

THIS MAN HAS NO BUSINESS TALKING ABOUT DECEPTIVE STATISTICS! The MetroKC SmartGrowth metric site demonstrates that demand is flat for transit, despite the massive subsidies provided to it. The per capita use of transit continues to be less than one trip per week for the metro area. It continues to account for only about 2% of the passenger miles. And as Metros own statistics demonstrate, most of these are short trips, averaging 4 miles. So what the statistics really say is what weve been saying all along. Its a niche market. It serves certain high density short distance areas quite well. It serves A FEW long distance center to long distance center areas well, but as the low market share shows, it doesnt have very many niches left. Time to build roads.

-- (craigcar@crosswinds.net), February 11, 2000

Answers

"It's also true that transit provides up to 40 percent of all trips during our region's morning and afternoon commute hours " Somebody give me a source for this! According to the DOT (National personal transportation Survey), the majority of people on the road during commute hours aren't even commuters, let alone TRANSIT commuters.

Metro's stats claim about 500 million passenger miles a year (http://www.ntdprogram.com/NTD/Profiles.nsf/1998+All/0001/ $File/P0001.PDF) That's a drop in the bucket when the overall passenger miles traveled exceeds 12,000 per year per person. For a service area of 1.7 million people. That's 2.3% of the travel in the area served, don't give me this "It counts Omak," stuff.

Come on, Patrick, give us a reference.

-- (craigcar@crosswinds.net), February 11, 2000.

"The MetroKC SmartGrowth metric site demonstrates that demand is flat for transit, despite the massive subsidies provided to it."

From the WSDOT Key Fact Guide page 14 (PDF version) http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/fasc/keyfacts/keyfacts.pdf

Metro ridership increased 2.3% between 98 and 99 and Pierce Transit ridership increase 5.5%. This is compared to an overall 1.6% increase in highway miles traveled.

-- Patrick (patrick1142@yahoo.com), February 11, 2000.

"Metro ridership increased 2.3% between 98 and 99 " Gee that means that IF TRIP LENGTH WERE HELD CONSTANT it went from 2.3% of miles traveled to (2.3*1.023)/ 1.016 = a WHOPPING 2.315% of the miles traveled, BY YOUR OWN STATISTICS. Now this is in an area with THE BEST transit availability and the highest density in the state. So where did the younG councilman come up with the allegations that this included Omak, etc., ? Playing with his OWN statistics, it would appear.

Besides, Patrick. Go the the SmartGrowth Metrics and you'll see that a 2% change really isn't a change. That's about the variability in year to year statistics over the time they've been keeping statistics. Plus, if you'll check, much of this increase is in the "no-fare" zone downtown, not exactly something that has a big effect on the commute. This also gives an apples and oranges comparison, since the increase was disproportionately an increase in the usership for short trips and you are comparing that to total highway miles traveled. YOU DIDN'T HOLD TRIP LENGTH CONSTANT, SO A 2.3% INCREASE IN USE DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN A 2.3% INCREASE IN MILES TRAVELED.

Not even close. No cigar. Try again.

the craigster

-- (craigcar@crosswinds.net), February 11, 2000.

Patrick-

So here is the data from the metro planning benchmark report. It shows a split of 5.7% for transit, and a total of 48.2 transit rides per capita. SO WHICH IS IT? Is the King County Planning office wrong, or is the councilman wrong. They canUt both be right. 48.2 trips per year per capita ISNUT going to account for anything approaching the percentage of the commute the councilman claims. ThatUs less than one round trip every two weeks.

So whatUs YOUR opinion Patrick. Is the planning office wrong, or is Nichols?

From the Metro Office of Planning website:

http://www.metrokc.gov/exec/orpp/benchmrk/bench99/99-bm-ch5.pdf

Indicator #41 Percent of residents who commute one-way within 30 minutes. o About 79% of Puget Sound commuters travel less than thirty minutes to or from work. o Because commute times have not yet reached extremes, residential location will not be greatly affected by transportation conditions. Indicator #42 Transit trips per person. o This indicator has fluctuated over the last ten years, with per capita ridership reaching a high in 1989, and a low in 1994. It increased again from 1994 to 1997, but leveled off in 1998. o Transit ridership for 1998 was 48.2 trips per person. Indicator #43 Percent of residents who walk or use transit, bicycles or carpools as alternatives to the single occupant vehicle. o In 1997 the split in the mode of transportation for all day travel was: Transit: 5.7%; High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV)/Carpool: 33%; Non-Motorized/Other: 6.9%; Single Occupancy Vehicle (SOV): 54.4%. o The high proportion of trips using the HOV mode (33% in 1997) is characteristic of daily travel, when family members frequently accompany the adult driver on shopping, recreation, and other trip types. o THE U.S. 1990 CENSUS REPORTS THE COUNTYUS MODE SPLIT FOR WORK TRIPS AS 74% SOV, 12% HOV, 9% TRANSIT, AND 5% BY NON-MOTORIZED MODES. THESE FIGURES APPLY TO PEAK HOUR TRAVEL, AND CANNOT BE COMPARED TO THE ALL DAY DATA REPORTED IN THE TABLE FOR THIS INDICATOR.

-- (craigcar@crosswinds.net), February 11, 2000.

"Metro ridership increased 2.3% between 98 and 99 "

This is a sad metric. I don't have figures handy, but when you factor in the population increase for this year, this represents an actual decrease of ridership VS population?

-- Doug (dgoar14@hotmail.com), February 12, 2000.

to Craig: You write: "the majority of people on the road during commute hours aren't even commuters, let alone TRANSIT commuters." So, when I travel from Pierce County to King County on I-5 around 5:30 AM, the majority of people aren't commuters????

Get your head of your you-know-what. Give us a break, man.

I would venture to guess that 90% of the people on the road from 5:30 AM - 7 AM are commuters. How the hell do you define commuter?

-- Matthew M. Warren (mattinsky@msn.com), February 13, 2000.

"I would venture to guess that 90% of the people on the road from 5:30 AM - 7 AM are commuters. How the hell do you define commuter?"

Now Matt, you can be arrogant, obscene, and obnoxious all you want, but you'll go farther and learn more if you do some research rather than guessing.

This is a quote from the 1996 Mational Personal Transportation Survey which your federal government does (at non-trivial expense) every five years. It is consistent with what they' ve found in previous studies and, I rather suspect, with what they'll find this year when they do another.

http://www-cta.ornl.gov/npts/1995/doc/NPTS_Booklet.pdf - Commute trips are in the minority, even during rush hour In examining the work trip as a component of total travel, it is useful to compare work trips by time of day with trips for all other purposes. There is a common perception that most of the trips made during the traditional A rush hour @ are for commuting to work. The survey results show that the work trip share during these times is smaller than expected. Approximately 37 percent of trips for all purposes start during the two rush hour periods, defined here as 6am to 9am and 4pm to 7pm. Only 10 percent of trips for all purposes are work trips starting these two periods. Less than one out of three person trips starting during rush hour are trips to or from work. This seemingly small share of work trips probably reflect trip chaining, where stops are made on the way to or from another destination, like the workplace. In NPTS, these stops are counted as separate trips, and labeled with the appropriate purpose. As steps are taken to improve the survey to capture more of these incidental trips, it is likely that the work share will continue to decline.

-- (craigcar@crosswinds.net), February 13, 2000.

It would seem at this point, that a person of fairness, integrity, honor, humility, or logic would come up with an appropriate apology. I guess we won't hold our breath in your case though.

zowi

-- (zowie@hotmail.com), February 13, 2000.

to Craig & Zowie: I'll apologize when someone presents "facts" showing the majority of vehicles on I-5 northbound (going from Pierce to King county) at 5:30 AM aren't commuters.

But, if it makes you feel any better, I'll apologize in advance, just in case.

And, yes, Zowie, that is my one major flaw - I'm overly humble.

-- Matthew M. Warren (mattinsky@msn.com), February 14, 2000.

"And, yes, Zowie, that is my one major flaw - I'm overly humble. " One of many and certainly not your most egregious.

-- (zowie@hotmail.com), February 14, 2000.