Just got back from Moore Research Center, Inc. at --- http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/ohlc-06.htm --- where the NYMEX price on Heating Oil futures for MARCH appears to be UP $1.76/bl today, and for APRIL up $1.65; MAY, up $1.35. Question is, am I so unschooled in reading a futures chart that I should ignore my gut reaction at this increase in futures? Seems extraordinary, and as if the whowever buys HO futures, anticipates the current shortages to persist AND be of real long duration.

Similarly, unleaded gas appears to have gone through the roof, with MARCH futures up $2.18/bl; APRIL futures up $2.26/bl; MAY up $1.86, etc.

TNX

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-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), February 09, 2000

Answers

Try this Link
1) scroll down to desired commodity.
2) click "Quote" (far right column)
3) click a month to look at. ("mar00" for example)
4) nice graph pops up, scroll down.

The text will explain each type of contract and analyze all the "tea leaves" associated with each commodity (grin)


-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), February 09, 2000.

Yeah SQ Hunter,

Something's askew on the gasoline supply front, Check it out.

Gasoline supply shortfall forthcoming

-- DeRonin (DeRonin2000@yahoo.com), February 09, 2000.

TNX

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), February 10, 2000.

SH, That's $0.0176 per gallon up.

On that linked chart, in the box below the chart when they say "tick" they are talking about the minimum price move which is one point (1/100 of a cent). Since the contract size is 42,000 gallons per contract, a single tick up (say $0.9876 to $0.9877/gal) would be $0.0001 X 42,000 = $4.20 change in contract value. That $0.0176 UP would be 176 X $4.20 or $739.20 increase in contract value. Assuming you purchased long at close of yesterday that $739.20 would mean your contract gained about 1/3 its value (contract margin = $2,025/contract).

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), February 10, 2000.

So much for the auto-makers idea to bring back the bigger, heavier, gas hog. Sure am glad i don`t drive a SUV! This could be quite a domino effect on the economy. with all the extra inventory of large autos, there is bound to be lay-offs in the auto industry. And with fuel [deisel] up this high their will be less and less truckers able to keep on the road. Hence,higher prices of almost everything!

A side thought too: been wondering, could this `unexpected` fuel shortage be caused by the government stockpiling for military use in a large war they perceive may be around the corner?

-- mutter (murmur@ya.com), February 10, 2000.

ugh, Ken,

Better get out a new set of margin requirements. The margin on energies jumped to $3,375 recently. The margin (mandated by the exchange) is the amount the investor must have in his/her account in order to buy/sell the futures contract. Margin varies from commodity to commodity, and will increase in times of volatility.

You don't pay that margin. You just have to keep it in your account in case the trade goes against you. Some of the bigger traders keep T-Bills as margin so that they collect interest. If your loss drops below margin you receive what's known as a margin call.....a telephoone call from your broker informing you of two choices: wire the money or sell something. Not nice. But, if you have successful trades the unrealized gain on outstanding trades contributes to your margin.

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), February 10, 2000.