It's Official-Japan is in Recession.... : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

In case this doesn't format right, here's the link from The Chicago Sun Times.... Is that hissing sound the air starting to leak out of -----------------------------------------------------------------

Japan has slipped back into recession: official

February 8, 2000


TOKYO--A top Japanese economic official suggested the world's second-largest economy may have slipped back into recession, but he expects growth for the year ending at the end of next month.

In a television appearance Sunday, the country's chief economic planner acknowledged that he expects to see a "considerably large negative figure" when gross domestic product for the October-December quarter is announced next month.

That would be a second straight contraction for an economy that shrank 1 percent in the July-September quarter. Two consecutive contractions qualify as a recession.

But the planner, Taichi Sakaiya, said he is confident Japan will achieve the 0.6 percent growth that the government is forecasting for the fiscal year ending March 31.

Meanwhile, a separate government survey said business sentiment worsened slightly in the October-December quarter on concern over Y2K computer glitches.

In interviews Monday, economists agreed the Japanese economy is still on course to grow on an annual basis for the first time in three years, and they said that a large setback in the October-December quarter was expected.

Most economists agree that Japan won't be able to sustain growth until consumers feel confident enough to start spending again. That confidence has been undermined by rising unemployment and falling incomes. Cuts in winter bonuses sent household spending down an unexpectedly strong 4.7 percent in December--which is why some analysts are forecasting GDP will shrink as much as 5 percent in the October-December quarter.

-- Robert McCarthy (, February 08, 2000


Thanks for the article, at 3:30 ET the Yen was trading 109.46 to the dollar. Weak Yen and rising oil costs give them a "double whammy". 100% imports needed for oil, they are caught between a rock and a hard spot. The undercurrent of "Do Something" is swirling in private. What did they do the last time their oil supply was threatened?
hint:dec 7th

Won't be the US(I think), they will be looking for an energy producing "colony". The balance of power will shift when Japan again picks up the spear.JMHO

-- Possible Impact (, February 08, 2000.

Japan defence forces unlikely to be a problem at this time.

Also a 'current' developing in Japanese r&d these last 4 years is 'created' oil. Their word for it. Basically it is biodeisel. Lots of large investment in palm forests in SE asia. But surprisingly for the culture, a very large and building r & d into ocean based oil plants.

Fascinating alternative to drilling, ocean farm the critters.

Some talk in the modeling community of forecasters in the energy biz in Japan about Hubberts' peak. The numbers that I have seen are about 35%less for proven reserves than OPEC quoted figures.

Hmmmmm now can I get peanuts to grow here?

-- pliney the younger (pliney@puget.sound.melodius.rain), February 08, 2000.

pliney the younger,
I agree that they will probably not attack to gain land, just defend their SE Asia energy projects.(I think they will invent nifty biodiesel extraction gadgets) They need tropical "space" to grow the organisms that will produce the oil. Pirates are still very common around Indonesea.

Almost any alternative to Petroleum is being researched, they need to stimulate the economy and regain control of their energy sources for security.

-- Possible Impact (, February 08, 2000.

The Japanese need to be carving out some spears. Otherwise, the Chinese are going to be eating their lunch. The Japanese cannot expect Bubba to help them out.

-- Y2kObserver (, February 08, 2000.

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