http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/020800.ASP

this ought to pop your eyes open faster than your morning coffee!

[i really need to learn how to link! :} ]

-- mutter (murmur@ya.com), February 08, 2000

Answers

http://www. stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/020800.ASP

-- OK (Got_ya_covered@links.com), February 08, 2000.

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Russia/North Korea/Vietnam/Iraq GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Herding Pariahs: Russia's Dangerous Game February 8, 2000

Summary

Throughout the Cold War, the Soviet Union supported a number of weak, corrupt states  from Angola to North Korea  in order to offset the West. When the Cold War ended, Russia no longer needed or wanted to maintain its global confrontation with the West, and it cut these allies loose. Now, however, after a decade of diplomatic and economic silence between Moscow and its former client states, Russia is reactivating some of its old relationships. This will ultimately help rewrite the rules of relations with the West.

Analysis

Despite Russias social, demographic and economic decline, Russia under acting President Vladimir Putin is managing to politically reassert its interests throughout much of the former Soviet Union. At the recent summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Putin demonstrated his ability to lure and cajole the other CIS members into cooperation. Putins tough line in Chechnya, too, has earned him fear and grudging respect in much of the former Soviet Union. Yet the Chechen war has all but ostracized Russia throughout the West.

As a result, an upcoming trip by Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov to North Korea illustrates a new decision by Moscow to change the rules of the larger diplomatic game with the West. No longer content to dine on the scraps the West deems fit to dispense from the table of the IMF, the Putin government is attempting to increase Russias leverage by re-activating Soviet-era relationships. In doing so, Moscow is clearly attempting to alarm Western governments.

Ivanov is set to visit North Korea Feb. 9-10, the first time in a decade that Russia has significantly engaged the Pyongyang government. The last major dignitary from Moscow was then- Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze in 1990. Like Shevardnadze then, Ivanov now will discover an economically backwards, corrupt and teetering regime that has survived by completely separating itself from the international community. In the Russian government press, a so-called Treaty on Friendship, Good-Neighbor Relations and Cooperation, which will be signed, is being trumpeted as an important event. The Putin government hopes that North Korea will function as a geopolitical level for Russian influence in a very dynamic  and very tense  region.

On another front, at least one prominent politician has announced that another old relationship is being revived: the one between Moscow and Baghdad. Vladimir Zhirinovsky, head of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party, announced Feb. 7 that he reached an agreement with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein on the stationing of Russian warships at Iraqi naval bases. It remains to be seen whether the Russian government was even aware of Zhirinovskys efforts, but the goal appears the same  gaining a potential diplomatic lever that will complicate every Western action in the Persian Gulf.

Ivanov is also planning to visit Vietnam Feb. 13- 14. Due to a large population, mineral resources and proximity to trading routes, Vietnam holds significant promise as a trading partner for Russia. Politically as well, Vietnam and Russia share a significant relationship. Vietnam serves as the coordinator of relations between Russia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. This role, the Moscow-Beijing relationship and Russian membership in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation trade grouping are Russias three links to the Pacific Rim. Furthermore, Vietnams recent decision to abandon economic reforms has left it looking to old allegiances for support.

Russia views these states as political chips in a larger game with the United States. North Korea, Iraq and Vietnam oriented toward Moscow would grant Russia the ability to apply pressure on three regions vital to U.S. security.

However, Moscows attempt to rewrite the geopolitical rules will not come easily. Iran, despite its past friendly relations with Russia, will react sharply against any new foreign presence in the Persian Gulf. China will not take kindly to any Russian attempts to gain influence either in North Korea and Vietnam.

But the prime target of Russias change in strategy  the West  seems oblivious to the change. Europe and the United States are still holding out the possibility of IMF loans if Russia rectifies its bad behavior in Chechnya. However, few in the West realize that Russia no longer cares. After 10 years of nearly terminal decline, Russia has ceased to play by Western rules.

The new strategy is risky. Putin is hinting at the potential of confrontation with the West, knowing full well that its choice of strategies may place Russia against Iran and China as well. But the Putin government appears to believe that Russia can no longer remain in its intolerable economic and political limbo. Instead, it is striking out on tried-and-true methods of global engagement that worked for the Soviet Union for a half century. Ivanovs trips to North Korea and Vietnam are but the opening steps.

Related Stories:

Russia 2000 The World After Chechnya The Putin Doctrine: Nuclear Threats and Russia's Place in the World The Year of Eurasia

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-- Better than a hot link (betterthan@hotlink.com), February 08, 2000.

Muter- Go back to the top of this thread, and if you use IE- click on the "VIEW" tab in the top tool bar, then click on the "Source" entry in the pop down. Then lok at YOUR posting and then look at the "link" whic has some stuff grafted 'around' your posting. that "stuff" is all you need to graft around your link. Alternatively drop me an e-mail and I'l ship you alittle cut and paste file that'll cook-book it for you.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), February 08, 2000.

Strafor site

-- deep cover (still@doom.er), February 08, 2000.

Yes...it looks like the BASKET CASES are getting back together!

Perhaps North Korea could share with Putin recipies for preparing human beings for the table...it was reported last year in the South China Post that widespread Cannibalism broke out in N. Korea's recent famine.

I guess Moscow has to scrape the bottom of the barrel!

-- Z (Z@Z.Z), February 08, 2000.