Bruce Beach comments on Russia and Embedded Systemsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Y2K People Finding People - http://www.webpal.org/list.htm
Russian exports of natural gas to Europe were down to almost one third of what was planned for January.
Previously I sent you reports that some Eastern areas of Russia were concerned about going dark because of lack of fuel.
Now this from the western side of Russia, besides the catastrophe going on in the Ukraine, and the tanker ships being stopped by the U.S. Navy. (One actually boarded, others barricaded - although I don't know how important that is as a Russian energy source. As said before the latter may be more of political maneuvering rather than an energy issue.)
The news this morning is from the BBC via Industry Watch with an actual publication date of February 4th, 2000.
It states that:
"The (Russian) Ministry of Fuel and Energy had planned for exports of about169,400 tonnes in January, almost three times the actual volumes. Maksutov said exports were lower than planned because of controls imposed in order to replenish supplies on the domestic market. As earlier reported, companies can export liquefied gas only after meeting required deliveries for domestic customers. "
The actual link, unbelievably long and complicated as it may look, is:
The problem is: We are only getting bits and pieces of news. No comprehensive overview.
This must certainly add to European fuel prices, (something that we really don't hear about) and this is something that can in no way be blamed on OPEC.
Because Russia was such a big supplier of fuel to Europe I have always said that this was the key to watch. Early on the Russians asked permission to translate my report on the pipeline problem into Russian I gladly consented and then I was asked if I would agree to go to Russian to explain the problem. I started to gather together a volunteer team of pipeline and refinery industry experts to make the trip. (Only expenses were to be paid for by the World Bank). But it never took place as the following indicates.
In my email file I find the following that I quote from my Russian contact. I put them here for historical interest.
"One of the top nuclear specialists in Russia told me that he does not believe in "all this stories about hardware" because all respectful engineers, he consulted with, failed to explain why hardware could be absolute-time-sensitive, and what it could cause. Unless he is convinced that there is the real problem (not "American horror tails (sic)") he would do nothing about it. Thank you very much for your article: "The Embedded Processor -- SECONDARY Clock Problem". I forwarded it to this highly reputable member of Russian Academy of Science. If your article convince him, he will pass it to the Minister of Atomic Energy."
(Fortunately, they became convinced and a U.S. and British Team did go to Russia about the nuclear generating plants and millions of dollars of new computers and equipment were supplied to them).
"I have been advised to approach Vyahirev, the General Director of Gasprom, only with the world class expert on the Y2K problems related to the petroleum industry. Are you interested?"
(This was where the trip was organized, but as I stated before, it never took place.)
"Former Minister of Science and Technology (one of the best) (sic) said to me that he does not understand the Embedded Processors problem, and that there is nothing could be done in the time left, any way. So, why even try?"
"One of the top advisers for the First Vice Prime Minister responsible for the Y2K told me that Y2K in Russia will not have much of impact because there is not as much computers in Russia as in America, and that all modern systems in Russia have manual backups. "
"The largest Petroleum Company, GAZPROM, which supplies 2/3 of gas to the Europe, stated that it was working on the Y2K computer problem together with ORACLE, that most of its programs have been checked, and it will be Y2K ready by July. No word about Embedded Processors."
So there we are, from my historical point of view. No problem. "Nyet."
And thus my thesis.
A. Russia a major energy supplier to Europe. (I have figures stating between 15 and 30%). B. Russia doesn't fix its Y2K pipeline systems. C. Russia has delivery problems. D. Europe has fuel shortages. E. Energy crunch causes economic problems. F. Economic problems add to geo-political instability. G. End result - war. (Nuclear)
There are of course MANY other factors leading to war- such as I discussed lengthily in other emails. And mine is obviously a radical thesis, shared by no one else that I know of and certainly not heard on the evening news.
Nevertheless, I DID SAY that we would have to wait six weeks until February 15th, to see the results, and that the marker would be $30 a barrel oil.
So far, we have only media disinterest. And they will never say that it was Y2K, because the conventional wisdom is now that Y2K was not a problem.
All the completely out of the ordinary refinery shut downs, explosions, and failures. The massive number of pipeline problems, and the rapidly declining inventories, are just being ignored by the media and any fuel increases are being blamed on OPEC, which may actually be able to do nothing about it. How can we tell? - I don't know. But, as I said months ago, watch fuel prices.
Still a week to go.
__________________________________________________ +$;%+$;'+$;%+$;'+$;%+$;+$+$;%+$;'+$;%+$;'+$;%+$;+$ //////////////////////////////////////////////////
"You have probably noticed that the difference
between optimists and pessimsts
is that pessimists are better informed."
--Richard Maybury, Early Warning Report, January 2000
__________________________________________________ +$;%+$;'+$;%+$;'+$;%+$;+$+$;%+$;'+$;%+$;'+$;%+$;+$ ////////////////////////////////////////////////// (Though sometimes we're better informed with information that turns out to be incorrect ;-) 1/1/00 ) (response by Friend, Nick)
Peace and love, Bruce Beach firstname.lastname@example.org
-- Nancy (Nancymath@aol.com), February 07, 2000
Thanks for the article. Beach is right on target once again. Too bad they didn't pay enough attention to his secondary clock thesis or else they wouldn't be in this mess.
-- (Steve887@cirstin.org), February 07, 2000.
-- Powder (Powder47keg@aol.com), February 07, 2000.
I tried my best in 1999 to follow and make my best assessment of what the impact of y2k would be for me and the world around me.I dont have the link but in late 99 I read the CIA`s report world wide status,they summed up entire countrys in one or 2 paragraphs.what unsettled me was that almost every country had oil and gasoline related problems to look forward to.being that we import more than half our oil how could this worldwide situation not affect us,indeed this one thing may lynchpin the rest of all that we depend on.It would appear that the CIA was right on target in their assessment.This would mean that we are in for a rather lengthy ride on this rollercoaster.Even if they expedite the matter worldwide it will take time.TIME WITHOUT OIL WILL ERODE OUR JIT SYSTEMS,IT WILL CAUSE HAVOC IN THE ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD,OURS INCLUDED.IT HAS ALREADY DONE SO IN MANY PLACES,AND IT IS A DIRECT RESULT OF OIL BASED ENERGY.Will WE escape in this country.?????I THINK NOT!
-- J (email@example.com), February 07, 2000.
My Dear Mr. Pro,
Sir it is beyond question! You are right! The whole world is crazy (only you are sane, only you have the true conception of reality! Only you have the blessings handed down from on high to lead us into the light!)
Rant on little Sheba! Your slip is showing! And there is a tindril of salava dripping down the corner of your chin. When a certain point is reached dear sir. It is time to cease and desist! Your polly/troll/insanity has reached it's obivious conclusion. And it is time to resume you basket weaving classes.
"As for me...I shall finish the Game"!
-- Shakey (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 07, 2000.
This is SICK! That idiot is going to cause problems for suplying them with totally FALSE information!!!
There is nothing to his secondary clock idea, the Russians are going to be real mad when they find out he is scamming them!
No one person can know about something like that when thousands of professionals and major companies who make those things would not know about it!!!!!! To fool a bunch of people on the web is one thing but to try to con an other country, especially one that is not all that happy with us is asking for disaster!!! He's going to need his nuclear shelters when they find out what he is doing to them.
-- Cherri (email@example.com), February 07, 2000.