Haven't seen much in the way of prices here lately. Has the crisis Passed?

-- David Whitelaw (Dande53484@aol.com), February 07, 2000

Answers

What crisis?

Sure gas prices have risen, but big deal. Clinton says there's no inflation, so they'd have to triple before it would show up as inflation. Seriously, though, I see the problems the Northeast having with shortages and such as being completely temporary, and will probably be resolved within the week. What do others think?

-- matt (rfp@mail.com), February 07, 2000.

I guess it would only be considered a crisis by those people that need to decide if it is better to eat or stay warm. I find the complete lack of caring about your fellow man very disturbing.

-- David Whitelaw (Dande53484@aol.com), February 07, 2000.

Excuse me but still where is the crisis? I agree that a $90 difference in filling up your home's oil tank could bust the bank for some, and hence could be a "crisis", but that would be true of any commodity then that rises and falls in price, and who is to guarantee that those things CANNOT rise. But I still don't believe it makes it a crisis unless you are a socialist and feel somodebody has to do SOMETHING NOW, which disturbs me greater.

I guess your definition of a crisis is if 2% of the population has difficulty with anything at any time, and everybody else is a callous S.O.B. Straight question to you - do you consider the run-up in prices a crisis? And if so, how (beyond that some people make less money than others)? I consider a crisis to be where that situation exists but does not seem to be in a position to correct itself over the short-term, which I do not believe to be this situation. Why do you think this is just going to continue? Bubble.com may be an impending crisis, but not heating oil shortage for two weeks in the Northeast.

-- matt (rfp@mail.com), February 07, 2000.

Uhm, Matt:

Perhaps you could show us how it is going to resolve itself in a week or two. Please take into account the current causes, and the availabiblties of both refined K-1 and K-2 and unrefined Crude. Go ahead and use whatever numbers you can support.

No fair simply saying "Early Spring QED By Inspection" and bowing out.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), February 07, 2000.

May I ask if you are wearing blinders? You seem to have a bit of tunnel vision going for yourself. The overall impact of the fuel shortage affects the very fabric of the lives we have created for ourselves at the expense of our natural resources. do you not see that the price increse affects more than just the average homeowner. Are you taking into consideration that what happens on the east coast is soon followed by the rest of the country?

-- David Whitelaw (Dande53484@aol.com), February 07, 2000.

The crisis (for the other contributors) has to do not with money but with availability. Price is merely the indicator of scarcity.

And get with the program. Mssr. Whitelaw is correct. Your lack of concern for other humans is chilling.
All earthlings are my concern as we all share this little ball of mud together in the cold vast distances of space.

Don't worry though. Lack of compassion is not (usually) fatal, merely an indicator as to the state of harmony/health of your soul. We, on the outside of your skin, perceive your pain and suffering and understand that it blocks your sensitivity to others. Come. Let me help you...show me your pain.

-- pliney the younger (pliney@puget.sound), February 07, 2000.

If it's a crisis, it's a "manufactured" crisis.

Actually, while temperatures here in the northeast have been on the "brisk" side, degree-day evaluations show no *significant* change from an "average" year. Oil usage and demand follows degree-days.

Two relatively mild winters previous and increases in the "spot" markets for petroleum recently from overseas "price gouging" have lulled oil retailers to run inventories low in the hope that they might be able to "squeek" through until the spring. Meanwhile, those suppliers that are now falling short due to the "cold spurt" and are forced to buy are raising their prices to match their replacement cost while maintaining their profit margin. Those who carried inventory adequate and normal are now reaping the benefits (and profits) of a "rising market."

Speculation and fear are also driving the market. Like any commodity, fuel prices (or tulips) are a function of willingness to pay, fear, and desire for a "quick killing."

It'll all straighten out eventually, except for that overseas price gouging business. (Actually that will straighten out too, it'll just take a little longer.) The thing that the overseas people forget is that their best interest is served as long as the "status quo" remains in force. We like to be docile, quiet, and well fed sheep. "Price gouging" is likely to cause a "counterreaction" from the American buying public, which while resulting in a moribund and stagnent economy here in this country, will hurt elsewhere worse.

Wood pile looking better and better.

Best regards,

-- Joe (KEITH@neesnet.com), February 07, 2000.

David, in answer to both your question and matt's reply, I present the latest OPIS report. As you can see, rising prices are one thing. Not having heating oil is another, and a far worse state of affairs. I'd have to question whether spending several nights in below freezing temperatures is something matt would consider a crisis?

2000-02-07 11:13:05 EST

***REPORTS OF TERMINAL OUTAGES, ALLOCATIONS ALONG EAST COAST CONTINUE

Distillate wholesales and retailers awoke this morning to discover that they were being faced with new terminal outages and product allocations as far south as Savannah, Georgia.

Colonial Oil this morning served notice to all Savannah customers, that allocations were in effect on high and low sulfur diesel liftings. In a memo, Colonial advised its customers that heating oil could only be loaded from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. on weekdays. Colonial expected to be out of product over the weekend and didn't expect to be re-supplied until Feb. 20.

Effective 2/4, Parker Oil and First Energy Corp. put its contract customers on allocation possibly for the remainder of the month. Customers were informed that they could not exceed their contracted volume on distillates.

Belle Vernon, Pa. based Guttman Oil Friday informed its customers that they were experiencing terminal outages and midday rack prices changes. They were therefore unable to establish a firm price on distillates and informed their customers to contact their sales rep for a firm price quote.

And in the Richmond/Chesapeake, Va. area Exxon informed its branded suppliers that they would have to allocate distillates until further notice. One source told OPIS that as of Friday the Chesapeake terminal was out of high and low sulfur fuels.

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), February 07, 2000.

bold off too.

-- (off@off.off), February 07, 2000.

My father-in-law owns a heating oil co. He stated, as of yesterday, #2 fuel oil had risen to $2.05/gallon and in extremely limited supply. We reside in the Chesapeake region of the Northeast. Problem? What problem? September 12, 1929- Investor 1: "The Dow has gone down 2 days in a row". Investor 2- "Don`t worry, it`s only temporary. The market will surely rebound, because as you well know, this is the best economy we`ve had in over a generation." Oct. 1929- you know the rest.

-- NoJo (RSKeiper@aol.com), February 07, 2000.

Gas Price analysis - New Jersey Shore

August 99 - REG $.98 gallon Febry 00 - REG $1.35 gallon

Data indicates increase. Will put together a committee to study whether or not further studies need to be done, or new committees need to be formed, and will include results in our Year 2001 report.

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), February 07, 2000.

Diesel prices still going up throughout the northeast region.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), February 07, 2000.

Just wait till the thirty-day cycle for industries and businesses to start posting the secondary and tertiary price impacts on everyday items.

When a loaf of bread reflects the higher costs of transport of the ingredients, the higher costs to bake the bread, the higher costs to deliver it to the store and the increase in the cost of the plastic wrapper because of higher feed stock prices to the plastic bag maker...

Al Gore had better thank his stars that the big primaries should all be over before this hits, because once the round of price increases caused by the fuel hikes kick in, nobody associated with the currect administration will escape the public backlash of this one.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), February 07, 2000.