greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), February 07, 2000


Point taken.

-- number six (control_system_guru?@cute_once.com), February 07, 2000.

...and ignoring sub-par-IQ "myth debunkers" is a percentage play.

-- number six (#@#.com), February 07, 2000.

Touhg to typer legiblyi frounm the floor!!!!!



-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), February 07, 2000.

You did get Stephen Poole's permission to reproduce his (ahem!) intellectual property, didn't you, Cherri? Oh of course you did, silly me! Well, at least he's not cartooning fun of Floyd victims this time.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), February 07, 2000.

"It's Not Just Y2K"

For a great many months, the major purpose of this forum has been concern about Y2K glitches and the possible--POSSIBLE--problems they might cause. A good case can be made that had there not been such concern from some people, there might be a somewhat different story to tell today, especially with the 25 million small businesses in this country. The "iron triangle" and other crucial underpinnings of our relatively comfortable lives have stayed intact and (most of us) awoke once again to easily-produced hot, freshly ground coffee and breakfast foods ranging from simple toast and marmalade to eggs Benedict and crab omelettes (not to mention aspirin and copious quantities of water). A satisfying breakfast is accompanied by the morning paper(s), television and radio reports of the fabulous Millennium celebrations in every nook and cranny of the world--and by our own PCs and dear old TB2K. I know I'm in a stunningly large crowd of TB2K people who think it's bloody marvellous (and a bit of a relief) to have such super convenience, as I sip my gloriously aromatic Millstone butter rum coffee.

There are many questions on DOTB2K this morning centering around, "where do we go from here?" From my vantage point ("It's not just Y2K"), and having been a bit involved in soliciting forum help for the Oklahoma tornado victims and Floyd's human and animal victims (and let's not forget Chicken Little performed sterling work with animals after Floyd), I see no reason why we should not continue helping each other out, anticipating problems, offering various sorts of advice for best buys on, say, solar equipment (the price of electricity ain't goin' down folks!), and who has a better mousetrap (although my cat-hair-in-the-attic remedy worked, it may not always!).

There are also other issues of concern to the average TB2Ker--the safety of various industrial plants likely to cause us problems, pollution, and so on.

We've learned a great deal from this forum, far too much for me to list here. I hope we can go on educating each other in between offering helping hands. I've often compared this forum to a neighborhood bar--and if you've lived in a place like New Orleans, you know what I mean. Neighborhood bars are wonderful places and, if you're a stranger in town, are the best places to meet and get to know the friendly and helpful locals.

There will always be those who like to see the sight of their own words (lofty or profane), rather than assist with practicalities but that's part of a neighborhood bar scene. Much of that wordiness has been lately contained within the chat rooms and I believe those venues have helped TB2K immensely--ideas are tried out before a severe public and some die before they can clog up the forum. Bok, especially, has done yeoman service by starting the first chatroom and guiding it to a successful entity in its own right. Even chronic disruptors have been dealt with by the simple expedient of moving to another room, thereby avoiding the flying bottles and chairs.

For me, the most memorable piece of information I learned during this current hiatus is that a complete stranger will offer life-saving help with a shrug of the shoulders. I want to thank Sharon for obtaining extra quantities of prescription medicine on my behalf. And a note--until I participated in this forum I had no idea that pharmacies operated on such a tighly-controlled JIT system or that it was impossible to refill a prescription more than seven days before it ran out. So let us simply go on, as we have for so many months, posting news to this forum which we believe will help the majority--because it's not just Y2K.

(Bulldog, if you're reading this, please get in touch with Diane and connect with me--there are lots of people on this forum who are worried about you and Chelsea and wish to help.)

"We'll tak a cup of kindness yet, for auld lang syne."

Asked by Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com) from on January 01, 2000

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), February 07, 2000.

Old Git,

Very well said...and the "neighborhood bar" analogy was exquisite! Now look what you've done -- I know I won't ever be able to shake this visual, and I'll probably find myself telling the kids I'm goin' to the bar...


I hear ya...I'm not yet assured that all is ok, but let's move on. Come on and join us in lots of other fascinating discussions. I know I'd be interested in your input. I don't know, maybe you already are involved in some...I don't have time to go through all the threads.

-- eve (eve_rebekah@yahoo.com), February 07, 2000.

Re: Contradictions in Terms

Posted by ( Cherri on January 04, 2000 at 23:52:58:

In Reply to: Contradictions in Terms posted by Bad Company on January 04, 2000 at 19:05:47:

"I've had a real shitty year, just wanted to try to start it out on a positive note. Guess I will just leave so all of my ditzy posts won't irritate anyone any more."

Cherri: Would you please do that for us here at TB2000? Thank you.

-- bardou (bardou@ballonneyy.xcom), February 06, 2000.

-- posts to ponder (posttoponderrr@poststoponderrr.xcom), February 07, 2000.


FEMA Urges Consumers To Keep Y2K Preparedness Items

While the Y2K bug didn't bite, the preparations Americans made just in case are still valid. FEMA Director James Lee Witt is encouraging those who bought bottled water and extra food, batteries, flashlights and other equipment in anticipation of Y2K problems to keep the items on hand.

"FEMA recommends that families always have a disaster supply kit that contains items you'd need if services were unavailable for a few days," said Witt. "Those families that prepared for Y2K were doing the right thing whether those supplies were needed over New Year's or not."

Some news outlets have been reporting that people are returning batteries, flashlights and generators, among other Y2K preparedness items.

"Being prepared for a winter storm, a hurricane or earthquake is good policy," Witt said. "We congratulate those who prepared for Y2K and urge them to begin the new year prepared for any eventuality."

Witt added that those who bought more food than they can easily store, might want to consider donating it to area food banks.

Disaster Supply Kit Information

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), February 07, 2000.


Does "There is none so BLIND ..." apply to...

Those who built the $50 million Y2K Information Coordination Center?

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001mUs"> http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001mUs

The National Guard?



Troops also have provided statewide disaster relief during earthquakes and floods. Spokesmen say the Guard would be ready for just about anything the New Year might bring -- including massive power outages.

"For the Y2K phenomena, we're ready with fuel. For example, generator crews, we have 50 of them, we have trucks, C130s, Blackhawks and Chinooks (helicopters) and people and shelters and armories and so on," said California National Guard Col. Terry Knight.

Crews at California's Office of Emergency Services will also be on duty round the clock through New Year's weekend.

"We are connected with all the counties by satellite with generators so even if there was a problem we would be able to communicate with one another to help protect public safety," said the agency's Tom Mullins.





Preparing for 18 months, the agency's officials have rehearsed a multitude of scenarios, including explosions, power outages and nuclear disaster.


If you do agree with gist of the cartoon you posted, then you should be contacting your Senators and Representitives and demanding accountability on the money our government spent on Y2K. Personally, I think what the government did to prepare for Y2K was prudent.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), February 07, 2000.

Didn't you know? The government spent all that money because ... the doomers made them do it! Who could make this stuff up?

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), February 07, 2000.

Just when you thought it was safe to come out of the closet... Here's Cherri back to take pleasure rubbing your face in the dirt. Thanks Cherri, mighty lady like of you.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), February 07, 2000.

Have you been talking to my husband, Pro? "Old Goat" is one of his nicknames for me, although I think his tone of voice might be different to yours.

No, it's NOT revisionist. The vast majority of people on this board did NOT think Armageddon was headed this way. You only remember the outspoken ones--perhaps as some of us might only remember the outspoken ones from Debunker and Big Fat Idiot. I said "it's not just Y2K" so many times that I was embarrassed about THAT, but that's the only thing I'm embarrassed about.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), February 07, 2000.

Did anyone else notice the attempt at revisionist history by a well- known Y2K "optimist" at the link Steve Heller provided? Specifically, this paragraph...


THEN OTHERS SET OUT TO CONVINCE MORE. WE KNOW THE PEAK OF THE Y2k FEAR BULL......WAS DECEMBER, 1998 and the Senate Report of March of 1999 was the Kiss of Death for many of the Merchants. THAT was "covered up" by the Doomers but Cody Varian slipped and put it online in a post in MAY, "Anyone else notice how business has slowed down??".


I did notice a sharp drop-off in Y2K news coverage in mid-March of 1999, but it's always been my suspicion that if it was due to anything specific, the drop-off was due to the March 10, 1999 media conference called "Y2K: The Press and Preventing Panic":


The first Senate report was the "Kiss of Death" for Y2K preparedness? I don't see either the first or the second Senate report as having been especially optimistic about the potential outcome of Y2K. Both the first and second reports by the Senate Y2K committee received extensive coverage and commentary on this forum.

Here's an article about the first report issued by the Senate Y2K committee. It appeared on the front page of the Washington Post:


Senate Study: Y2K Risks Are Widespread

By Stephen Barr

Washington Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, February 24, 1999; Page A1

A report on the Year 2000 computer problem prepared by a special Senate panel warns that a number of foreign countries and U.S. economic sectors, especially the health care industry, appear at significant risk for technological failures and business disruptions.

The report, scheduled for release this week by Sens. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah) and Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), includes a letter to Senate colleagues describing the problem of computers' ability to recognize dates starting on Jan. 1, 2000, popularly known as Y2K, as a "worldwide crisis" and as "one of the most serious and potentially devastating events this nation has ever encountered."

The prospect of widespread computer glitches and lobbying by industry groups have galvanized bipartisan groups in the Senate and House to press for legislation protecting companies that fail to deliver goods and services on time because of Y2K problems.

Rep. David Dreier (R-Calif.) estimated yesterday there might be $1 trillion in lawsuits filed because of the glitch and urged adoption of an industry-backed House bill to allay "a great deal of fear regarding out-of-control litigation."

A draft copy of the Senate report, provided by staff aides to The Washington Post, describes in vivid detail the scope of the potential Y2K problem and the frustrations that Senate investigators encountered as they tried to gather information from industries reluctant to describe what progress they have made in fixing computer and telecommunication systems.

But the report represents the most comprehensive assessment of the Y2K problem to appear as companies and governments scramble to fix their computer systems. In addition to health care, the report portrays the oil, education, farming, food processing and construction sectors as seriously lagging on computer repairs.

Among the report's findings: More than 90 percent of doctors' offices and 50 percent of small- and medium-sized companies have not addressed the Y2K problem; telephone systems are expected to operate; and planes will not fall out of the sky. The Senate panel also worries that communities will not be able to provide "911" and other emergency services.

Even though governments and corporations have mobilized technology staffs and consultants to sift through millions of lines of software code looking for Y2K glitches, the 161-page draft also underscores how little experts know about the potential impact of the so-called millennium bug.

"The interdependent nature of technology systems makes the severity of possible disruptions difficult to predict. Adding to the confusion, there are still very few overall Year 2000 technology compliance assessments of infrastructure or industry sectors. Consequently, the fundamental questions of risk and personal preparedness cannot be answered at this time," the draft said.

Clinton administration officials have portrayed the Y2K problem as similar to a severe winter snowstorm that causes inconveniences but little lasting harm. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan assured Americans that they can keep their money in the bank over New Year's 2000 without fear.

"There's almost no conceivable way . . . that computers will break down and records of people's savings accounts would disappear," he told the Senate Banking Committee.

Still, almost all government agencies are drawing up emergency plans, including the Fed, which plans to stockpile an extra $200 billion in cash for banks, about a third more than usual.

The Senate report, which grew out of a series of hearings last year by the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, concludes "that the biggest Y2K impact will occur internationally."

Two important trading partners, Japan and Venezuela, seem to have miscalculated the time and money needed to fix the computer glitch, according to the draft report.

Relying on surveys by consultants, the report suggests that Japan "may have underestimated the resources needed to address the problem," noting that major Japanese banks have indicated far lower repair costs than U.S. banks.

Venezuela and Saudi Arabia lag from a year to 18 months behind the United States in Y2K preparations, raising concerns about the availability of oil and other critical imports, the report said.

International ports are widely described as far behind in their Y2K efforts, prompting worries that the maritime industry will face shipping problems that could interrupt commerce, the report added.

International aviation and foreign airports also appear at risk, and "flight rationing to some areas and countries is possible," the report said.

Overall, the report said, "the least-prepared countries are those that depend heavily on foreign investment and multinational companies to supplement their economies. Panic over Y2K concerns may cause investors to withdraw financial support. Lack of confidence in a country's infrastructure could cause multinational companies to close their operations."

The Y2K problem exists in millions of lines of software code that uses two digits to represent four-digit years. Unfixed, computers will assume that dates occurring after Dec. 31 use the prefix "19," leading software programs to read "00" not as 2000 but as 1900. That defect could cause computers to crash or spew out incorrect data.

In assessing U.S. preparedness, the draft report reserved some of its strongest language for the health care industry, concluding it "is one of the worst-prepared for Y2K and carries a significant potential for harm."

The industry relies on computers for patient treatment, insurance claims and pharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution. While large hospitals are pushing to fix their computers, the report described hospital management as "playing a catch-up game."

Many hospitals are relying solely on medical device manufacturers to certify products as Y2K-compliant, which the report said "could be a serious mistake."

The report cited rural and inner-city hospitals as at special risk because they do not have the staff or money to find and fix Y2K glitches.

In an effort to head off a potential avalanche of lawsuits caused by Y2K glitches, a bipartisan group of House members yesterday introduced a bill to address litigation issues. Sen. John McCain (R- Ariz.) has introduced a similar bill, and Sens. Orrin G. Hatch (R- Utah) and Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) plan to announce their version today.

Although the House bill has the support of major business organizations, Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), the measure's principal author, stressed that the measure was "pro-consumer" because it will "encourage businesses to come in and fix their problems."

The Year 2000 Readiness and Responsibility Act would require plaintiffs to give notice to potential defendants about their difficulties, wait 30 days for a response and give the defendant an additional 60 days to fix a glitch before suing.

Under the bill, plaintiffs may recover actual damages, but punitive damages would be capped.

Staff writer Guy Gugliotta contributed to this report.

) Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company


-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), February 07, 2000.

The second Senate Y2K report, from September of 1999, can be read at this link:


-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), February 07, 2000.

Linkmeister, Steve, the only way one could have gone into the rollover pessimistically was by methodically overlooking the overwhelming positive reports of y2k readiness by Koskinen, the last Senate reports, industry, the mainstream media, and instead finding any single sentence that "looked bad" and thus paint a doomsday portrait that never was......this, my friends, is the legacy of TimeBomb 2000, and you were both major contributers to ...the myth of Y2K doomsday :)

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), February 07, 2000.


That's your opinion. It was clear by the actions of business and government--and the contingency plans they developed--that they believed there was a possibility of significant Y2k disruptions. They had their Y2K contingency plans, and I had mine.

I never predicted that Y2K would either be "doomsday" or a "10." I advocated preparation for an uncertain future in 2000. If you honestly believed last year that the chances of Y2K causing significant disruptions in 2000 was zero, then you should be be contacting your Senators and Representitives and demanding accountability concerning the money our government spent preparing for Y2K.

Again, I personally think that what the government did to prepare for Y2K was prudent. And for anyone interested, the last Y2K Senate committee report (there were two) is at the link right before FactFinder's message. The Executive Summmary of the second and last report (from September) is at this link:


-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), February 08, 2000.

Yes Linkmeister, that was just my opinion, worth two cents on a good day, lol. But still, should I post links and requote all the good news I posted here that was sumarily dismissed by you, ney, even countered by you with your own doomsday list? ;)

-- FactFinder (david@bzn.com), February 08, 2000.


If you were to post the links and all the good news you've posted here in the past about Y2K, what it would show is that there was quite a bit of information last year suggesting that Y2K would not be "the end of the world as we know it." That, I had no problems with, because I did not think TEOTWAWKI was likely, and for that matter, neither did Ed Yourdon.

However, what those links and quotes you've posted in the past would not prove, however, is that the chance of significant Y2K problems was zero. Sure, there were a lot of optimistic statements out there by John Koskinen, and quite a few companies issued optimistic press releases. What was said by elected government officials with accountability, though, indicated uncertainty about how Y2K would turn out.

"Doomsday list"? I suppose you're referring to government and mainstream sources of information I've referred to in the past like these...

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001wGv"> http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001wGv

You seem to be surprised that I have linked to this information again. Remember, though, I wasn't the one who started this thread. And it would be revisionist history at this point for anyone to claim that all reputable sources lasted year pointed to Y2K being trivial.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), February 09, 2000.

I hate typos!

Not all reputable sources last year pointed to the outcome of Y2K as being trivial:


-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), February 09, 2000.

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