Many Americans are confident that the Cold War is over, and happily believe the Criminal in Chief when he says that no nuclear missiles are aimed at sleeping American children. Well, guess what... .

The Chinese leadership believes war with the US is inevitable. They were spurred to begin a radical revision of their military strategy after the Gulf War, when they saw the effect of technological superiority against an army that in many ways was similar to their own. Prior to the Gulf War the Chinese depended on vast quantities of soldiers and relatively simple armor and aircraft. They lacked strategic missile forces and the ability to project conventional force (that is, strategic airlift capability and a blue-water navy).

All that has begun to change. The Chinese realize that technology in relatively small quantities is a major force multiplier, and have set out to obtain as much advanced technology as they can from whatever quarter- and by any means necessary. They have bought a good deal of warfighting equipment from the Russians, including major naval assets and aircraft. They seek any opportunity to add advanced data processing and manufacturing capablity to their industrial base (many American multinationals are only too happy to cooperate here).

There are a number of estimates as to when the Chinese may feel ready to take on the US, ranging from just a few years to 12-15 years. They have already made threats against the continental US, which they can reach with nuclear missiles they now have. Advanced computing technology they recently obtained, along with the remains of the F-117 stealth fighter shot down in Kosovo, have enabled them to build air defenses capable of detecting steathy aircraft. The Chinese are obtaining forward bases in strategic locations (the Panama Canal, the Bahamas, etc.) as rapidly as possible. And so on, ad nauseam.

Some of you who are aware of the current news may protest that the House just voted to support Taiwan through various defense measures, a seeming slap in the face to the Communist Chinese. Just keep watching, when the Communist Chinese bid for membership in the WTO and renewal of most-favored-nation trade status comes around. See who rallies to their support over critical issues like these, which allow the Chinese military buildup to continue apace.

LPL ==================================================================

February 2, 2000

Pentagon study finds China preparing for war with U.S. By Bill Gertz THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Strategic writings by China's military and party leaders show that China is making plans for war, according to a new Pentagon study. Some 600 translations of internal Chinese writings by 200 authors reveal China's strategy to defeat a superior foe, using both military and nonmilitary means, such as propaganda, deception and covert action. They also reveal the extreme distrust of the United States by China's military and party leaders. Chinese generals state that the United States intentionally bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, last May as part of a long-term strategy to prompt an arms race that will cause China's collapse. The Chinese statements from the mid-1990s through last year discuss issues normally couched in secrecy inside China. They appear in the book "China Debates the Future Security Environment," published last month for the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment, the unit in charge of long-range planning. The translations were edited by Michael Pillsbury, a defense policy planner in the Reagan administration who is fluent in Chinese. The official Chinese views from Communist Party and military officials contradict other claims by the Beijing government that China poses no threat to the United States or other nations. Chinese strategists plan to use a combination of Marxist-Leninist doctrine and ancient Chinese tactics against the United States, which is compared in Chinese military writings as a "hegemon" on a par with Nazi Germany. Gen. Li Jijun, described as one of China's most distinguished military authors, states that the United States engineered the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as a "strategic misdirection" or deception. Other Chinese authors state the United States is working covertly to "dismember" western China, namely Tibet and Xinjiang. The report is a public document, but the Pentagon is limiting its distribution, presumably because of its stark disclosures of Chinese military thinking. According to the book, the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping set the current military strategy for dealing with the world's only superpower in the slogan "bide our time and build up our capabilities." A key debate among Chinese military and party writers is how rapidly the United States will decline, a view based on the Marxist ideas on the collapse of capitalism. The book quotes Gen. Xiong Guankai, the Chinese deputy chief of staff for intelligence, who finished three days of Pentagon meetings last week, as one of China's hard-line theorists. "Any efforts for seeking hegemony and world domination can only result in accumulating contradictions and fermenting war," Gen. Xiong was quoted as saying in a speech at Harvard University. Chinese plans also discuss means of taking out U.S. aircraft-carrier battle groups. Chinese writer Ying Nan says the groups have numerous vulnerabilities. The United States sent two such groups to waters near Taiwan in 1996 in response to Chinese military exercises aimed at the island. Mr. Ying stated that weaker Chinese forces could defeat the huge carriers because the groups are hard to conceal from radar, are less effective in bad weather and are hampered by shallow water or when operating close to the coast. Carriers also are vulnerable to repeated attacks with precision weapons fired from unmanned aircraft and to electronic warfare from small ships, offshore islands and aerial balloons that can "create confusion in the electromagnetic environment," he stated. Carrier battle groups also can be defeated by advanced submarines and by attacks on their support ships because the carriers' anti-submarine capabilities are "relatively poor," Mr. Ying states. Mr. Ying also cited the carriers' elevators, catapult launchers and arrester wires as "extremely vulnerable" to precision strikes that would make the ships useless. Chinese military strategists also draw upon the 1991 Persian Gulf war. Chinese tactics  pre-emptive attacks before allied forces had massed, covert attacks inside Saudi Arabia and operations to split the U.S.-led coalition  could have won for Iraq, they wrote. China now seeks to avoid head-on confrontation until around 2030, when the Chinese expect U.S. power to decline significantly. However, a war between China and the United States could erupt over Taiwan, according to the Chinese authors. Strategist Gao Hen wrote a U.S. defense of Taiwan would cause a major war of "global and historic implications." China also plans electronic attacks on computer networks. "We can make the enemy's command centers not work by changing their data system," wrote Maj. Gen. Pan Junfeng. "We can cause the enemy's headquarters to make incorrect judgments by sending disinformation."

-- Lee (lplapinXOUT@hotmail.com), February 03, 2000

Answers

Wasn't it Kipling who warned about a hundred years ago about the "yellow peril?"

Best regards,

-- Joe (KEITH@noosnet.com), February 04, 2000.

Lee,

It is only a matter of time....

snoozin'...

The Dog

-- The Dog (dogdesert@hotmail.com), February 06, 2000.