OT - A Few Signs of the Coming Bear Market in Stocksgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
From Fiend's SuperBear Page========================================
"The one major distinction that the forthcoming bear market is going to have compared to previous bear markets is the amount of obvious warnings investors have had."
"Never before has there been so many signs that a serious bear market was on the horizon..."
"Dow transports down 30% from 3,700 in April 1998 Margin debt increasing... in November/December surged to levels that have alarmed even the most bullish analysts NYSE advance/decline line at lowest level since August 1996 The number of new 52 week highs on the NYSE never came close to the peaks seen in 1995, 1996, and 1997.
Only twenty-five stocks make up more than a third of the total U.S. stock market capitalization. Total U.S. stock market capitalization 150% of GDP (Twice that prior to the 1929 Crash)
Interest rates have skyrocketed since hitting a bottom back in October 1998 Yield curve has completely inverted up to the two-year note
The U.S. trade deficit has increased dramatically Stock market investing has completely soaked into popular culture
More people involved in the stock market than at any other time
Unprecedented speculation in IPOs - Companies with no earnings and hardly and revenues commanding IPO market capitalizations in the billions
Consumer confidence is at its highest level in a generation
Savings rate hit an all time low last year
The idea that we are in a new economic era were traditional rules no longer apply has now been generally accepted
Rock bottom dividend yields and P/E ratios that are way above anything seen late in an economic cycle
Most of the key stocks within the Nasdaq have P/E ratios of more than 50 and even into the hundreds. S&P 500's P/E ratio is over thirty which is about double its historical average...and double the 1929 P/E ratio"
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-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), February 01, 2000
There are many ways of seeing things. Try this, what if everyone is saying that the stock market is oversold and a bear market will soon arrive. Now contrarion thinking states that when 80% of people feel the top or bottom has been reached it will go the opposite direction to everyones thinking. So using that logic could it be argued that the value of money has topped and we are in for a huge value push down (ie. inflation) that will catch up to the prices on the stock market. Justthinkin
-- justthinkin com (justthinkin@stock.com), February 01, 2000.
So Ray, here's the money question:Are you long or short?
'Cuz otherwise yer jus' blowin' smoke.
-- I'mSo (lame@prepped.com), February 01, 2000.
Lame One, just presenting a few interesting facts that MOST of the forum participants will easily be able to comprehend. For those LAME minded folks, I can point YOU to some basic reading and comprehension courses.Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), February 01, 2000.