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ISSUE 45, DATE: 2000-01-24

Moscow arming anti-Western states

Russia, China, Iran resist U.S. world domination

Col. Vladimir Mukhin is military correspondent for Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As relations with its Western neighbors deteriorates, Russia seeks to tighten bonds with its Eastern neighbors - through the sale of advanced weapons.. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- As anti-Russian rhetoric rises among the United States and its Western partners, Moscows military policy is increasingly concerned with finding new strategic partners in Asia. Signs of this are recent visits to Russia by Iranian national security High Council Secretary Hassan Rouhani and by Chinese Defense Minister Ji Haotian.

Though not top-ranking figures in their countries, the two visitors were met in Moscow at the highest level. More important, they were assured that contacts with their countries, including military contacts, would be developed.

Both Iran and China are Russias neighbors, both have authoritarian, undemocratic regimes, and both are currently going through an economic upturn that could bring Moscow the money it needs to overcome its own economic crisis. In return, Russia would supply the weapons and technology that Iran and China want, and that the United States and other democratic and developed countries dont want them to have.

Its hard to say whether the Russian authorities fully understand all the consequences this kind of cooperation would have. But the possibility of further NATO expansion, the Wests lack of understanding over Russias having to resort to military force in Chechnya and the international financial organizations ongoing refusal to make loans available are all pushing Moscow toward this search for new partners. In the Asian region, India aside, Russias immediate potential partners are China and Iran.

It was probably no coincidence that acting President Vladimir Putin, meeting with the Chinese defense minister on Jan. 18, said that "a very good base has been laid for further cooperation between Moscow and Beijing," and that "one of the first visits by the new Russian president will be to China."

Moscow and Beijing need each other. Russia is helping the Chinese army to arm and is planning to extend the list of licenses it accords to China for production of various types of weaponry. According to daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta, one Chinese aircraft factory has begun assembling 200 Su-27 SK aircraft. China is also to receive two "Sovremenny" class destroyers and a whole range of other naval equipment including ultrasonic anti-ship Moskit missiles. China is so far the only country to purchase Moskit missiles.

But probably the most significant aspect of military cooperation between Russia and China is what Nezavisimaya Gazeta called their aim to "resist American expansion." The newspaper doesnt rule out that, should the United States develop an anti-ballistic missile defense system, the 1996 treaty signed between Moscow and Beijing on peaceful conquest of space could become "a military-political agreement with all its ensuing consequences."

In other words, Russia and China could deploy their own joint strategic defense and anti-ballistic missile systems in response to U.S. programs.

Russian-Iranian contacts have a similar anti-American flavor. Meeting with Rouhani on Jan. 14, Russian Defense Minister Marshal Igor Sergeyev said that contacts with Iran "are progressing well in the military, military technology, scientific and energy sectors." Sergeyev also assured the Iranian side that Moscow intended to "fulfill all its commitments under the agreements concluded by the two countries in 19891990."

These words dont look like mere coincidence. Washingtons disapproval of Russian military contacts with Iran are perfectly well-known. In 1997, after signing a memorandum with Iran on export controls, Russia said quite clearly that it would have no military contacts with Iran and that earlier commitments would all have been carried out within the next few years.

Now, it looks as if Moscow is backing away from that 1997 statement. Iran is now one of the few Middle East countries that produces its own tanks, armored personnel carriers and so on  all using Soviet licenses. True, Moscow has backed off helping Iran in its missile programs, but it is known that Iran is using Soviet technology to produce Scud missiles and is perhaps selling them to third countries.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov announced that Iran could soon launch a tender in Russia for the construction of another three reactors for its Bushere nuclear power station, built by Russian specialists. Klebanov also said a project to produce Russian Tu-334 planes in Iran is at signature stage.

The U.S. has repeatedly expressed concern over the possibility that Iran could develop nuclear weapons. Whether the Russian-built nuclear reactors can help Iran do this is a question for the specialists. But reserve colonel and former Russian airforce pilot Gennady Makarov said that any 100-seater transcontinental aircraft, such as the Tu-334, could be used as a military transport plane and perhaps even as a strategic bomber.

Iran refuses to accept U.S. hegemony and, at the same time, Washington sees Iran as a threat to its national security. For better or for worse, Russia is helping Iran build up its defense potential. For the moment, Russia is not afraid of the neighbors it is busy arming.

Russia, China and Iran form a group of countries along with India which are attempting to resist U.S. leadership in the world. What will come of all this is not certain, but that there is confrontation is clear. Russia is participating in this confrontation, and that is not a healthy situation.