$30 dollar oil means we are facing 'something' (Y2K maybe?) equivalent to the "Iran hostages crisis " or the "Iran-Irak war" or " Desert Storm". Nothing less.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Market forces are supposed to be 'wise', right?, in that they represent the total summation (E) of the infinite factors which affect the price equation of oil.

The international price of oil is as good as it gets as far as supply and demand forces is concerned, and has never exceeded $20 dollars except in the instances stated above. Spring and summer driving are yet to come in the Northern Hemisphere where heavy consumption takes place, so if current supply trend continues, the whole world is in for a bumpy ride rather than a bump in the road.

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 27, 2000


And for those folks that don't feel comfortable about Y2K being the real cause of $30 dollar oil, for the sake of argument let's just call it


which stands for "Statistically High Significant Incidence Of Accidents And Failures Of Unknown Origin Some Months Before And After the Century Date Change". Good enough?

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 27, 2000.

george, why don't we call it:


A Small Minority Of People Hoping And Praying That Some Disaster Will Happen Due To The Century Change So That They Wont Look Completely Stupid.

-- Mr. Sane (hhh@home.com), January 27, 2000.

Mr. Sane, let's hear your explanation for the high incidence of refinery snafus since the rollover. -s-

-- Scott Johnson (scojo@yahoo.com), January 27, 2000.

George, thanks for pointing out the fact the crude has only been over $20 during those periods.

Mr. Insane, any chance you could post something RELEVANT??


-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 27, 2000.

Ray, my posts are always completely relevant, don't you get it yet?

ps, the nick's "Mr. Sane", don't get personal now.

-- Mr. Sane (hhh@home.com), January 27, 2000.

You know George no matter what Mr Insane thinks(not), we are seeing a an economic disaster building very rapidly with the oil situation, world wide. The incidents are showing up on our side of the y2k equation very rapidly and they seem to be escalating. I was about to lower my guard on y2k, but I think I'll just thank God that we made it through the turnover date ok, and now we have real evidence that its going to happen and going to get worse. And you know what the media has taken the heat and the spot lite off of the y2k group, just in time to protect us. Just sit back and watch (and talk to the forum) justthinkin@y2k.com

-- justthtink com (justthinkin@y2k.com), January 27, 2000.

Mr. Sane, Why must you ALWAYS be attacking some folks on this forum.

Do you take DELIGHT in this activity??

Do you enjoy standing in JUDGEMENT of people??

Try posting a true advesarial position without a personal attack.

You obviously didn't appreciate my changing your handle to Insane.


-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 27, 2000.

As I posted on another list, check out www.dieoff.org for a source referencing the oil crisis we face.

-- Nade Davida (sanctuaria@hotmail.com), January 27, 2000.

Actually, George, the price of oil has been *ABOVE* $20 for 6 out of the last 10 years.

And, Nade, increased oil prices tend to slow down the rate at which oil is consumed, delay the inevitable crisis that will occur when the world's flat out productive capacity fails to meet demand, and spur research into alternate energy forms (fuel cells, etc).

So, if you are really concerned about a world that runs out of oil, you should welcome higher current prices.

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), January 27, 2000.

Current oil prices are merely a representation of what has been a particularly successful disiplined OPEC action ot lower global reserves to increase demand. These things happen all the time but usually fall flat as a result of a greedy nation or another that violates their OPEC agreements to make a short-lived but significant profit.

You are not seeing Y2K. You are seeing Adam Smith at work.

-- Sarcasm (is a subtle@virtue.com), January 27, 2000.

Rocky, during the past ten years the price of oil has been barely and rarely above $20 dollars and for very brief periods of time.

Yearly averages have been below (some times, well below) $20 dollars.

The only three instances in which it has been above $30 (and for sustained periods) were those I pointed out in my original thread.

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 27, 2000.

Sarcasm, what you're really saying I guess is that we are seeing OPEC at work, not Adam Smith.

I have a hard time accepting that OPEC has finally gotten its act together though. Furthermore Sarcasm, how would you explain the shortage of gas, kero, diesel, and other refined products? Is it Adam Smith too? Is it OPEC you think? (Never Y2K , of course, that's agreed and settled).

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 27, 2000.

Umm.... Demand is constant. Supply diminishes (result of recent OPEC cartel).....price increases. Sounds like Adam Smith to me. Maybe we follow different economic models. It is theoretically possible that increased prices are not a result of diminished supply, but I'd love for you to explain how that works without a cartel scenario (artificial supply ceiling -- exactly what OPEC is imposing)

In any case, the true purpose behind the diminished supply is not the real issue. The real issue is what effect an increase in oil prices has. Believe it or not, many urban growth studies have shown that an increase in oil prices spurs urban revitalization and decreases the suburban "brain-drain" phenomenon (people tend not to move far enough away so that they have to drive to work), which has the secondary effects of lower urban crime and increased business prospects for small businesses and local economies. A tell-tale sign of this is a decrease in new home building, at that is what we have seen occurring recently.

-- Sarcasm (is a subtle@virtue.com), January 27, 2000.

Sarcasm, we both follow pretty much the same model, Adam Smith included:

Demand constant, supply decreases, prices increase. Fine, we agree.

But we disagree on the reason behind less supply of oil. You say it's OPEC, and I say I don't believe it in this case because they never get their act together so suddenly and with such precision.

As far as the benefits of shortage and price increases for oil, kero, gasoline, diesel, etc, we disagree SHARPLY.

Sarcasm, with $30 dollar for six months, the world is in trouble. With $50 dollar oil for a year, the world is in DEEP trouble.

Furthermore, on top of the oil price problem, the distillates' prices have a life of their own, depending upon how well refineries and pipes are doing. And pleeeeaaase don't tell me that OPEC controls them too, because they don't.

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 27, 2000.

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