Andy and Gordon--I just came across this message site, interesting stuff on gold and oil. A trucker paid over $2.30/gal for diesel and if it gets worse, truckers will simply stop hauling goods and many will loose their rigs.

http://csf.colorado.edu/longwaves/jan00/msg00953.html

-- Bardou (Bardou@baloney.com), January 24, 2000

Answers

snip from link; there is more there, but this should wet everyone's whistles:

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Date: Mon Jan 24 2000 00:35 mozel (@Somethin' Is Happenin' sorta' like Y2K) ID#153110: Copyright ) 1999 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "X is a long haul trucker. Today he called me from Boston with bad news. He left home in xx and when he got to Pennsy he had to fill up. Fuel oil was 1.60 a Gal.. I said wow that's high. He said no it gets worse. He made it to NY and filled up at 1.90 a Gal. Wow I said in the same day? He said yes and the independent and lease truckers are selling their CB's and what ever they can to pay for fuel.

Quite a few had no money for food after they filled up. Then he got to Boston tonight and fuel was 2.38 a Gal. He said ... In two days if prices are like this all across the country the truckers will not strike. He said out of necessity they will stop running and the ripple effect will be bad...

What is bad is last summer when fuel oil was 89 cents a gallon over half of the truckers financed new rigs. When these prices went up in two days from 1.20 to 2.28 to 2.50 a gallon these truckers cannot afford to absorb the costs and can't pass it on to the customer. So they cannot afford to run the truck and keep up payments. They go belly up..."

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 24, 2000.

Thanks for the snips Hokie. Wow! So glad we have the preps!

-- carolyn (carolyn@luvmyhub.com), January 24, 2000.

Hokie,

Driving back towards Cleveland tonight on the CB I was hearing about the same figures cited above.

I agree that these price changes will be very rough on the independent truckers. What will happen is what we're seeing already from the airlines -- surcharges imposed by the company carriers. The independents will follow suit and will get a portion of the increase. Not all of it, to be sure. At something in the area of 4 mpg, any change hits those folks hard.

Freight will continue to move; the companies have too large a share for that not to happen. Some freight will get delayed. We will pay those costs, and sometimes immediately. Another of the 'thousand cuts', I suppose.

Isn't going to be fun for folks in, for example, agriculture, either. Even doing no-till (which I don't -- not too fond of the preplant burndown herbicide requirement), farmers can go through an amazing amount of diesel in the spring and fall. And no, per se they will not get any chance to pass the cost along those costs.

-- Redeye in Ohio (cannot@work.com), January 24, 2000.

Thanks Hokie for posting the thread! Bardou

-- bardou (Bardou@baloney.com), January 25, 2000.

Some of that post is hogwash-No money for food after filling up? Never heard of an atm card or credit card? Do you mean to tell me these truckers are that destitute that one day of this kind of expense makes them broke? This is ridiculous and sounds like the making of an urban legend. They need to find another line of work if it is that difficult to make ends meet. Selling CB radios to buy gas? This is totally ludicrous. Try that on someone else, please. I am not saying the poster made it up, but if I did not know any better it sounds like a troll. Yes, there are some increases out there, but are you going to tell me next that these guys are selling their bodies to buy a tank of gas? I've got to go to sleep.

-- futureshock (gray@matter.com), January 25, 2000.

Futureshock, you're really out of touch. There are LOTS of folks out there who live paycheck to paycheck. That these truckers budgeted a certain amount of cash to have on hand for their trip AND the higher fuel prices caused them to take a big hit in their pocketbook isn't as farfetched as you may imagine. Kindly, get off of your cloud with the silver lining (or should I say silver spoon?) and take a moment to consider how the other half lives before you immediately discount this story!

-- LunaC (LunaC@moon.com), January 25, 2000.

Futureshock:

You're in for one should you ever re-emerge from your grey matter. Here on earth things have been hard for truckers already.

Yes. Go back to sleep. Leave the problems and conditions of real life to those who *care* enough to pay attention.

-- tim phronesia (phronesia@webtv.net), January 25, 2000.

I don't know how many gallons a big rig can carry but if you double whatever they were paying before you know it's gotta hurt. We have several trains that pass through here everyday, some with as many as 6 engines that will go through the Feather River Canyon. The price for goods will start to sky rocket whether they are shipped by truck or by train. I'm glad I have my garden because food prices will certainly be high if the oil prices don't drop. There were a lot of truckers that went out of business during the last oil crisis, and this event will find many truckers in the same boat.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), January 25, 2000.

To top off SOME rigs, depending on several things, including the fuel tax stickers on th etruck itself, takes 100 to 175 gals of deisel. Somew MUST buy fuel in specific states because of not having tax stickers.

But don't take MY word for it, try listening to some 11 meters (Chan 19 ought to be good).

BTW Redeye, what part of OH are you in??

Chuck, who drives sedans but knows a LOT of 18 wheel pushers

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 25, 2000.

Somehow I always knew the truckers were on the edge of social change. Convoy!

-- Okie Dan (brendan@theshop.net), January 25, 2000.

Fuel is a major item of independent truckers' expenses.
It's not like Joe Lunchbucket having to pay $20 a week more to commute to work -- Joe can tell his kids to cut back from 3 CDs a week to two, and cut back on one of his 6-packs.
Truckers are caught in a squeeze: The oil corporations can easily and rapdily raise prices. The independent trucker cannot easily and rapidly raise his hauling rates.
It's a very competitive business where just an individual has a tremendous capital investment (his truck), and little control over the return on that investment (ROI). And he has to drive tired and sleepy, on uppers, to make his schedule. If he doesn't, then some other trucker gets the job. Ever wonder why so many truck accidents? Why anyone would want to get into that business is beyond me.

-- A (A@AisA.com), January 25, 2000.

I fly a Grumman Ag-Cat in aerial-application and I burn 38 Gal/hr. of Av-Gas. I usually pay on the average of $1.45/gal. when I buy 10,000 gal. at a time. My av. use a year has been 32,000 gal. I couldn't pass any large raise in cost on to my customers because they are on the brink of financial ruin right now. I would have to quit. This whole thing is eventually going to end up as a question of food supply

-- John Thomas (cjseed@webtv.net), January 25, 2000.

Future Shock finds the trucker's plight unbelievable.

Wait untill he sees what it does to his 401K.

Bubble.com is riding the wave of descretionary income.

-- Tom Beckner (tbeckner@xout.erols.com), January 25, 2000.

Futureshock,

If you've ever gone bankrupt you would know.

Years ago in an attempt to make the big bucks I got caught in the financial sqeaze and when that happened I reacted by selling off what I thought was excess equipment etc. Before you know it you're sitting in Federal Bankruptcy Court answering questions, "What did you do with these assets?" "I sold them to pay bills."

And back then I couldn't even put $500.00 into a credit card in order to gain one. That was fairly common back then for bad credit risk people. May still be a practice. The trucker plight seems possible to me.

-- Mark Hillyard (foster@inreach.com), January 25, 2000.

Glad to see your all in a fierce debating mood! I do empathize with those who live paycheck to paycheck-I am not too far divorced from that state of being. I was only addressing what I thought was hyperbole in the story. BTW I am not heavily invested in the equity market in a 401k because, thought not a bear, I too do not believe in the kind of sustained "growth" the market has been experiencing. I pray for the independent trucker to make it through, but I do not think this will be a "crisis" for long-I know that flies in the face of the myriad of oil experts among our crowd-but let's luck in two weeks. And know, I will not be a polly who throws predictions back in people's faces. This forum needs people who are willing to stare doom in the face and say "hey, prove it". I prepped for 1 month, and never believed in any more than a 2, maybe a 3. There was not enough technical evidence on all the y2k websites, evidence which explained exactly how a system would fail, for me to believe it was going to be any worse. good day, all. peace.

-- futureshock (gray@matter.com), January 25, 2000.

You know, to me, FutureShock is kind of typical of a whole lot of people I know and some I work with. Wouldn't be surprised at a 200k or 300k mortgage, a dozen cards, all close to maxed, new (leased) car every year, soccor camp -- you get the picture. As long as they encounter no serious problems, be it family crisis (divorce, death, drug problems), losing one of their (his and hers) two jobs, and so on, they'll just keep fueling the credit economy. Now, if he (or she) loses their job, or their SO loses theirs, after some months or years of pain, after discovering the wonderful world of workng three of clinton's millions of new jobs -- all without benefits -- maybe the lightbulb will begin to flicker. With some it really never does, somehow.

How do you get into a career like trucking? Well, when you are younger (for example) sometimes the decisions you make are more on romanticism than on cold economics. Haven't looked at new road tractors for a long time, but I'd not be at all surprised if new road tractors go for waaay over 100k. Add another 40k for a trailer. (Gulp and start thinking 'used' and the maintenance that goes with used...) Don't even ask about all the taxes -- just think about all the 'hidden' taxes you all pay -- look at you phone or cellphone bill sometime.

And BTW, the licensing changes in the last ten years have weeded out a lot of the bennie-popping truckers carrying multiple licenses. Make that most of... Can it be done? Yes -- if you make darn sure you are very, very creative with your log book. Warning: Cops flat love busting truckers doing that stuff.

I am not in trucking but part of me is in another line of business -- ag; I am still paying for some decisions not made better in my past. Yes, bankruptcy would have been the smarter financial choice.

I know soooo many people who are good, hardworking people, as honest as the day is long, who have never been able to save much beyond paycheck to paycheck. Living in constant low-grade fear is not fun. Please remember that many of those folks are doing the service jobs that we all depend upon, at all hours of the day.

No sermon was intended, folks, really. What is the biblical saying about walking in another's shoes?

Chuck, I am in Northeast Ohio. Work in Cleveland, in I.T., farm southeast of same. Kindof figure you know this area also, no?

-- Redeye in Ohio (cannot@work.com), January 25, 2000.

If you get a few hundred independent truckers going belly up, you'll see shortages start to appear on your grocery and shopping mall shelves. Inventories will back up in warehouses and factories will slow down production. Fruits and vegetables may rot in the fields and we will see food shortages if the oil crunch doesn't turn around. Some excellent points were made here on credit debt and the day to pay the piper is almost here.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), January 25, 2000.

Redeye in Ohio pretty much hit the nail square on. He touched on the economical fragility of farming in these current times and I don't see any relief soon. I can even envision Micron,K-Mart,GM and many other large Corps. actually buying up, owning, and renting out farms in this country. And when they become landowners and call the shots you can damn well betcha that food prices will never be cheap again. And if you don't think they're cheap just look at the % of your takehome that actually buys food. It's the lowest here than any other nation. Enjoy it while you can!

-- John Thomas (cjseed@webtv.net), January 25, 2000.

John,

http://nckodokan.com/charts/crude.html -- most interesting graphics of crude refining problems.

Now, a better analogy: if you are in Arkansas, and you do anything at all remotely involved with poultry, you ask Tyson to offer you a contract. You will work (farm?) for minimum wage. At their pleasure. (Anybody in ag from Arkansas or Oklahoma care to jump in?)

Pork is headed backside-over-teacups the same direction. (Anybody from N.C. near certain huge hog operations wanna jump in?)

One point of all of the seed company consolidations in recent years, and of the GM (genetically-modified) revolution was for those companies to control the whole food supply. Worldwide. Think the FDA will protect you (consumers)? Go check out nutrasweet. I can give you hair-raising references. Think the USDA will protect you (consumers)? Last I knew, far more of their budget went towards food stamps than anything else. Directly agriculture-related, uh huh.

And since the GM foods controversey has been gathering steam, some of those same companies have been seriously looking at how they can control potable water supplies worldwide.

Now, if my fawcet starts saying "you've got water" I'm gonna conclude Steve Case has gotten too darn big for his britches!

-- Redeye in Ohio (cannot@work.com), January 25, 2000.