Analysis of Reserves worldwide - background - in laymen's terms and possible scenarios complete with graphs and pretty pictures. May help us to see what could lie ahead.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), January 22, 2000

Answers

This is a must read. It's a long essay about the finding, production, and depletion of world oil reserves. Click on the right hand side legends to get a slide.

If he is right is correct, the recent rise in oil prices makes a great deal of sense. We could be seeing the start of the plateau in oil production, with increasing pricing power shifting to the middel eastern countries, with their quaint feudal monarchies.

Prices could soar, and there isn't anything the PPT can do about it.

On a perEven if oil stills at the $30 level, it would be very deflationary for the US economy, as it assumes an abundent and cheap source of energy.

-- Sure M. Hopeful (Hopeful@future.com), January 22, 2000.

Laurane,

What a great article. Thanks.

-- J Wheel (motherof5@wellprepared.noregrets), January 22, 2000.

Yes, but we might be on the verge of creating other sources of fuel. Did I hear someone say something about extraction from plants?

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 22, 2000.

Someone please see that GORDEN gets a copy of this!

Tommy

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), January 22, 2000.

Links to more of Dr. Campbell's work:

http://dieoff.org/page131.htm

http://www.hubbertp eak.com/campbell/cen21.htm

-- Rachel Gibson (rgibson@hotmail.com), January 22, 2000.

Link to Campbell's presentation: THE IMMINENT PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION

He says--

"Looking at the world as a whole, we see this growing deficit. Discovery peaked in the 1960s with a 60 Gb surplus. But that has given way to a deficit of almost 20 Gb We now find one barrel for every four we consume.

The general situation seems so obvious. Surely everyone can see it staring them in the face. How can any thinking person not be aware of it? How can governments be oblivious of the realities of discovery and their implications? How is it possible, given the critical importance of oil to our entire economy.

Straight talk. Should be required reading in every high school.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), January 23, 2000.

Mara, Please don't fall for that idea of extraction of fuel from plants. Yes, it is possible, but is neither economically nor environmentally feasible, IMHO. I was once a Farm Bureau county president and was having a rather hostile conversation with our field rep for the region, who is a lawyer, not a farmer. He took the AgriBiz stance that fewer and bigger farmers are needed, and that the family farmer is a quaint vestigal relic, whose only hope was to find "niche" markets while the BigBoys fed the world. I asked him what he thought about sustainability, and my final question to him in that vein was, "well, what will your ever-bigger, GPS-guided tractors be good for when we run out of oil?" His answer: "we'll power 'em with corn and soybeans converted to biodiesel." It takes 8 units in to net 1 unit out in food production, in grains. (Livestock and fresh produce is higher.) Units can be calories, BTUs, etc. Think of the resources needed to perpetuate THAT diminishing return. Also please consider that, quite apart from that conversion calculation, many gallons of water (1000 to 1 for corn, for example) are needed, and we're running short of that, too. Also, consider how many more acre/feet of irreplacable topsoil will blow away to produce that extra grain and/or biomass for fuel? If such a source of biodiesel is used, then it would have to be very judiciously consumed, nowhere close to the way we use our fossil fuels today. I had hoped that at the very least, y2k would awaken more of the developed world's population to the true costs of the fuel and food we so wastefully consume, but apparently we're not to have our much-needed and belated wakeup call until it's very nearly too late. Not that I'm a total pessimist; if we lose our spoiled brat/ fat, dumb consumer attitude of "we deserve it" and let the other schmuck bust his butt producing it, we can buy it cheap, mentality, we can again as a culture, do wonders. The best of the past wedded to the best of the new technology plus a lotta sweat and a whole lot less whining. For example, teams of draft horses pulling modern machinery, working MANY small farms where free people willing to assume responsibility for their own destinies, just might re-create a Republic of tough, dignified freeholders instead of the current corrupt Empire with its endless sodden circuses? Or high-speed rail networks with electric engines partially powered by synchronous wind generators? Didn't mean to go off on a tangent, just thinking of alternatives to feeding edibles to the insatiable energy demands of our "culture".

-- Ben Corson (bcorson@dmi.net), January 23, 2000.