On the Channel 5 News (Fox in NYC) tonite they ran a story about home heating oil shortages on Long Island. It said people were being rationed (their word not mine) to 200 gallons per home. The oil guy they interviewed (from a small oil company) said the situation is worse than it was during the Gulf War. He said they couldn't even quote prices for tomorrow because they were changing so fast (even commented that prices rarely change over the weekend but this weekend they were). When asked why prices were going up and why they couldn't get oil he said "for no reason at all".

I wonder how long before someone in the media makes the Y2K connection...

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), January 22, 2000

Answers

to the top...

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), January 22, 2000.

The connection will never be admitted. That would be politically incorrect.

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), January 22, 2000.

Thanks for the report, TECH32. I admit that after reading the oil threads here this week, I still don't know why the price is going up...it seems to be cloaked in controversy.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), January 22, 2000.

The pollies have a lot to say about this. Here it is:

-- (@ .), January 22, 2000.

TECH32:

Got URL? :-)

-- Tom McDowell (bullriver@montana.com), January 22, 2000.

The reason for increased oil prices is simple. OPEC wants more money.

-- Kristine Schissler (Alikazam3@aol.com), January 22, 2000.

Lucky for me ... so far, my local oil provider sells at a set price above his purchase price on what's in the truck, regardless of the day's purchasing price. Guess there aren't many companies like that around.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 22, 2000.

Hello everyone. I'm new here and enjoy most of the postings I have read. I am a Native American and my people have always prepared for the hard hungry times. I do have some questions about what seem to be racial postings here but that is another matter. My question is how long will gas keep if it is untreated? Thankyou for your time and trouble and letting me introduce myself.

-- David Whitelaw (dande53484@aol.com), January 22, 2000.

Kristine -

True, but incomplete. These current rises seem far too sudden and too steep to have been generated simply by OPEC's recent agreements. Prices started climbing in 4Q99 and then took off like a tech IPO this month. That seems far too precipitous to have been created solely by the OPEC actions.

We went from mild winter and no oil news to full-scale crisis in about three weeks.

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 22, 2000.

Tom,

No URL. I just saw it on the 11 o'Clock News.

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), January 22, 2000.

TECH32:

Thanks, good old Fox5!

Should've asked Got url? Url that is, kerosene, the heatin kind, Long guyland Iced tee. ;)

-- Tom McDowell (BullRiver@montana.com), January 22, 2000.

Kristine,

The price of oil has most to do with the supply and demand of oil.

Now we "know" at least three things about the current supply:

-there was stockpiling of oil in the 4Q due to Y2k concerns, so supply is up -been a mild winter in the northeast until recently, demand down -no y2k problems have been reported (officially) affecting oil/distallate supply. Just the normal shutdowns, planned maintenance, etc. Gee, what am I missing?

Everyone from Bennett (at Washington DC Y2k meeting last fall) to Way (in his Raleigh Martin papers) said problems would *begin* to surface not until the third week in January.

-- Suhvivah (y2ksurvivor1@aol.com), January 22, 2000.

David Whitelaw,

Welcome to TB2000, and thanks for introducing yourself. Sorry I don't know the answer to your question about storing gasoline. There is a companion forum for preparations where you could ask your question and be certain to get an answer.

Prep forum

As for the racial postings, I haven't seen too many, but I'm sure they're here. There are all sorts here and one just learns who to ignore. Good luck!

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), January 22, 2000.

David Whitelaw:

At this point, that might be a good question. Perhaps you should post it as a 'Question'? You could start your own thread on it.

-- tim phronesia (phronesia@webtv.net), January 22, 2000.

Thankyou both for your welcome and your advice.

-- David Whitelaw (dande53484@aol.com), January 22, 2000.

You treat stored gas with a product called, "STABIL," a small 8 or 9 oz container that treats up to 20gal. It can be purchased at most auto parts outlets. There are other products that do the same thing. However I use STABIL in my stored fuel. Instructions on how to use it are on the container. It is simple to use, it is primarily for lawnmores and equipment that has fuel tanks to be stored over the winter months.

-- Notforlong (Fsur@aol.com), January 22, 2000.

I`M NOT A WIZARD in oil or in anything for that matter but there is one possiblity about this sudden `crisis` that keeps burning in my gut!...the idea that this `shortage` that has come up so fast could be due to a gov. buildup [and not just ours] for the military in prep for a MAJOR war!!!!!!!! we certainly have reason to consider this just by what the popular media has allowed us to know! and i am a believer that it`s what you DON`T know that turns out to be the scariest!!! this has been hauting me for last couple of weeks ....sure would appreciate anyones thoughts on this !!

-- mutter (murmur@ya.com), January 22, 2000.

David, I'd like to add my welcome, also! TB2000 is the internet equivalent of the "Wild,wild west." You are a welcome addition to the host of characters hanging out here.

-- nothing (better@to.do), January 22, 2000.

Hi,

I'm on the inside of the refining and marketing industry. I can tell you several things:

1. There have been a few problems directly related to Y2K. I suspect that some of them have already caused damage to refineries that is taking some time to repair. This tightens supply.

2. Not all refinerys stockpiled, in fact as I'd suspected right before the rollover, many did not make ANY efforts to have extra product on hand. This left them vulnerable to any demand spikes. The evidence for this was clearly represented by the fact that freight rates for vessels DID NOT spike the way I had thought they would.

3. The guy from OPIS who said, "what you're seeing here is the dark side of JIT inventories" said it best. He was dead on. What you have here is a failure of JIT combined with severe weather during a tight period.

All this being said, I DO think there are Y2K problems cropping up. For instance Sun is now down in Philadelphia. Whether it's Y2K or not we may never know, however we DO know their down and down for a while according to them. We also know that Motiva's Delaware City refinery has been down for a while and that Amoco's Yorktown VI is also having problems. All of this adds up to a very tight market. Now add in some renewed external crude supply pressures from OPEC and VOILA! A perfectly baked JIT/Y2K supply crunch.

If there's anything I've learned, it's that all things are connected. For example, the cold weather creates problems with Nat Gas deliveries. When it's really cold electricity demand goes up. If the utilities can't get Nat Gas to make electricity, they turn to refineries for distillates and fuel oil thereby tightening demand.

It will be really, really interesting to see if Motiva gets back up this weekend. If they don't they've got REAL problems. The crack (a measure of refining profitability) in the Harbor is astronomical right now by EC standards. Those guys must be giving it 150% to get going. If they don't it's a bad sign for EC residents.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 22, 2000.

In memory of the King: David, do you like to mudwrestle?

-- Liz (lizpavek@hotmail.com), January 22, 2000.

Well Liz I personally have never tried it. I think though that if the oil shortage is a reality we will all be in the mud. May serenity circle on silent wings and catch the whisper of the wind.

-- David Whitelaw (dande53484@aol.com), January 22, 2000.