Hi all!

I don't get on here as often as I'd like, but I'm still lurking and learning. Here (so far) is what I've found:

JANUARY 21, 2000 Day 21

It is now 3 weeks from rollover andalthough myriad system disruptions and failures have occurredfew serious incidents or failures have been reported. The following is my pre-rollover list of expected Y2K impacts and effects throughout the year 2000:

[snip] This is what I believe will happen:

A. A small initial impact, compounding to widespread infrastructure failures by summer of 2000. B. An increase in terrorist actions against critical infrastructures. C. Worldwide economic devastation (depression). D. Social distress and the institution of marshal law in various locations. E. Nationalization of critical resources and industries. F. Rationing of food, gasoline and other essentials. G. Rampant malnutrition, disease and death (by water and sewage failures). H. The conflagration of local conflicts into at least one regional total war. I. The world in chaos by autumn of 2000.

I will not guess at events beyond late 2000 [end snip]

There has indeed been a small initial impact, but no sure signs of compounding system disruptions or failures have been reported yetbut Y2Ks ongling impacts and effectssmall cuts that SO FAR have been compensated for by strengths within our global super-systemmay yet give us all grief

1. OIL wells, drills, refineries around the world are experiencing disruptions and shutdowns reported to be from a variety of sources.

2. MARKETS stock markets have crashed (Pakistans) or been volatile reportedly due to a variety of reasons.

3. HEAVY INDUSTRY a wide assortment of toxic spills, leaks, failures, accidents [with some loss of life] and explosions have been reported during the past 3 weeks.

4. TRANSPORT many power, radar, air traffic control, and airplane failure have occurred in the past 3 weeks, along with railroad slowdowns and disruptons and trucking snafus.

Through all this, the omnipresent mantra of the mainstream newsmedia reporting these events is that..

THIS IS NOT Y2K RELATED

Do you remember one CNN newsbroadcastwhen reporting loss of power, radar and control over most of the US Eastern Seaboard an on-camera interview with a senior air official on the camera the official stated that they didnt know the cause of the system failuresCNN put a small tickertape running along the bottom of the TV screen saying that this event was not Y2K related!

Thats hype, not objective news reporting!

Should we be content with our preparation efforts and continue to be aware and prudent in our lives?

WHAT OTHER THREATS EXIST?

1. ENVIRONMENTAL (asteroid or comet impacts, solar flares[CMEs], storms, global warming, loss of atmospheric ozone, earthquakes, tsunamis, droughts, floods, winter storms)

2. MONETARY (inflation, deflation, stock market corrections or crashes, recessions/depressions, increasing debts, increasing taxes)

3. POLITICAL (conflicts and wars, coups, govt dictatorships, loss of privacy and freedom)

4. HUMAN (accidents, increasing crime, loss of work, injury)

Apparently unrelated to Y2K, the Chechen conflict now stands at a crossroads. Putin may back down and negotiate peace processtabilizing southwestern Asia. Putin may also choose to force the Chechen defenders handprovoking full confrontation in the hopes of a quick and decisive victory (in the war and in the upcoming elections)and risk an escalating regional war

I THINK Putin will recognize that communism is not yet fully ready for a full confrontation with the West, and will publicly denounce all Western influence in the Caucases and Caspian regions while negotiating a face-saving retreat from a bloody stalemate in Chechnya. A skillful compromise necessary to keep anti-western sentiment active in Russia while simultaneously keeping Western financial/technical aid flowing into Russia. Why?

1. Russias military is not yet fully equipped or manned for total war with the Western Powers. 2. Russias economy still needs Western financial support in the near term.

3. Russias population has neither been conditioned to hate the West to the degree where they would support a total warand the consequent massive casualtiesnor been trained and equipped to survive a total war.

4. Russia does not yet control or influence all the strategic points necessary to checkmate the West.

5. Russia has not fully cowed, put to sleep, or bought off all Western leaders necessary to prevent a total war.

6. Russias allies are not yet ready to fully support Russias goals.

The more I consider recent and current events (and trends) the more I think that the inevitable war with Communism is not imminent. There is timemaybe months or yearsto prepare.

But war is most assuredly coming.

These are my thoughts for the initial impact of Y2K. Many of you are good friends who helped me and my little family pre-rollover, when the future was a black unknown and I thank you from the bottom of my heart!

We are all well up at 54North 123West!

All constructive thoughts are welcome.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 21, 2000

Answers

And I was worried that you would put out a gloomy report...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), January 21, 2000.

Kurt, do you hang with Infomagic?

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), January 21, 2000.

Geez, I thought I had a doomy outlook!

Thanks Kurt...good to see you posting here.

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), January 21, 2000.

Speaking of `let's keep a lid on it,' my friend was watching one of those casual-anchor-banter shows and one of the anchors said their computer system was down. The other anchor told her, "We're not supposed to say that..."

Why not? we might ask...

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 21, 2000.

Don't want to, but have to agree with Kurt. I posted this before the roll-over.....still stand behind it, fuel/oil and financial markets hold the key. Still seeing a lot of embedded failures that will not make the press. If you work for a BIG company you know what I'm talking about. Most are leaving the Y2K scene because the big flash didn't happen.............sorry people, it is not over...not by a long shot. The embedded issue always was a time bomb....the clocks just aren't on the same channel we are. Stay tuned and stay prepped!

12-14-1999 Week 1 Dec 31st-Jan 8th primary embedded failures (some water/sewer, chemical plants, manufacturing) - Unknown level of impact...could be a 1 (unlikely but possible) or a 7-10 (unlikely but possible) figure a general 2-3 in most areas but a 10 in others.

Week 2-14 The unraveling of the economy-JIT failures, processing, accounting glitches. Fuel goes through the roof... rationing is probable. Stock market contracts, puffs then implodes for 2 qtrs. minimum. Longer if fail scenarios in production facilities remain troubled. This will be a 5-9 on the scale. Oil and chemical plants hold the key here. 40% of small businesses have done nothing for y2k. 10% of these will fail outright within 6-12 weeks. 7-26 million will be added to the unemployment rolls by June 2000. Govt. steps in but can't stem the tide. National emergency declared in most states by mid Feb.

Week 15-52 Slow then moderate recovery mixed with new fail scenarios keep anxiety very high. Level drops some to 4-7. Market starts back on recovery but will take yrs to recover fully.

PS in two-three weeks I'll give my Kosky report and in spite of the above happening will give my happy faced all is well report.

As I posted in an earlier thread.

-- Polly-Morphic Doomer (greenem31@aol.com), January 21, 2000.

Kurt:

What you indicate above *may*, on an outside chance, be *possible*, but I don't see how in the time frame you supplied.

*If* anything like what you propose is possible, it would take years to unfold.

Here's why I say that:

Look at the elasticity and durability of the social fabric to endure massive shock in:

#1)WWII Germany. WWIISerbia. WWIILondon. And World War II Japan. I'm sure there are even better examples from that period.

#2) Serbia during our bombing campaign against it (I'd also assume we were doing our best to destabilize the regime as well. Even Iraq during the gulf war (and aftermath) maintained most essential functions and most social cohesion (in as much as Iraq ever has social cohesion).

#3) Sarajevo was besiged and shelled and sniped at for how long? Remember? The Serbs held all the hills that ringed the town! Day and night they lobbed shells down into it. But power was up 40% of the time! The only reason the water was down as much as it was, was because the corrupt city authorities were making a financial killing by making everyone buy water from a central source (or so the news reports out of Sarajevo said at the time).

Actually, I could go on endlessly, ranging through the historic field of examples (e.g. Hannibal in Italy). I think the point is this: Almost no amount of strain to the social fabric can bring anarchy to a society, as long as people still are bound by there faith and belief in one another. Rome fell when no Romans cared for it to endure anymore. Hannibal and the Celts were far more deadly than the few unallied Germanic Bands that later gave it some trouble (In fact, at that time, most state (security?) functions had already been given over to the Germans (apparently the Italians/Romans could no longer trust each other enough to work together). Really, Rome fell when the Germans were *given* control.

-- tim phronesia (phronesia@webtv.net), January 21, 2000.

Chechnya has the oil for an extended military manuever, and anything else the Soviet Union lacks militarily is either "covered" by their Chinese ALLIES or handed over by the sucker United States Inc.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 21, 2000.

Mad Monk: Hiya sir! Tammy and I watched a video about your island and we fell in love with it...gonna go there for the honeymoon.

Lars: I don't hang with Infomagic. I read him and considered what he had to say, especially since he knew a whole lot more about computers and systems than I did (and do...) I'm glad he is wrong so far. I have my own thoughts and they don't align with him.

All:

Here's some news worth considering:

1. Vladimir Putin will hold a CIS Moscow Summit 24-25 Jan/00. He is expected to "put his foot down" to redefine state membership in the CIS. Will he use this to define friends/enemies? How will the US and Western Powers handle this power-grab/attempt to recreate the Soviet Union?

2. I've been asking myself why Iran is so strategically important to Moscow--until today. Iran's talks with Azerbaijan (trans-caucases oil pipeline) have failed, leaving Azerbaijan crawling back to Moscow for support in exporting oil. Iran is also a direct link from Moscow- controlled (or heavily influenced) territory and the Caspian oilfields to the ice-free ports of the Gulf region.

3. NewsMax.com reports (Christopher Ruddy) that Hutchison Whampoa, the same Chinese front company for the Chinese Red Army, that has so recently taken control of both ends of the Panama Canal (don't tell me that's not a threat) is also just about done constructing a container port in Freeport, Bahamas (60 miles from Florida). Bracket the CONUS, no?

4. Ecuador has just fallen under a military coup. This is the same nation that so recently moved to US dollars (big trouble down there). This is also the second South American nation to have a coup in the last 6 months.

5. China is holding peaceable diplomatic talks with South Korea and Japan--under the auspices of helping stabilize the region. I don't have much info. here so I'll keep watching to figure out the big queston WHY?

6. OIL is having alot of difficulties lately, no? The price of home heating fuel is climbing beyond reason...

Put it all together and you don't have cause to panic--or even worry-- but you have all the cause in the world to be awake and aware of what's going on around you.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 21, 2000.

Tim:

Those were my expectations PRE-ROLLOVER.

Hokie:

Call me crazy but I ignore the talking heads and watch what's going on and I THINK (didn't say KNOW) that there really is an oil shortage occurring. The Caspian oilfields have been explored by US interests and found very worth the expenditure of massive amounts of $$$.

If I was Russian and wanted to rebuild the old Soviet Union (Putin does) then I need an excuse to take over old territory. I also need OIL, lots of it. I also need to shame or embarass the US and Western Powers to buy me time to push my weight around in my historic backyard.

Enter the Chechen war. Only this one COULD get out of Putin's control if he isn't wise.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 21, 2000.

Could China be destabilizing those Central American countries? Wouldn't it be in their best interests (China's) to topple as many governments in that area as possible in order to strengthen their position in that region?

-- Liz (lizpavek@hotmail.com), January 21, 2000.

Liz: Good question. In all likelyhood, China would be prudent to pursue its 'interests' in that region, in any case. So I assume that they have been and will be in as much as we let them.

My big question is: Why are we letting them?

Kurt: Sorry for sounding dismissive, if I did. Your points immediately above are valid and the projections with which you started this thread *could* possibly come to pass, so I take them, and you, seriously.

My point was really that I believe you see the weaknesses, but not necessarily all the strengths that society, and the American state, possess at this time. I can see that you are aware of geo-political weaknesses that exist. Can you list our strengths as well?

I'm not suggesting that your perspective on this is simply wrong. It's difficult to see the **entire** picture (who does?). So more, I'm suggesting that there are other perspectives from which to view these events, that in sum may give a more global or total perspective.

I personally find that the hardest parts of any 'prognostication' is the time table -- that's why I'm calling your attention to the issue. Do you disagree?

-- tim phronesia (phronesia@webtv.net), January 21, 2000.

Tim:

Printing off thread to take with me. I have to meet Tammy (my sweetheart!) for dinner (her lunch break at work). I'll think over what you said and get back to you in a couple of hours.

If you're gone, check the thread tomorrow.

Thanks again.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 21, 2000.

Tim:

Here's my considered response.

I cannot see everything--that is why I ask for constructive criticism and why I am thankful for it when it is given. Thank you too.

The intent of my post was to inform, provoke thought and encourage interaction--in the hopes that we may all walk away a bit wiser. Hence I do not emphasize weakness or strength. Though it often is, balance is not always wise; to show BOTH sides means there are only two sides noticed.

There are myriad ways of interpreting data. There is usually only one correct (or wise) way. No, I'm not being elitist, I have a background in this.

Our strengths? Cultural, spiritual, monetary, infrastructure, military, geographic--which strengths? They all work together. I am a Christian and I firmly believe that the good Lord has blessed the US and Western Powers because they, at one point or another, based their social foundations on God's laws.

Our greatest strengths have always been our God-centred societies, the nuclear family, and practical outlook on life.When we part from wisdom, even in the name of science, we walk away from our safety.

It is not so much God who punishes, it is God who allows us our freedom of choice--and the natural consequences of our choices.

If you refer to systemic strengths, last autumn I wrote an essay, based upon what I have learned, on systems theory and expected Y2K impacts and effects. If you want it I will send it to your email at your request.

What is your perspective Tim?

If I endeavored to show "the whole picture" (impossible) I'd spend too much time on wasted bandwidth, bore the lot of you with my pontification, and lose track of my intended purpose:

A WARNING TO STAY AWAKE.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 22, 2000.

Thank you Kurt: Please send that essay. I'll try to post a reply regarding my perspective (in as much as I'm able to formulate one) tomorrow.

I do agree that some perspectives are better, that is more complete, than others. I think we both share a love of learning and a deep faith. Somehow, I think, both these things are deeply interwoven with pursuit of the most complete perspectives.

-- tim phronesia (phronesia@webtv.net), January 22, 2000.

Coming at you Tim...

"fragile means toss underhand!"

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 22, 2000.

Kurt,

May I have a copy of your essay? Thank you for your thoughtful analysis and time posting here.

-- Mr. Pinochle (pinochledd@aol.com), January 22, 2000.

Tim P. .... I would say you have give a " poor " analogy if you compare todays Americans with those in the balkens ( used to war , shortages . etc. ) , Romans ( really tough in their day ) and the English, with their backs to the wall in 1941 . I lived those years , met people displaced by that war and KNEW the Americans who fought the war , both on the battlefield and the homefront ! The liberalized/spoiled/winning/where's my gov./state/welfare check crowd had trouble with all subsequent wars AND , a MINOR (4-5%) gas shortage in the 70's . Your dreaming if you think the present rotted core of what was a great country has any reliable backbone left. TRY rousing Joe six=pack from his place in front of the T.V.; be it sports or the six o'clock media report of "nothing important today ' news , unless , of course , it's already fact and miust be " reported/spun " by TPTB.

No, I'm afraid the next real crisis that can not be walked away from will bring down this house of cards we refer to as world governments/financial groups , and people here will be only looking inward to how can I duck the responsibility /

take care of me and mine !!! Hope I'm wrong , but at nearly 72 , I know wereof I speak . Eagle

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@freewwweb.com), January 22, 2000.

Hal:

Your point is that we here in America have lost 'virtue' with the passing of time.

Many have, I agree.

I think that our governing class may not be of the same vigour as in past times, but if you look at America's 'popular' level, things are different.

The bulk of Americans:

#1) Work longer and harder than any other people on earth, and more then they ever have in the past (on average).

#2) Are more educated than they ever have been.

#3) Are more religious than they ever have been.

These things are not generally true of the fewer, but surprisingly, they are true of 'average Americans'.

I don't know what segment or region of society you come from. Perhaps where you live, and the circles that you move in, are festering and without hope.

But America is a huge place. And there is much 'happening' that I'll share with you if your interested.

We may, with time, be approaching a decline of some things. But a new sun already rises.

Don't write America off yet.

For many, She is just coming of age!

-- tim phronesia (phronesia@webtv.net), January 22, 2000.