Y2K People Finding People - http://www.webpal.org/list.htm

The OIL news is seriously worsening as of this morning. Take a look at:

http://www.nckodokan.com/charts/crude.html

The above link does NOT include the serious AV fuel problem going on in Australia.

It does not tell us ANYTHING about what is happening in Russia. (Nothing tells us what is happening in Russia - There are confirmed reports of serious problems in other areas in Russia but NO reports on refineries or pipelines there. I do not consider no news as being good news.)

Candace Carman (and others - thank you Nancy and Emily) have sent me the following -

=============================== Excerpted from OPIS Alert

2000-01-20 18:00:56 EST ***FUEL PRICE SPIKE ACCELERATES; PRICES NOW 200% ABOVE LAST JANUARY

[Do you think 200% is serious? Which way do you think it is headed? -Bruce]

1/20 - (5:30 P.M.) - - "Fuel prices are following the script of internet stocks today, soaring by increments not seen since the Persian Gulf War or the supply crunch of December 1989. The increases are dizzying in their scope, with many products now more than 200% above where they stood a year ago."

[This is yesterday evening, long after I wrote you yesterday morning. It is happening quickly, or I should say at least quicker. - Bruce]

"Diesel fuel is along for the ride [prices rising], with many suppliers dyeing diesel inventory so they can move the bbls into the heating oil pool. There is very strong demand coming from utilities who need the extra oil because of natural gas curtailments,

[Natural gas CURTAILMENTS. WHAT NATURAL GAS CURTAILMENTS! I am screaming! No one told ME about natural gas curtailments. All I am hearing about is the Cuban boy. Could it be that just like 18 months ago the pipeline companies were suppressing the news about one fourth of the valves having to be replaced and that they were spending millions and millions of dollars in doing so, that they are now suppressing information about problems. A sarcastic, "Nahhh, that couldn't be happening in our society. - Bruce]

or because of anticipated electricity demand surges that could take place when brutal weather reaches the northeast this evening.

[Oh, oh....- Bruce]

Diesel prices are also approaching $1.10 gal in New York Harbor and suppliers throughout the region are raising wholesale rack costs by 5-20cts gal at terminals all along the East Coast. The trucking firm which paid well under $1.00 gal at retail last year, is now facing costs that are as much as 50-75cts gal above January 1999 rates.

Most of the fuel demand surge is in the northeast where a cold front is scheduled to put the region in a deep freeze through the weekend. Latest extended weather forecasts put colder than normal temperatures in the region through February 1 and that has some suppliers worried.

[What! Me worry? - Alfred C. Neuman]

"This is the 'dark side' of 'just in time' inventory" noted one northeastern supplier. "There really isn't a lot that refiners and shippers can do to get product where it's needed in the next ten days." The supplier predicts that heating oil retailers may even see allocations within the next few days.

[Now hold on a minute. What about all those stockpiles and inventory for Y2K, that we were told about. Problems haven't been so serious that we have already gone through them, have we? The real problem with JIT was that there is no place to really store inventory anymore. - Bruce]

The strength has at least partially lifted prices through the rest of the country. Gulf Coast diesel values have moved into the low 80's, and marketers across a wide swath of the country saw increases of 5cts gal or more this afternoon.

Friday's market is predicted to be a wild one in the cash market, since it will inevitably find East Coast suppliers scrambling to find much needed inventory to handle weekend demand. The rise in crude oil has been enough to inspire some calls for SPR sales, which could ultimately pressure March WTI futures in the next few days. But the Strategic Petroleum Reserve doesn't hold bbls of heating oil, diesel, jet fuel, or kerosene, so a call to action by the government may not pressure those physical prices lower.

[The SPR is crude, and hard to get at crude, and often in the wrong place crude. Checked that one out many months ago. -Bruce]

Here's a look at how some key products have performed over the last ten days, and how wholesale spot prices compare to last year.

THE 21ST CENTURY PRICE SPIKE Product Jan. 10 Current price estimate Last year ------ ------- ---------------------- --------- NY Spot No. 2 66.00 $1.07 gal 32.0cts gal NY Spot diesel 69.50 $1.08 gal 32.5cts gal NY Jet Fuel 82.75 $1.18 gal 35.0cts gal NY Kerosene 85.00 $1.29 gal 37.0cts gal NY Unl Gas 67.00 77cts gal 34.0cts gal ===================================================

[Go through those last two columns, Houston, and if this is going to be a continuing trend, tell me if you think that we have a problem. It is getting interesting. If you think crises are interesting. - Bruce]

====================

And now to repeat the story that I told you last November. About the two fellows in a culture who prided them selves on having the sharpest razor knives.

They met in a dark alley one night and the one took a swipe at the other.

"Hah! Missed me", said the one. "Yeah, well just shake your head", said the other.

Folks, I told you then, THAT might be a parable about Y2K. Still "interesting" stuff coming down the pike. January "32nd" February "29th" More refinery and pipeline problems? Cold weather. European energy problems. Iraq oil problems [Forgot to mention the latter up above. They are having SERIOUS oil production problems. Really questionable that they got their Y2K repairs done.] AND we don't hear from RUSSIA.

Friends, I told you months ago, the one single barometer that you want to watch about Y2K is Oil Price. Still true. The lights stayed on in the rest of the world - Amazingly! But we said Y2K was only a possibility in that regard, and that I wasn't that strong a believer. I said I expected outages in some neighborhoods of 17 North American cities and civil disturbances as a result but that it would all be resolved. Came out even better than my expectations. There are now several thousand Y2K problems that have been reported, and lots of time and energy is going into fixing them and keeping them quiet, but so far they have not been so serious as to disrupt society. They do still continue however, and their results COULD begin to accumulate. But the real killer remains OIL. How this may effect the world economy, cause geo-political problems, lead to social disruptions, and to an eventual MAJOR problem, is still undetermined. But that remains the thesis, and OIL Prices remain the thing to watch.

================ Oops! This just in-------->

"About 59 of Ukraine's 110 thermal power plant blocks are continuing to generate electricity, while the rest are stopped due to a lack of fuel, the ministry said. Three of Ukraine's 14 nuclear reactors also are not working; two of them have no fuel left. "

The confirming link did not work for me but I will give it to you anyway.----->

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Gas%20News&touch=1&T=energy_news

Peace and love, Bruce Beach survival@webpal.org

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-- Phil Erup (spam@free.zone), January 21, 2000

Answers

The OIL news is seriously worsening as of this morning. Take a look at: <<

Yawn.... Really, you must learn to control your passion as it will be your undoing... Yeah, right, the oil situation is just sooooo bad, that the news is filled with stories of long lines at gas stations, people freezing to death in cold homes in Quebec, get a gripe you pathetic doomer, or we'll be sending in the UN Special balck helicopters after you!!!

-- ur a jerk (U_r@an.idiot.com), January 21, 2000.

Great post. Keep the facts coming. New Y2K saying: the degree of insult is in direct proportion to the facts being presented.

-- Patrick Lastella (Lastella1@aol.com), January 21, 2000.

Agree with you again Patrick.

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 21, 2000.

Hey this isn't funny. I live in Maine. It's 8:02 p.m. and the temp is -14. the wind is blowing about 40 miles an hour out there and I got the toyostove going plus the kerosun heater going. We live in the mountains folks and this kero shortage is definately NOT FUNNY !!! Both my sources of heat are kero ! We got about a month of fuel left in the tank outside. Please tell me it will get better soon? Jules

-- jules (jules@fridgid.net), January 21, 2000.

apparently all of you forget that we had no oil left in 1973 or so with the arab oil embargo........oh boy.......what was the price then compared to now.......considerng inflation......get a life....... there is plenty of oil.....just opec manipuation......

-- jim sullivan (seamus83@yahoo.com), January 21, 2000.