If you're new here, don't get all distracted by the "Stone the Doomers" threads. This is a noisy place, but useful.

We are hitting the iceberg now. It will be mid-March before we know how much we're hurt, and June or so before we know how long the repairs will take. All we know so far is that the lights mostly stayed on. This is (in technical terms) known as a "good thing", and GI's are pleased about it, not disappointed.

We have rumors of oil problems. We have not yet seen the first EOM processes in the year 2000, and many could stumble badly at that point. I have not yet heard of federal checks coming out - SS, Medicare, Vets, stuff like that. If the gummint can't cut checks, we are in big trouble.

It's hard to keep your perspective when stuck in a large and slow mechanism. We're trying to deal with a problem with a tree-farm timeline, in a culture that thinks "instant" is too slow. Watch the news, collect the data, don't be in a big hurry to give away your canned goods.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 21, 2000

Answers

Well said bw,

Problems surfacing now too in banking, VISA double-billing etc.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

Good advice for ALL bw!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 21, 2000.

Bw, you post something sensible and draw out three certified wankers.

This one is the best...

"Your "wait, it will be bad, trust me" litany is tireing, tiresome and pathetic.

-- Tired (tired@ofthedoom.machine), January 21, 2000."

then what the hell are you 3 numnutz doing here?????

Go get a life aready. Y2k is a done deal, right???????

Pathetic is right. This forum is still here to minitor y2k - it ain't over yet.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

Hey Tired - yeah, Y2k is tough to understand. I worked in Y2k projects from 1994 on, and it was 1997 before I even HEARD about the rollover being the problem. I thought it was a bad joke, to suggest that the lights would go out. Our real fears were always the EOD, EOM processes in 2000, and the various date-calculations in batch and OLTP systems.

But the media looked only at the rollover, for the most part, and most people could grasp the "lights-out" danger where they simply couldn't see why a program that prints their SS checks would care if 99 > 00. Your confusion came from that, and now you're impatient because all you ever thought about was the rollover.

Y2k is much bigger and much slower than you were told. Sorry.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 21, 2000.

bw, having started trying to get one of my employers started with I.T. remediation projects well over 2 years back (note I didn't say 'successfully'), I could not agree more. All kidding aside, I found your innital comment very, very cogent and apt. Thank you for putting it so well!

Media? Per se, the attention span of a gnat to start with. Not to mention horrified of not being 'PC'. Not to mention that if AP didn't report it, it ain't credible. And AP will not touch a story if its editors don't politically like it -- or if D.C. says don't.

For me, it isn't just I.T.-related 'traditional' y2k concerns such as the EOM processes you note, it's the confluence of those, embeddeds isues vis-a-vis process control, solar max, and so on. Oh, and let's include the possibility of 'international mischief' during a 'window of opportunity', to spice it up some more. Is it my imagination, or have I been seeing more major media stories recently about how gov't thinks it can control mass hysteria?

BTW, just flat loved your 'tree-farm timeline' observation -- gotta remember that one for future use, since I know what a tree farm is!

-- Redeye in Ohio (cannot@work.com), January 21, 2000.

The most fascinating thing about this forum is the number of persons who keep "tuning in" to post "nya nya" or similar nonsense. If you people don't think there may be some future Y2K problems, WHY on earth do you spend your time here? Dont you have ANYTHING else to do? (that was a hypo, the answer is obvious) I personally am still monitoring this and other forums/lists on Y2K because I want to keep abreast of ANY future problems so I can continue to plan accordingly. I would sugest (though I know you'll pay no hhed) that those of you who are instead haunting this forum for some childish need to thumb your runny noses... Get a life.

-- Still Alert (stillalert@watching.com), January 21, 2000.

bw: what is an EOM process, and when will we start seeing them? What problems are you seeing now?

-- soapie (soapie@suds.com), January 21, 2000.

"If you are new here" says it all. That is why pollies are needed on this board, to throw logic on some really silly posts.

For example: the iceberg theory. I recall that last year, when everyone began to change to fiscal 2000, that THAT was the "tip of the iceberg". Then, when nothing happened, rollover was supposed to be the "big bang," so to speak. Now, its March 2000? What next...rollover to 2001?

Yes, there have been problems. Yes, there will be problems. But they are or have been solved.

-- Freethinkr (ima@nut.com), January 21, 2000.

Yes, there have been problems. Yes, there will be problems. But they are or have been solved.

-- Freethinkr (ima@nut.com), January 21, 2000.

Then why dont you and all your challenged friends F$$K off and get a life.

Y2k's a done deal right???

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

Gosh Anklebiters are a funny breed. How much longer will we have to wait before you get a life? You folks derive so much "meaning" in spending your time where you don't belong, where you claim you can't stand to be, and where you aren't welcome, that you lost your credibility. Your "nyah, nyah, nyah" litany is tireing, tiresome and pathetic.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), January 21, 2000.

End Of Month

Also performance ratios could be a problem. Jan 99 -vs- Jan 00
1st Quarter -vs- Previous Quarter

Anything that compares across a month/year boundry

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 21, 2000.

EOD, EOM, EOY - End of Day, Month, Year.

Depending on their fiscal periods, a company MIGHT have run its January EOM by now, but generally these will run between January 29th and maybe February 4. These have nothing to do with embeddeds, and virtually none have yet run in 2000. If a company can't run these, it might not be able to send 401k or other benefit payments, might not be able to run cash-flow reports, might not be able to do inventorying, etc.

I'm not seeing ANY problems. I'm lucky to work for a GI employer who invested a lot of money and effort in y2k remediation, and we are in good shape. I'm moving off the y2k group and into real work (praise be) and am delighted so far.

Here's one timeline: January EOM fails, DP manager gets excited, tries rerunning, jumps all over the system manager. After a week they look deep enough into the code to know that they don't have the source code, or they're looking at a database-reconstruction (2-3 month job). So at the end of two weeks the word gets to the CFO or CEO, and then they all spend another week persuading him/her that the ship is sinking. The CEO (like "tired" above) thought y2k was fixed on 1/1/2000, refuses to believe, lots of sweating, lots of orders given in a firm, clear voice. So around the end of February you have shipments totally missed, payments not made, cash flow stops, and the first bankruptcy filings. By mid-March these won't be concealable any more, if they are happening.

Really odd how the pollies think we WANT this to happen. Like the doctor says "Well, here's the crisis, if he lives to morning he'll recover", and the patient's family says "Oh, that means you WANT him to die!"? Go figure.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 21, 2000.

more...
End of Millennium (the Real one)
End of Decade


-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 21, 2000.

Freethinkr - you've got a couple metaphors confused. The iceberg thing is a metaphor or analogy, not a theory. They really are out there.

The "tip of the iceberg" analogy was talking about how many problems might surface - it's a way of saying that we see just a little. Some things broke at fiscal rollover, not too many, and we suspect there were more that were unreported.

The "hitting the iceberg" analogy is not about how much we see, it's about the timeline of the events. It refers to the Titanic (a common source of Y2k metaphors), and the speed of collision.

This thread is not about HOW MUCH was reported in July of 1999, it's about WHEN things might break in 2000.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 21, 2000.

I've seen at least a dozen forums on different topics that I thought were irrelevant, weird or just plain wrong -- and I've found it ridiculously easy to leave them to their folly.

Seems to me the folks who keep insisting that nothing serious is gonna happen are just responding to their own fears that something actually might happen. At least 5.5 billion people in this world are NOT posting to this forum and never will. These are the folks who honestly don't expect the world to change in any substantial way, and for all I know they may be right!

But these people who jump in here -- over and over, in many cases -- shouting how foolish and/or evil this conversation is -- you have to think, these guys are worried and don't even know it.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), January 21, 2000.

DoomerSpotter - "bw" doesn't stand for Bum Wad. I've been called lots worse, so don't fret, I'm not offended.

Grovel? Sure, when the situation calls for it. In one famous instance I literally kissed the foot of someone who I'd caused a problem for. I always apologize when appropriate, no problem.

So, tell me how I hurt *you*. Show me where the damage was from my prediction. You might bear in mind that I started saying it two years ago, and sent it to a wide range of people, to get the necessary awareness going. But you can just call it doomerism, if you like. Even so, you have to tell me what the harm was.

"anyone who I hurt is welcome to tell me so, and tell me how they were hurt, and I'll grovel accordingly" is what I said. Now put up or shut up. Tell me how I hurt you. No hypotheticals about weak-minded followers who you can imagine might have been worried by thinking I was the One True Voice. No lumping me in with somebody who's been hoping and praying for the end of the world. Tell me how *I* hurt *you*.

If you can't do that, I owe you nothing, zip, zilch, gar nichts.

Oh, by the way, I officially retracted the 50,000 in an earlier thread. Don't want you to miss it.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 21, 2000.

As I recall, the Titanic sank pretty fast -- perhaps you need to use a different analogy.

And the import of your analogy is that it is all those bugs we can't see that are going to sink us. I'm trying to say that this simply is not the case -- according to the "experts", we began hitting this iceberg last year. The problem for doomers is that the reality of the situation is that the tip of the iceberg is all that exists.

Regarding rumors...as I recall, this forum was filled with rumors of TEOTWAWKI prior to rollover -- None of which materialized. I can only judge current rumors based upon the veracity of past rumors. Even the most stallwart doomer must admit that the government did not impose martial law, that the grid did not fail, that there has not been a money run, and that the shelves of the stores are filled.

-- Freethinkr (ima@nut.com), January 21, 2000.

We don't know whether we'll sink or not - we are (didn't you get this?) still hitting the iceberg. Don't know how big the hole will be, don't know how much water gets in. Hope we stay afloat, because I have plans for the future and don't want to spend the next decade living a Mad Max scenario. We are not the Titanic, it's just a source of analogies, to help people understand the problem. Or not, apparently.

What you called rumors, we called predictions. Yup, made some mistakes, mostly relating to the power staying on or not. If power had failed, it would have been really messy. We couldn't be sure, because the power folks weren't talking (aside from happy face stuff) and weren't testing (just doing comm drills). So we recommended prepping for real problems.

We bet the whole civilization on the honesty of people who had a vested interest in concealing any problems. And we won. Whew.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Did you miss that?

Now we have the next set of hurdles to get past - EOM, etc. How they go has nothing to do with embeddeds, so the lights staying on doesn't mean EOM's will go fine. If they go well, we'll know it by mid-March, and I'll let out a big sigh of relief. My *sigh* will put Diane to shame.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 21, 2000.

I am not at all saying that we were warned uselessly. My preps are in place and will remain so, I even add to them. Because I know within, somewhere down the road they will be needed. In the news yesterday, three young people died a horrible death in a fire. The fire alarm had been sounded several times by pranksters, and when a real fire came people are dead because they did not heed the alarm. I would assume that because those that got out said they were reluctant to leave because they were not sure it was real until they could smell the smoke. The fire alarms were more or less ignored because they could not be trusted to be real. I feel that an alarm has been sounded, and I take it very serious. If it proves to be fake, so be it, I will be prepared, Where in hell will you be?

-- Notforlong (Fsur@aol.com), January 21, 2000.

Industry has a vested interest in correcting any and all problems -- its called profits.

No matter how big or small the hole really is, to someone who wants it to be big it is going to be perceived as big (half full or half empty?)

I have not said that we aren't hitting the iceberg...I've said that the berg is realitively small and the damage is managable

-- Freethinkr (ima@nut.com), January 21, 2000.

Wow, how many companies have gone bankrupt, do you suppose, even though they had the irresistable draw of profits that should have shown them the right way? How many companies did nothing at all to prepare for y2k, thinking that short-range profits were more important than long-term life? Maxwell's empire (rumor has it) crumbled because they didn't even program for a decade change, much less a century. How could they make such a mistake, if it was going to hurt profits?

Companies don't run to get profit, they run to implement the goals of the owners and/or managers. Sometimes managers are really stupid. Then companies die.

"the berg is realitively small and the damage is managable". Well, that's your estimate, and I hope you're right. We'll know in a couple months.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 21, 2000.

"the Titanic sank pretty fast..."

Scale the analogy to fit the circumstance. Call the beginning of the cruise across the Atlantic, oh, the glittering bubble that was the 1990s. (Glittering for some people, anyhow.)

After the Titanic scraped with a groan along the 'berg, passengers picked bits of ice off the deck, played with them, supposedly used them in their drinks.

We are still scraping along the 'berg right now. Can't even begin to say if the hull is flooding, or just getting the bilges a trifle moist. Will the rivets pop (because they are fundamentally unsound, brittle impure metal, the key to the sinking)? Will the watertight doors do their job (what watertight doors--ooops, forgot to install those, anyhow not cost-efficient, my pointy haired boss said we would make more money with JIT)?

A very few of us are getting worried, say, why is there ice on the deck? Did you hear that sound? "Steward, what's wrong? Why are we stopped?" "Oh nothing, here, sir, watch this TV show about a little Cuban boy and his puppy..."

None of those people had a clue they would die that night. Not a clue. Dinner, drinks, a walk around the deck before bed, and a few hours later they were in the water, sobbing, drifting off into hypothermia. The cries of the people in the water could be heard by the few who made it into the boats. The survivors said they never could forget the sound, the cries gradually fading away, for the rest of their lives.

Me, I'm looking at the bits of ice at my feet, the deck tipping ever so slowly, and I'm edging toward my lifeboat...

By the way, if you ended up in the water that night, you were dead. I think something like SIX people out of more than 1500 (Or was it seven? nine? single digit anyhow) were pulled alive out of the water when the rescue ships arrived. If you were going to survive that Night To Remember, you had damn well better be in a lifeboat.

Is *your* lifeboat ready?

Analogies are never perfect, but the Titanic analogy may still turn out to be accurate. For all our sakes, let's hope not. In any event, it's far too early to tell.

-- Andre Weltman (Whatdidthebandplay@that night.com), January 21, 2000.

You are a pestimist, I am an optimist. Only time shall tell, but based verifiable history, and not rumors, the ice at my feet is not from the iceberg but is overflowing from my fridge, keeping all those beers cold...

-- Freethinkr (ima@nut.com), January 21, 2000.

Thanks Andre, GREAT analogy!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 21, 2000.

Hmm, DoomerSpotter never answered, and his/her moderately abusive post went away. Feels like Y2kPro, under yet another alias perhaps, booted out by a sysop. Thanks. Amazing how thirsty pollies are for apologies.

For those just joining us, DoomerSpotter wanted an apology from me for all the damage I've caused by warning people about Y2k. In an earlier thread I promised to apologize to anyone who told me how I hurt them. He/she quoted that promise, hence my reply. The promise stands, but I have yet to hear that I caused damage.

Good. Trying to prevent damage, not cause it.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 21, 2000.

Freethinkr -

Not mutually exclusive, actually.

"Pessimist by policy, optimist by temperament -- it is possible to be both. How? By never taking an unnecessary chance and by minimizing risks you can't avoid. This permits you to play out the game happily, untroubled by the certainty of the outcome." --- Robert A. Heinlein, The Notebooks of Lazarus Long

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 21, 2000.

And we still have to include the very real February 29 problem, the embedded systems delayed effect (Jan.32, buffer fill-up, etc.), the "manual" operation returning to 'something', the rolled-back computer calendars forwarded to another 'something' (sooner or later), the un- reported events (legal issues), the flu impact upon IT and non-IT staff absenteeism, solar max, etc.

Damn good thread bw et al.

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 21, 2000.

[you can leave now Y2K Pro--Sysop]

-- Doomer Spotter (spot@thedoomer.s), January 21, 2000.

Thanks bw for another great post. What do you think is going on overseas, what with all the pirated code, mainframes, and embeddeds?

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), January 21, 2000.

Doomer Spotter, get a life, f**k off.

Thank you.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar.), January 21, 2000.

What George said.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

Really nice thread bw, good to see a truthful discussion. Made my day, thanks. :)

-- Will (righthere@home.now), January 21, 2000.

Here's what bw (Bum Wad?) said a short while ago.

"I'll be here. I always apologize for damage I cause, and I accept (but don't hunger for) credit for the good I manage to do.

I've predicted 50,000 dead in the US from exposure and hunger, and up to 300M dead worldwide from crop failures following a Y2k supply-line failure. I would be delighted to be wrong, but if I am it's hard to see where the damage is.

Yup, I'll be here, and anyone who I hurt is welcome to tell me so, and tell me how they were hurt, and I'll grovel accordingly.

bw (home@puget.sound), December 23, 1999.

Perhaps you should stick to what you're good at (whatever that may be)and leave the prognostications to people with IQs above room temperature. Your track-record thus far is abysmal

-- Doomer Spotter (spot@thedoomer.s), January 22, 2000.

Dommer Spotter,

You're either IGNORANT or CHILDISH! Wish I could find some middle ground here, but your posts place you squarely in this category.

There must be an adolescent forum somewhere for you. Oops, this might be giving you too much credit, let's look for a toddler forum!

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 22, 2000.

...jes using your sides own words Ray. Can I help it if so many of you are brain-dead endomorphs?

-- Doomer Spotter (spot@thedoomer.s), January 22, 2000.

bw, excellent post!!

I have my lifeboat!!

Hey DoomerSpotter.....take a timeout.....preferably in a Galaxy Far Far Away.

-- (karlacalif@aol.com), January 22, 2000.

BW: Excellent post. Thank you

Andre: Nice work

Freethinkr said: "the berg is realitively small and the damage is managable".

When we look back some 70 years to the "great depression" we see that the stock market "crashed" in 1929 but we are told that the market didn't hit bottom until 4 or 5 years later. The U.S.A. is a huge system. Even if it was mortally wounded, it could go on quite a distance before it even realized it was hit. You hunters out there know what I'm talking about.

If we liken the U.S.A. to a great ocean-going luxury liner, the Titanic, which sank, we are also taking into account that, just as the Titanic didn't sink in the first 10 minutes of scraping the iceberg, neither will the SS U.S.A. go down in 10 days unless all the power goes out. It didn't and we didn't. The Titanic still had power for quite some time, apparently, after hitting the 'berg. Hence, there was still dancing and partying going on. If Y2K has inflicted some serious though not mortal damage then it would take 6 months to a year before the damage became evident, perhaps a year before the press would report it as such, and probably 3 or 4 years before the full effects begin to be felt.

Unfortunately, and this I've maintained for a couple years now, but I'll say it again, Y2K will not happen in a vacuum. There are plenty of other problems in this world which will be more than willing to insinuate their ugly faces if the world goes into a depression which was tripped by Y2K. ...sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), January 22, 2000.