Warning: Entering Critical Time Frame for Dow

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The Dow dropped 138.06 points today, while the bubble.com mania continued on the Nasdaq as it set a new record.

Today is the start of the critical time period for a possible first wave down for the Dow, and this risk is expected to last until 5 February.

Just as conjecture, the recent price gains for the oil complex represents a threat to the continued stock market mania as it is beyond the control or influence of the FED. ALso, the trade deficit set a new record, another item not easliy changed. The PPT can't manipulate the price of oil like the prices of stocks because it is a real commodity, not a digital invention or accounting entry.

Consider very, very, carefully your decision to remain in the stock market, the first wave down should be massive and last until May.

-- Sure M. Hopeful (Hopeful@future.com), January 20, 2000


SMH, is this according to Comeau, the Elliot Waves or what?

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 20, 2000.

Sure: A couple of weeks ago, you posted a couple threads about Comeau predicting if the stock market reached 11,569 and did not go over it, that that was target market for the Dow to head south. It went over that number, but now it's back down to 11,351. Has Comeau made any remarks or more predictions for the future? Does that prediction stay? Thanks.

-- bardou (Bardou@baloney.com), January 20, 2000.

bardou, the mood of my coworkers has changed since last year. I've never seem them so SMUG and SMIRKY and CONFIDENT and COMPLACENT and ARROGANT.

Why so? Y2K came and went and nothing happened. So there. Same with the stock market crash. Won't happen, so shut up, dinosaur.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 20, 2000.

I am giving Comeau the benefit of the the doubt in that the Dow didn't exceed his maximum value of 11600 by that great an amount in percentage terms. The danger time period is based on his predictions, along with many other sources I have read about. I have not been able to track down any further postings by Comeau. I first heard of his work on the Long Wave discussion group. You must realize that his Elliot wave analysis is based from the 1932 depression low to now, and some "fudge" factor is to be allowed. Read any other technical or fundamental writer and you will see lots of escape doors inserted in their works. Comeau's predictions are very explicit and easy to understand. If the Bulls can get through the next 2/3 weeks unharmed, then it would seem the bubble can continue to expand to infinity. This was one of the greatest stock market booms in US history, starting from 1982 (when the FED first established the principle of bailing out whose that they considered too important to fail {Mexico's New York bankers in this case}). Be careful, this may come crashing down soon.

-- Sure M. Hopeful (Hopeful@future.com), January 20, 2000.

I just read on Yahoo business news where people are putting money into 401K mutual fund money markets. Bob Brinker of Money Talk is advising people to do the same. It doesn't bother me if people are smug and arrogant, I only care what's going to happen to my cushy lifestyle. I sure am glad I have preps and as I use them I'll replace them.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), January 20, 2000.

"Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall." -- Proverbs 16:18

This is what I'm perceiving in America now; it's much more blatant than last year.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 20, 2000.

smug, arrogant, cocky...downright NASTY...it's nice to hear other people are perceiving that....i'm experiencing it too, people are just being plain NASTY with their little remarks. they think they dodged the bullet. this whole society is ONLY 200 years old....a blip on the screen of the centuries....many advanced civilizations have disappeared so profoundly that they are dis-believed by many to have ever even existed...

-- INever (inevercheckmy@onebox.com), January 21, 2000.

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