OIL market still in disbelief...

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Oil Market Still In Disbelief - repost from GE

(noula) Jan 19, 16:51

I must say that the oil market still does not believe these higher prices are going to last. The Feb contract closed up $0.69 to $29.54, the March was up only $0.08 at $27.88 while the back months were actually down on the day. So far the nearby contract is playing catch-up with the spot price while the back months lag. I guess the market sees the loss of production as a temporary thing.

IMHO, this bull move is a long way from being finished. Once the market gets a wiff that production losses and cutbacks will be around for months, if not years, the prices for oil will go crazy ACROSS THE BOARD. The junior oils will make massive gains once this thinking comes to the fore.

We cannot be far off from a mass change in perception. 1 week, 2 weeks....??? Oil to $50 in a flash? Juniors up 200-1000%?

Keep ypour seatbelts fastened. We are now on the HYPERINFLATION INTERSTATE HIGHWAY, no exits for 10 years...........

"A commodity in hand is infinitely more valuable than a promise to deliver" - Y2K mantra

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000

Answers

Andy vomits out the following bold statement....We cannot be far off from a mass change in perception. 1 week, 2 weeks....??? Oil to $50 in a flash? Juniors up 200-1000%?

Keep ypour seatbelts fastened. We are now on the HYPERINFLATION INTERSTATE HIGHWAY, no exits for 10 years...........

Are you really an idiot? Or are you just playing one for our benefit? So sorry that y2k was such a bust.... go find another paranoid cause to trumpet, frankly, you are a freaking bore.....

-- mickey mouse (u_r@a_dipshit.com), January 20, 2000.


Andy -- I dunno.

It seems like your premise depends on it being a FACT that there will be months of problems. From what I have heard from our insiders, neither they nor their contacts know yet whether this is temporary or "months" long.

I had figured in December that it would be the end of January before we had the first (and only the first) long-term read on oil. I'm not sure I've seen anything that would change my opinion on that.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 20, 2000.


Big Dog...where is your contact in the mid east? What is he saying? Is he Stateside or returned to the oil countries? Sure would like to hear what he is saying about that area. Taz

-- Taz (Tassi123@aol.com), January 20, 2000.

Tax,

That's Dog Gone who has the Saudi contact, not BigDog.

Wrong mutt (grin)

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), January 20, 2000.


Mickey - I'm confused, you can obviously read, but naot, apparently, comprehend...

"Are you really an idiot? Or are you just playing one for our benefit? So sorry that y2k was such a bust.... go find another paranoid cause to trumpet, frankly, you are a freaking bore....."

Go back to the top of this thread.

You will notice the word "repost" and the fact that the author is noula, not myself.

Now, what was it you wanted to say?

BigDog

Likewise, noula has been following this in detail, much like myself. He has his perspective, I have mine. However I agree 100% with his post. I base this partly on my 3 years working in saiudi Arabia. i know how disorganised [read, useless] they are, and also how secretive they are. It will take time for the real situation to filter out, if you ever get the real status. Which is doubtfull. Not in their interests is it? they are in a win win situation whatever happens - hence the OPEC solidarity to september.

They know.

mickey mosuse, uh, doesn't.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.



Andy is going on the theory that if you throw enough shit against the wall, some of it will stick.........

In other words, eventually he just has to be right about something.......doesn't he?????

I'd love to play flip the coin with him....I can just see it now.....

Andy, 100 wrong guesses in a row, totally defying the odds, and still he'd be saying....

"I know what the next toss will be, it's gonna be heads....definitely heads and anyone who disagrees with me is an idiot polly.......

If a tree falls down in the forest and no one is around to see it, is Andy still wrong?

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), January 20, 2000.


Craig, I was waiting for you to surface. At least you use your real name and have a modicum of wit.

Now address the subject of oil markets in a state of disbelief...

What say you?

Is this an OPEC induced price conspiracy?

Or y2k hitting embeddeds?

What the hell happened in Ven?

And what is happening in Saudi?

Why a sudden announcement of a 4% shortfall?

======================================================================

OK Craig, gimme some answers.

OH! One last thing, whu the highest oil price in 10 years?

Silver up 10 cents today, gold six bucks, the CRB breaking out, long bonds heading for 7% plus....

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.


Ok guys - why the name calling and all - seemingly always initiated by the ones who are just sure Y2k is over, period, any other questions. Can't we just have civilized discussions or ignore the posts which we think are "idiotic."

And by the way, regardless of the lack of foresight by those who thought and think that Y2k was only a January 1st thing, and therefore criticize and degrade others who don't think that way. . . If I recall, there have been many people saying that Y2k was NOT a January 1st thing for months - including some officials from various governments.

If nothing significant happens by June, then I suppose we can close the book on Y2k. Of course I and Andy would agree that significant things have already happened, but the "Y2k is over!" people NEED a complete breakdown of society before they will admit anything went wrong. And even then . . .

-- robert bright (roosterbos@go.com), January 20, 2000.


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