I am not making any comment on either RC or the post below...

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Posted by (208.189.71.48) cpr on January 19, 2000 at 18:58:34:

Y2k Wheel at Texaco calls "RC" posts ""Bullshit....and you can quote me."

Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2000 19:55:19 -0600 From: "Leon A. Kappelman" Subject: rumors of oil patch problems In-reply-to: <38864569.CBE3EE82@brigadoon.com> To: cpsr-y2k

Some of this stuff found its way to the UN maillist for national y2k coordinators from about 180 countries. The subject line read: "Subject: FYI: Excerpt of a posting by "RC" regarding the status of the oil and gas industry..." The veracity of this and other posts is being checked by various parties from the UN list and I will share anything that is discovered. I passed the original message on to Jay Abshier who manages the y2k program @ Texaco, was instrumental in the formation of the oil/energy y2k group several years ago, was a member of the SIM Y2K Working Group, and also participated in EPRI's y2k activities. Jay speaks fluent Texan and minces no words as to the accuracy of the original posting:

------- Forwarded message follows ------- From: "Abshier, Joseph B (Jay)" To: "'Leon A. Kappelman'" Subject: RE: (Fwd) RE: Excerpt of a posting by "RC" regarding the status of... Date sent: Wed, 19 Jan 2000 18:33:29 -0600

Bullshit....and you can quote me. Jay Abshier Manager - Corporate Year 2000 Office Texaco Inc Bellaire, Texas

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-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), January 20, 2000

Answers

Consider the source.....The UN Y2K Coordinators could only find a handful of Y2K problems in the entire world, a PR Flack from Texaco is hardly a reliable source of information, and the good folks at the Debonkers site are mostly off the grid completely when it comes to rational thought about empirical evidence that clashes with their preconceived ideas about the way things are.

-- Carl Jenkins (Somewherepress@aol.com), January 20, 2000.

"Jay Abshier who manages the y2k program @ Texaco, was instrumental in the formation of the oil/energy y2k group several years ago, was a member of the SIM Y2K Working Group, and also participated in EPRI's y2k activities."

"Bullshit....and you can quote me. Jay Abshier Manager - Corporate Year 2000 Office Texaco Inc Bellaire, Texas"

You would think that with all of her worldly experience, Jay could find a better way to express her true feelings? It's a pity that seemingly intelligent people can put themselves in the gutter so easily. Methinks I've seen similar traits amongst visitors to this forum ...

-- fluent_tex@n.not (tw9@altavista.com), January 20, 2000.

Leon Kappelman is a person of honor. He may have said and done more about Y2K than any other person (more than any ten other persons could have accomplished)and I don't recall any of it ever being questioned for accuracy and truthfulness. Jay Abshire has been far more upfront about Y2K and the magnitude of the problem than most other Y2K project managers. For example, he allowed the Wired reporter into Texaco's testing facility as they were uncovering embedded system problems which was the focal point of the excellent article they published last spring. Since Jay Abshire is an identifiable person and RC is anonymous, issues of integrity have to, at first blush, be resolved in favor of Mr. Abshire.

That said, it is certainly possible that both people are truthfully reporting what they know. I believe that RC has previously stated that his familiarity with the oil industry is based on family connections with small, independent operators. It certainly is possible that the majors (or some majors) ran well funded remediation projects that resulted in plants and equipment that are now, mostly, running close to normal. It is also possible that large numbers of independents are now discovering that their remediation efforts were lacking (if they existed at all), and their operations are more dicey than normal.

There certainly is enough public evidence of problems in the industry to create some documentable case for trouble. (I hope to have time to do just that today). If that case is made, there can be some discussion into how great the impact might be and how long it might take to return to normal levels of production. However, I don't think there is any value in immediately challenging the credibility of anyone who states an opinion contrary to your own.

-- Jay Golter (JGolter@aol.com), January 20, 2000.

Methinks I've seen similar traits amongst visitors to this forum ...

Methinks I've seen even more disgusting behavior amongst certaing forum regulars (who claim to GI)

-- Butt Nugget (catsbutt@umailme.com), January 20, 2000.

Hello all This is my first time posting to a group. I've been reading all these posts in here since the rollover. I love it! It's so imformative and enjoyable. But just one question- Excuse my ignorance,but what is a DG and a DGI? Thanks

-- Erica Rivers (Erica39@AOL.com), January 20, 2000.

FWIW, I dusted the cobwebs off of my April 1999 issue of "Wired" magazine (the one that had a pitch black cover, entitled "Lights Out: Learning to Love Y2K"), which has a detailed account of Jay Abshier and the efforts of his team at Texaco. Seems legit, definitely NOT a "PR" type.

(Quotable quote from the article: "Back in July 1998, Jay Abshier, Texaco's Year 2000 project manager, wanted to alert people to Y2K. 'I want to show that Y2K is not a hoax', he said on the phone. Six months later, he wanted to calm everyone down: 'Now it's gone too far the other way, into overhyped fears'")

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), January 20, 2000.

Erica,

I think you probably meant GI and DGI. They are terms describing peoples' level of comprehension regarding all things Y2K. They either GI (Get It) or DGI (Don't Get It).

Jimmy

-- Jimmy Splinters (inthe@dark.com), January 20, 2000.

If Jay Abshier thinks it's "Bullshit" does he have the fortitude to step up to the plate and answer questions that RC has?? I doubt it !!!!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 20, 2000.

Ya know, bein' a newbie and all, I hate to be the Ugly American, but Mr. Abshier has made a very strong statement. I'd sure like to know the facts that he bases he one word evaluation on. It seems that the rest of us get taken to task on a regular basis for posting what appear to be strongly worded opinions. Is Mr. Abshier not subject to the same verification process?

Oh, and Jay, something more than a press release would be desireable.

Jimmy

-- Jimmy Splinters (inthe@dark.com), January 20, 2000.

RC is for real.

His predictions, if you haven't noticed, are materialising.

Look at Venzuela - force majeure.

Saudi is rumored to have major problems with possibly its 3rd largest port "toast".

The number of "incidents" at oil refineries compared to last year seems to be running at at least a 400% increase.

Therfore Jay's transparent statement is patently bullshit in the face of all evidence.

Oh, one last thing, we ar now at $30 a barrel, a 10 year high, with a 4% shortfall for 2000 [and THAT came out of NOWHERE... or did it... the 1973 recession was caused by a 4% shortfall too...]

So RC has called it right all along - please removed heads from collective asses and give the guy some credit you ungrateful slobs.

The market doesn't lie - the pricing indicates serious problems - period.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

Erica: Do you like to mudwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), January 20, 2000.

Who the hell are RC and Andy and why should anything they say be taken seriously? Of course they are entitled to their opinions but what would certify them as experts whose words have validity. Seems like every other day some pillar of wisdom comes to the forum and bleats out the newest gospel. Immediately, the supporting posts will appear only to vaporize when the message turns to raw sewage. This scenario repeats itself over and over yet the charlatans continue to suck people in. Control your own mind and dont be so quick to turn it over to others.

-- Look (at@the.facts), January 20, 2000.

"RC has called it right all along"

Check out our boy at http://www.tlc.net/rac/main.htm

Invasion of the saucermen?

Frankly I wouldn't believe it if RC foretold that the sun was goin' to rise tomorrow.

-- Looney Toons (whatsup@doc.com), January 20, 2000.

Look at the facts, my name is real.

Who the hell are you buddy, and what do you have to say?

Well???

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.

Andy Ol' Bud,

Your name might be real, but *YOU* are...um....what's the word....oh yeah. *UNREAL*

Hee hee, ha ha, ho ho, cluck cluck

***

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), January 20, 2000.

Chicken Little: Go pluck yourself.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), January 20, 2000.

LOLKOS:

I thik the amazing endorsement of RC and indirectly of the forum, is that a one-shot post like his was deemed substantive/informed/significant enough to be forwared to the UN Y2K coordinator's mail-list!!!! Huh? And they haven't got a few $Mil in funding and their own industry sources, that they need to be monitoring the TB2000 Board for .... whatever reason. Why are they here, and why is RC now in their mailbox? Speaks volumes.

>"<

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upin the.mizzenmast), January 20, 2000.

well said, Squirrel King.

-- LZach (lisa@texasnetworks.com), January 20, 2000.

It's pretty clear that RC has stumbled on to something that has the Oil industry bigshots in a panic. Looks like they're doing their best to spin the story, but they can't hide the truth forever.

-- (hal@gostek.org), January 20, 2000.

This Is Not a Test - For Texaco's millenium commandos, the war against Y2K is being fought one RTU at a time.

Back in July 1998, Jay Abshier, Texaco's Year 2000 project manager, wanted to alert people to Y2K. "I want to show that Y2K is not a hoax," he said on the phone. Six months later, he wanted to calm everyone down: "Now it's gone too far the other way, into overhyped fears."

Abshier is one of the very few corporate Y2K managers who wanted to speak on the record. He had an agenda, of course - "I want to show that Texaco is doing a good job," he said. But his larger goal was to deliver what surely is the most difficult message to convey about Y2K: that Year 2000 problems are real and may indeed be locally severe; and also that hard work, engineering good sense, and intercompany cooperation can minimize the damage.

-- Germane (to@this.discussion), January 20, 2000.

"Texaco" - Are these the same people who built huge superstructures that they call refineries on top of little embedded chips in such a way that if they failed they could not be gotten to to replace, rendering the whole facility useless or severely degraded? If only our enemies were so dumb!

-- (snowleopard6@webtv.net), January 20, 2000.

"Leon Kappelman is a person of honor."

Why did I snicker and think of "Men of Respect" when I read that?

(And of SHMUEL's Shakespeare quote about "they were all honorable men...")

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), January 20, 2000.

"Who the hell are RC and Andy and why should anything they say be taken seriously?"

Gee, where were you when The Federalist Papers were making the rounds?

You could have saved us from... having a country!

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), January 20, 2000.

Jay's logic seems to be tantamount to, "No one has ever broken into my house. Hence, we conclude that there is no such thing as 'burglary'."

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), January 20, 2000.

Ron Schwarz is a sissy.

(Well, he is)

-- Ron (is@sissy.com), January 20, 2000.

Is RCambab the same as this Coombs feller?

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), January 20, 2000.

The Fact Ratings: (scale 0 Total BS to 10 Right on the Money)

FORREST: 10 Presented the email as is without comment for review. Admirable.

CARL: 0 Jay is the Manager of Texacos corporate Y2K office as noted, the email was to Kappelman considered more of an alarmist than accurate by most debunkers, and the debunkers were right about Y2K and were proven to be a good soure of accurate y2k information.

FLUENT_TEX: 8 First to provide accurate background on Jay, but Jay is a guy.

JAY: 7 Not a bad start, a very warm post. But public evidence of problems in the industry to create some documentable case for trouble.  is without evidence, in fact the evidence is to the contrary. Eagerly await Jays documented EVIDENCE that problems are caused by y2k. Good luck in your mission :)

BUTT: No rating. Pot calls kettle black.

KOS: 10 (first post) Facts, pure and simple.

ANDY: 0. No evidence of Y2K causes of any of the problems cited, cites RC a consitent 0 source, uses oil prices to blow smoke. Ends with namecalling to seal the proof, no evidence that said names were accurate was presented.

HAL: 0. Accurately calling RCs nonsense BS is hardly spinning a story, it is however, a very strong opinion by someone who actually knows some of the facts about Y2K in the oil industry.

GERMANE: 10

SNOWLEOPARD6: 0 for reference to inaccessible chips myth, or if this was tongue-in-cheek humor, a 10.

RON: 0. Compares Andy and RC with founders of our country, 10 if this was actually intended to be EXTREME tongue-in-cheek humor.

Posts with no claims of fact were not rated. All in all, a good thread, actual facts were presented by many! --------------------- Some followup information (courtesy debunkers) from the same mail list:

Texaco Y2k Leader Abshier on: *Rumors of oil patch problems* >Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 00:17:04 -0600 >From: "Abshier, Joseph B (Jay)" >Subject: RE: rumors of oil patch problems >To: "'Leon A. Kappelman'" , cpsr-y2k >X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2448.0) >Delivered-to: mailing list cpsr-y2k@cpsr.org >Delivered-to: moderator for cpsr-y2k@cpsr.org >Mailing-List: contact cpsr-y2k-help@cpsr.org; run by ezmlm > >I wish people would stop passing on this stuff. I told anyone who would >listen over a year ago that we couldn't find anything in producing or >refining that would shut down production. Didn't the fact that nothing >substantial happened during the rollover convince everyone this was correct? >Give it up. > >Jay Abshier >Manager - Corporate Year 2000 Office >Texaco Inc -------------

Well said Jay.

Regards,

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), January 20, 2000.

Actually, Ron was insulting "R.C.", in a subtle way.

Since according to "R.C.", the Founders were part of a Masonic Conspiracy.

BWAHAHAHAHAHA

-- LMAO (too@funny.here), January 20, 2000.