Now many Y2K experts said as we nearer the approaching year 2000 there would be an increase of more breakdowns and computer failures. So far it appears to be so. I was just given a list to confirm that there was a big increase of computer breaksdowns relating to Oil, Gas and a few other things and this failure curve started picking up soon in the year 1996:

1990 had 3 breakdowns, 1991 had one breakdown, 93 and 93 and 94 had 1 breakdown each, 95 had 2, Now 96, a sudden big jump in failures, this must be when the bell curve started, it had 6 breakdowns, 97 had 5 breakdowns but look at 1998, this year had MORE THAN TRIPLE the amount of breakdowns with 29 of them, The year 1999 had a whopping 93 breakdowns more than triple last year's amount and the year 2000 has had fourfold the amount again. We had 412 breakdowns (both major and minor) in the first 19 days of the month. That's more than the whole decade put together !

-- Brent Nichols (b-nichol@ihug.co.nz), January 19, 2000

Answers

Mr Nichols

Sir I am sad to say it. But I believe that you will cause Mistress Cherri to have a hemmorage (when she reads your stats.)

But you are correct sir, this is pretty close to what some one I know found, when he/I ran a comp. simulation last year.( I saw the end of the predictive bell curve).

That's when I went on a sabatical, opened ended. And infomagic may well be right after all.

11 1/2 months left on the clock. And the Fat Lady is really starting to clear her throat, don't you think?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in-a-bunker@forty.feet), January 19, 2000.

I do not really understand what the numbers are.

Secondly, it is very important to remember that the very years that you speak of are years where the number of computers was growing dramatically.

You may also have noticed that the number of automobile accidents increased after Henry Ford introduced the model T.

Not a Polly here, just suggesting you consider.

-- stat (stat@stats.stat), January 19, 2000.

My dear Stat

Your point might have had validity. Saving for just a couple of points. (1) There has been no increase in the number of refineries. (2) during 93' to 97' there was an extensive effort to digitalize all the refineries. (this was to decrease the numbers of people required to run the refinery(s). Honey Well, amoung others made a lot of money converting these old. (The last one I did {finished} was just out side of Hobbs, N. Mexico). And it was originally built in 1939.

The last one I was on, was a Diamond Shamrock up in the Texas pan handle. And for some unknown reason, the customer shut down a several millions dollars job in mid stream, and went back to the original manual controls (of course, in 1997, we didn't know a anything about Y2K.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), January 20, 2000.

Wow thanks guys, have been off line for awhile.. but is nice too see you all keeping the "pole" Still preping here... thanks...and I am not LL's sister.

-- sandy (rstyree@overland.net), January 20, 2000.