RE: 1Q200 Force Majeure: Venezuela, Nigeria (so far) - otherwise known as "Sorry, no oil - Act of God".

Subject: Kiss Your Asses Good-Bye
Date: 05/27/1999
Author: fedinfo

Venezuela Faces $1.5 Billion Y2K Computer Problem
Full Coverage Year 2000 Problem

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela needs to spend $1.5 billion in an effort to prevent possible computer chaos coinciding with the change to the year 2000, with the nation's electrical system particularly vulnerable, senior officials said Wednesday.

Presidential Chief of Staff Alfredo Pena said the previous government, which left office in February, made absolutely no preparations for a problem that requires urgent attention.

``Public services could be paralyzed, mainly because of problems with electricity,'' he said.

The head of the government Central Office of Statistics and Computing, Gustavo Mendez, said Venezuela was one of the least well-prepared countries in the world.

``We are very behind and it is very, very serious. We need $1.5 billion for this, which was not approved by the previous government,'' Pena told journalists at the Miraflores presidential palace.

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Look, Pollyannas are IDIOTS. Not mistaken. Not confused. Not misguided.

IDIOTS.

The US gets 17% of its OIL from Venezuela. In a few more months it will get NONE from Venezuela.

Are the middle eastern countries, from which we obtain OIL, ready? No.

We will not be getting ONE DROP of OIL from overseas. NOT ONE DROP.

This country collapses in a heartbeat without OIL.

Not only that, but the OIL is worthless within refining capability. Name ONE refiner that is remdiated, tested and back in production.

Not one.

Only an IDIOT does not understand the consequrnces of this. Hence, Pollyannas. It is not POSSIBLE to overlook the gravity of the impending Venezuelan collapse. ONLY someone who deceives and LIES to oneself can explain it away.

Like brock, egan, dechert, echristi, slider, et al. They are liars and deceivers. They dissuade people from preparing their families.

"Nothing bad will happen". "Only local problems overseas will occur"

Millions and millions of people are going to die as a direct and indirect result of Y2K. Most will do absolutely nothing to prepare themselves and their families.

Now.....

Name one significant OIL exporting country that is PROVEN to be compliant in their OIL exporting capability. That capability to include all the myriad of dependencies.

NOT one.

Only clueless, abject idiots, HAVING the ability to prepare, will remain in populated areas.

Now we will anticipate the obligatory whining by brock . Devoid of any facts, depleted of information, egan will rear his consumately ignorant keyboard. Then, the master of cognitive dissonance, echristi will regale us with self-deceptive blather. While dechert will counsel yet another unsuspecting, drooling moron not to prepare. Like my own brother.

Not one of them will explain why the as yet to begin Venezuelans, by their own admission without the funds, are not toast.

The answer is that they simply do not LIKE the conclusion that we are certain to experience complete economic collapse. The are utterly ignorant of the incredibly precarious financial context of Y2K, the mountains of debt, the totally unprepared global banking system.

Collapse is inevitable. Get out of populated areas now, with your families, if you have any common sense left at all.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990526/tc/yk _venezuela_1.html -- Paul Milne
If you live within five miles of a 7-11, you're toast.

-- Total Doomer (sky@falling.com), January 18, 2000

Answers

Total Doomer,

I believe that Nigeria used the "force majeure" term when one of its refineries was shut down a week or so ago because of local terrorist attacks on one of its pipelines. The term is not meant to impress any of us peons, but rather to to provide a legal "excuse" for what would otherwise be known as "breach of contract."

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 19, 2000.

There's a Seven Eleven 4.9 miles from my house - guess I'm "toast".

-- Phil Erup (im@totally.toast), January 18, 2000.

feels like old times, heh

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 18, 2000.

Yeah Hokie, and despite my fears to the contrary, it looks like I'm not the only doomer left alive on the planet. But just watch, if "Total Doomer" is right, a zillion wafflers will suddenly jump back on the doomer bandwagon claiming they knew it all along.

-- elskon (elskon@bigfoot.com), January 18, 2000.

Total Doomer,

I am not a pollanna nor am I a Doomer. I have prepared for the worst case, without disrupting my life. One thing that I don't get is why Venesuela needs money to fix the electical system? The embedded system problem hasn't been a problem anywhare else in the world. Why would they have problems? I get the feeling the refineries will be having problems but am not convinced they will be so bad to put them out of business for very long. I think they are looking for any reason they can find to try and raise foreign charitable support. Why after seeing how little impact y2k has had arround the world would you jump to these conclussions?

-- Gambler (scotanna@arosnet.com), January 18, 2000.

This was a Milne message from May of 1999. I assume it was posted to show his views on Venezuela and the probability that they would survive the rollover. It may also be that the poster thinks this has some relationship to the current situation in Venezuela.

Paul Milne has been the most consistently wrong of all the Y2K "gurus". In addition, he has never had a post that I've seen that didn't include name-calling, invective, and ad hominem arguements. Why anyone still thinks he has anything important to say is beyond me.

Jim

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), January 19, 2000.

1) Gambler - go back and read the date on PAUL's essay.

2) Those of us who were here before September, and managed not to buy totally into Kosky's little "Power" play, will remember that there were 2 basic scenarios, the sharp sudden crash (highlighted with power going south) and the (Vodka, so. Comfort, Sloe gin, and OJ) [Slow comfortable screw] slow slide down the hill.

Folks, with the oil situation and the supply chain situation (MORE ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN IN ABOUT 10 DAYS i PROMISE) WE ARE LOOKING AT THE SLOW SLIDE SCENARIO OR ONE OF ITS MANY VARIATIONS.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 19, 2000.

When is the last time ANYONE heard the phrase "force majeur"? Just an odd coincidence? Can power surges cause refinery explosions? Can embedded systems failures cause refinery explosions? Why reset Av Gas manufacturing processes in 4Q1999, that wind up making unprecedented amounts of "thick gunk that you wouldn't put in your lawnmower"?

Why not a problem anywhere else in the world? I believe the embedded system problem will unwwind over 1Q2000 (as Gartner originally projected). Personally, I'm waiting for Gazprom failures, and the need to "secure" the Caspian fields for Russian national security "once and for all".

The absence of spectacular failures 1Jan2000 merely gives time to review and practice preparations; we recently discovered the downside of "environmentally friendly, no spill" gas-cans; spouts aren't long enough to reach anything, and the locking mechanism winds up spilling more on the ground than in the fuel tank.! Home Depot took them all back. Rotate/refill those Rubbermaid plastic gascans.

-- Total Doomer (sky@falling.com), January 19, 2000.

TD;

Unless you're suggesting we can multiply plastic containers of fuel like Christ did with the fish and loaves, then pray tell me kind sir; when it comes to gas, where does the word "adequate" come in?

Pass the "spread" - I'm toast ...

-- Phil Erup (WhatDiff@DoesIt.make), January 19, 2000.

[Fair use for eductional and research purpose only]

LICENSING

Force Majeure

Force Majeure literally means "greater force". These clauses excuse a party from liability if some unforseen event beyond the control of that party prevents it from performing its obligations under the contract. Typically, force majeure clauses cover natural disasters or other "Acts of God", war, or the failure of third parties--such as suppliers and subcontractors--to perform their obligations to the contracting party. It is important to remember that force majeure clauses are intended to excuse a party only if the failure to perform could not be avoided by the exercise of due care by that party.

When negotiating force majeure clauses, make sure that the clause applies equally to all parties to the agreement--not just the licensor. Also, it is helpful if the clause sets forth some specific examples of acts that will excuse performance under the clause, such as wars, natural disasters, and other major events that are clearly outside a party's control. Inclusion of examples will help to make clear the parties' intent that such clauses are not intended to apply to excuse failures to perform for reasons within the control of the parties.

http://search.excite.com/relocate/sr=webresult|ss=force+majeure|id=162 26757;http://www.library.yale.edu/~llicense/forcegen.shtml

-- Dee (T1Colt556@aol.com), January 19, 2000.

>Unless you're suggesting we can multiply plastic containers of fuel like Christ did with the fish and loaves, then pray tell me kind sir; when it comes to gas, where does the word "adequate" come in?

Phil Erup:

I assume by your previous posts that you mean how much? (Is there a sneer?) My questions are where are you now, and where would you wish to go (if anywhere)? If automobile gas were rationed, which has happened before in historical memory, would you need to get to: an airport (for a 767 or a Cessna)? your yacht (true prep story, not me though)? a hospital (I have a baby with recurrent ear infections)? friends? family (my sister-in-law says has enough gas stored to come to my locale; at least she can field strip an AR-15)? You need to make the call.

Mr Yourdon: Yes, I realize that is the report from Nigeria. Oddly enough, my sister works for/with FinCEN, and pointed out the high degree of disinformation RE all sources of news from that country (when we were discussing another matter). The timing certainly is odd.

-- Total Doomer (sky@falling.com), January 19, 2000.

"Force Majeure" is a very common item in agreements in the chemical and petroleum businesses. It is not commonly called upon. It is usually proclaimed when a supplier has experienced a catastrophic loss of production equipment.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), January 19, 2000.