Before I get started if anybody gets the idea that your going to find hard facts on black and white, it's not going to happen. At least not at this stage that were in. But that will be after the fact. I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANYONE BUYING HIGH RISK OIL OPTIONS OR FUTURES. The best way to take advantage of any coming move is buy oil stocks and outright physical gold with absolutely no leverage. Some gold stocks maybe OK, but I stress physical gold only. No one can take you out when you own gold thats free and clear with no leverage. Now as far as what I know. Very few oil barons in the business are going to tell you anything. Right now any that really knows where oil is going are scrambling for funds to get in on the bonaza coming down the pike. When I say few I mean there is nobody stupid enough to be in the oil business to let the cat out of the bag until all their ducks are lined up in a row. And they are so tight lipped they will let someone else do the talking. No one wants to get caught up in insider trading laws and wind up with their neck in a nose. Out of all the barons I know, only one is hinting to me what and where oil is going. He's been acting very strange because I know him very well. He has always been more than honest with me, but I don't know how many throats he has had to cut to get where he is. He still is very tight lipped and has thrown a few numbers out to me with time is very short. I figure 30 days, I know him well enough to guess what he's thinking. 60 to $90 a barrel is what he said. The reason for the rise is oil has been priced in cheap dollars too long and with oil problems in the system and a war over it in the works it's going to explode in price. That's it, there is no more to tell and don't ask. PERIOD. Good luck everyone.

-- JC (jc@yahoo.com), January 18, 2000

Answers

"Oil problems in the system" is the only phrase in this message that looks like it might have some remote connection to Y2K -- and I realize that's quite a stretch on my part.

But wouldn't it be ironic if it turned out that (a) Y2K was only a "straw", but (b) it turned out to be the straw that broke the camel's back...

I think that a common theme we're seeing in many of these industries is that the "insiders" barely know what's going on themselves, they're doing their best to outwit other insiders with whom they compete on a day-to-day basis, and they're certainly not telling the "outsiders" (customers, citizens, random folks like you and me) what's really going on. Is there a computer problem somewhere in there, deep within the fog? Maybe, maybe not... I sure as hell don't know at this point.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 18, 2000.

Earl,

Re the thread on "report from the Carribean" down below ... I've been reading these postings from "Alex" for the past few days, and I have no idea whether he's (a) a sly, subtle, dry-humored troll, (b) completely genuine, (c) stark raving mad, or (d) missing some neural connections, (e) all of the above, or (f) none of the above. If I take his last posting at face value, they're running their business systems with the clocks still set back in 1999 ... I assume that that's going to cause problems, sooner or later.

And didn't he post something a few days ago, indicating that the payroll system was late, and the boss ("the lion" who roars) was going to yell at them?

I don't recall seeing "Alex" posting anything prior to the rollover, so I have no way at all of evaluating his "bona fides"

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 18, 2000.

OK thanks. Anybody seen the sports section?

-- (@ .), January 18, 2000.

What do you mean when you say oil is priced in cheap dollars? The dollar has been fairly strong in recent years.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), January 18, 2000.

Ed, it sure won't take too long to find out whether "there's a computer problem somewhere in there" in the oil business. Both upstream and downstream operations are too transparent, worldwide, to keep it in the dark forever. It's not like the gold market where price manipulation can go by unnoticed by the layman. Oil makes the world go round, literally. So if problems keep piling up (Y2K? who cares?) prices will hit Joe Sixpack's pocket book, sooner than later.

Ed, what's your take on February 29's impact?

Take care.

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 18, 2000.

Hey ED Yourdon, What is your take on "report from the Carribean" about 10 threads down on this forum? Should we laugh or cry?

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), January 18, 2000.

So ... we are back to inuendo and rumor, NOT hard facts. Sorry JC, that just isn't good enough. If oil hits $60-90 ... the stock market will have long since tanked, the oil stocks along with it ... if they hadn't been nationalized by then! As far as a war in the works ... there may not be enough oil to have a war .... war requires HUGE amounts of oil nowadays and if wells and refineries are having Y2K problems, that doesn't leave much oil to play war games with! As far as oil being cheap and just catching up ... that too is a lame excuse .... but go ahead, jack the price up ... so that alternative fuel sources can take off and be competitive with oil. Wasn't that the game foolishly played to knock the Kyoto talks off tracks so that the global warming steam would deflate the alternative energy development .... keep those oil prices low and you won't get alternative energy off the ground? No JC ... you will have to do better than that as you dance around with your fake email addresses. I did like your .... Y2K is about OIL, everything else can wait. My version is ... you can fix all the computers in the world, but if you don't have enough fuel to run them ... they are worthless! I think we learned the hard way how easily the internet can too quickly legitimize rumor. That dog don't bark any more. I am keeping score though on how many refineries have problems, and would love to know from someone out there what has happened to oil wells and their sleeping embedded chips .... has Prince Charming begun to awake them yet? Is that why the drillers are hitting new highs?

-- Lee Barber (LeeeeeeB@webtv.net), January 18, 2000.

Dave, dollars are cheap because they've been easy to get. The world is currently swimming in a sea of liquidity thanks to the Fed's policy of expanding credit without limit. In that sense, dollars are very cheap. Of course, as soon as Uncle Al is forced to take liquidity back, hold on to your hat and kiss your sweet ass goodbye. 'Cause then every commodity, not just oil, skyrockets...

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 18, 2000.

I wouldn't want my "neck in a nose" either.... too tight a fit, unless it's a Jimmy Durante nose.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), January 18, 2000.

---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- GLOBALIZING CURRENCIES CONTINUES January 18, 2000 The Washington Post reported: "President Jamil Mahuad of Ecuador put a radical proposal to his 13 million citizens last week. Let's get rid of our inflation-ravaged currency, the sucre, he said, and replace it with something that everyone can trust: the U.S. dollar.  It's called dollarization and ever since 1997, when a financial panic swept over much of the world, destroying the value of one currency after another, some victimized countries have been flirting with what can appear to be a simple, one-stroke solution. Argentina gave serious thought to converting to the dollar earlier this year, but backed off. It's also been discussed with varying degrees of seriousness in Mexico and several countries in Central America. The dollar is the currency in Panama, not because of any recent economic woes but because of that country's century-long relationship with the United States. David Rothkopf, chief executive of Newmarket Co., an international affairs consultancy, goes so far as to say that with today's global economy the days of small currencies may be numbered. Do they have any right to exist in the world anymore, in a world economy where the flows in these markets are so great?...The answer is no, he said. Ultimately these currencies will go the way of the New Jersey pound, he added, referring to the days in which the American colonies had their own currencies...In Europe, 11 countries that last year introduced a common currency, the euro, are hoping it will increase general economic efficiency. TheGLOBALIZING CURRENCIES CONTINUES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), January 18, 2000.

After looking at the long term cycle of oil, I see oil will have a great upswing for two months. 2001 and 2002 will both be down years.

-- Just John (John@theBaptist.net), January 18, 2000.

I think JC got a little confused. The dollar has historically been strong. There is a case to be made for crude being denominated in something other than dollars. If I was an Arab sitting on a lot of crude, that's what i'd be thinking right about now.

Most economies have been looking at us clearly for sometime now. We unfortunately still have our blinders on. If I want maximum value for my crude oil and I'm an Arab, I'd be hedging those greenbacks right now.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 18, 2000.

Ed, we had better hope there is no problems with oil. Because if there is, they might not be able to power those generators that were used at the CDC to fool the masses into thinking the power was still on.

-- Butt Nugget (catsbutt@umailme.com), January 18, 2000.

g.g - maybe the Arabs will want to be paid in Euros with the gold backing them....maybe that is why the price has been kept down articfically, so enough gold can be accumulated in Europe to back their currency...but I guess it would not just have to be in Europe? And that will pressure the $US - is there some way the euros can get the oil price changed from the dollar?

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), January 18, 2000.

Euro's, you've got to be kidding. The Euro is a half-way house nothing more. The oil shieks will look for 100 % tangible asset that means gold not a currency that is backed 20 % (maybe) on a promise that bit them before (Nixon).

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), January 18, 2000.

No facts, everyone is tight lipped, and no one is going to let the cat out of the bag. See, I told you so, only a handful of people really know what the future holds in oil. I have a nose for these type of scenarios so I don't get my neck in a noose.

P.S. Another oil refinery explosion in Louisiana tonight, another one to add to the list of many.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), January 18, 2000.

Thanks Ed, You are aces with me. Earl

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), January 18, 2000.

hey is'nt that LL ??

-- X (*.*@*.xxx), January 18, 2000.

Lots of speculation here, - but squid is right. The U.S. dollar is presently worth only slighty more than 1/4 of it's 'weight' in Fort Knox gold. The Arabs will go for gold. I don't think that's speculation. - Jesse.

-- Jesse Brackstone (twcs@direct.ca), January 19, 2000.