OT - Talk of continued OPEC restraints push IPE Brent crude higher

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Talk of continued OPEC restraints push IPE Brent crude higher TSE O&G stocks continue to surge By KERM YERMAN In London, buoyant oil prices pushed higher on Monday amid expectations of supply shortages after OPEC signaled it would prolong curbs on exports beyond March. Benchmark Brent crude for March delivery finished 48 cents stronger at $25.65 a barrel, less than a dollar below a nine-year peak of $26.15 struck last month.

-- Dee (T1Colt556@aol.com), January 18, 2000

Answers

Why do so many reporters act like they are surprised by continued restraints? The restraints seem to be working well, so why would they not continue them? It seems like no one knows why oil prices continue to rise and reporters are grasping at straws to find a reason.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), January 18, 2000.

Dave,

You are correct. I've been involved with oil and commodity market reporting for over a decade. The reported reasons generally don't cause the moves. The markets move and the 'reporters' grope for a reason. There's no better example than today's surging oil market. Crude rallying like a scalded dog and no one except those behind the big buy orders know why...

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 18, 2000.


Errrr Downstreamer, You and Dave are several miles apart. He seems to agree that the reported reason for the surge is the announcement of continued production limits.

Others of us are wondering if there isn't something buggy happening under the rose as it were.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 18, 2000.


Chuck....

Could be part of your answer..

***VENEZUELAN REFINERY PROBLEM PUSHES REFINED PRODUCTS UP FURTHER 1/18 - - Reports of a major problem with one of the largest catcrackers in the western hemisphere has sent refined products futures higher this morning, in some cases helping them surpass post Gulf War highs.

Industry reports say that Venezuela has suffered a mechanical problem at its huge 635,000 b/d Amuay Bay refinery and the unit may be lost for as long as three weeks. The 110,000 b/d catcracker is Venezuela's largest producer of finished gasoline, and traditionally accounts for a number of cargoes each month to the U.S. East Coast.

Gasoline futures were up some 2.03cts gal just after midday, with about a penny of the increase attributed to the refinery news. February no-lead stood at 76.55cts gal.

While the unit's downtime shouldn't have much impact on distillate production, the news helped galvanize an already strong No. 2 oil futures market. Just after Noon EST, February No. 2 oil futures were up 2.345cts gal to 76.15cts gal. - Tom Kloza, tkloza@opisnet.com

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), January 18, 2000.


Chuck,

I don't think Dave and Downstreamer are too far apart. Downstreamer is simply saying what analyst watchers have said for year: "the markets move and the fools try to pin a reason on it." The reason has to fit into a sound byte.

Dave simply asked, "Didn't everyone see this reason well in advance?"

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), January 18, 2000.



Who are the person's that are behind the big buy orders? Are these people/companies required to attach a name to these huge buy orders? In other words, is it possible to find out who is buying all the oil and driving the price up?

Also, where does the directive typically come from to make such massive buys? In other words who would have the ultimate authority or is in the know enough to say we need to buy oil, so... "BUY NOW"! Is it a CEO, brokers or who? Thanks -L.

-- Lucy (nospam@thankyou.com), January 18, 2000.


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