Y2K seems now to be the mere inconveniences that the irritating pollies said it would be.I've been wrong before but I've never before been so happy to have been wrong.Any hard core doomers still left out there?

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), January 15, 2000

Answers

Yes, 'cause we are only seeing the initial reports of pipeline outages, refinery failures, chemical plant leaks, electrical generating facility problems, office tower HVAC outages, bank and credit company errors and God only knows what else is going wrong. Do I want to see cascading failures mounting into some sort of ultimate failure? HELL NO!

Like you I'm very glad that things have held together this long. Electric lights, telephones, running water, automatic heat, cars and groceries on the store shelves are wonders of modern life. But I do see the serious potential for an uncontrollable chain of events sparked by further Y2K failures.

TEOTWAWKI as in the Mad Max movies come to life? What has ever been the odds of that. Less than one percent but lots higher than winning the lottery? If we go into another oil crisis, worse than what we went through in the seventies along with the economic shocks won't that be the end of the world as we know it?

If suddenly everyone's economic priorities are food & water, shelter, fuel, transportation and to heck with theme park vacations, DVD's, satellite TV systems, designer clothes and $200 sneakers, won't that be the end of the consumerist world as we currently know it?

I'm very concerned that this will occur and you call me a Doomer holdout if you wish. It's going to take at least four months, one full business quarter and the reporting cycle to get a true feeling of absolutely no failures of major consequence to call Y2K a non- threatening event.

I'm not holding my breath for the all-clear to be sounded. I'm still Doomerishly making preparations 'cause I don't want to be caught without something I could need in a transition to a back-to-basics lifestyle needed to get us through economic hard times. If I lose my job to unforseen economic problems, it's and end to my current consumerist lifestyle world and I'll have to adjust to life in a new world with changed rules.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 15, 2000.

I think this is a most interesting question in light of the last week. First, thanks to the efforts of Maxus and his cohort we "consumers" are aware we are not safe from the depredation of those we call "outsiders", no matter what our social or economic status. I personally am extremely displeased by the fact that I must now monitor-carefully-my credit card statements and bank statements: error is error, whether program/date or hacker related. I do not feel alone. Maxus and Co. and their exploits will have an impact upon all of us with the income to indulge in possession of "plastic": no matter how disagreeable we find his behaviors. This is a most significant alteration to our environment and our behavior.

I have just perused the information on the ICBM and intelligence satellite performance and projected implementation as reported last in mainstream media in comparison with initial government releases. The latest information appears to be substantiated and is in conflict with "palatable" material released by mainstream sources upon Y2K rollover. That presents a processing conflict between information freely given by "reliable" sources and information "forced" from those same sources: No Y2K problems? Based on these incidents alone, this would be a very challengable statement.

I frequent the forum as a lurker and try occasionally to contribute, although not skilled in relating my ideas to the membership.I regard this group of participants as a reliable information resource on psychological attitude as well as events: Forum members post verifiable information frequently conflicting with "mainstream" presentation of roll-over status or information simply not given elsewhere.

I respectfully suggest to you that TEOTWAWKI has indeed occurred. It was very amusing to indulge in speculation prior to 01012000. There were few verifiable discrepancies in the accessible data base and fatalities were not a daily question. Now, there are, death is. Perhaps the acronym, which I only learned within the last two weeks, simply translates into the fact that knowledge is now available to all of us to use in a manner that will produce good to the whole. Indeed, if this is true that will be an end to the world as it once was known.Information is available to EVERYONE: the individual is accountable for processing it and ignorance may soon not be justification for inaction -a point already in effect in your judicial system. So, a great gift or terrible irony for the most technologically advanced generation of the earth.

-- charlie in houston (clm@workmail.com), January 15, 2000.

Charlie, interesting array of comments. Somewhat abstract. What is your judicial system? I agree, TEOWAWKI occurred. I suspect it occurred for the US before most folks even heard of y2k. We just don't know it yet.

Re: ignorance no longer being justification for not acting? ..not in America baby; dumb and dumber remains the preferred condition of our masses. Heck, just watch the 6 o'clock news. It's a breeding ground for ignorance. Inconsistent stories? Just read the headline mantras enough, and folks tune it out, so they won't even register or explore inconsistencies.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 15, 2000.

Yes, zoobie, I'm still a TEOTWAWKI doomer. Y2k is not a 1/1/2000 problem, but a 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2000 problem. We are just in the first two weeks of this mess, and problems are starting to accumulate even as we write - gas lines, refineries, chem. factories, etc., not to mention the bubble market and the hyper-inflation the increased money supply may cause. IMHO, this wasn't going to be a great, one time, "slice your head off" kind of collapse, but a death from a 1000 cuts.

I never thought much would show up before the 2nd half of January, and even later if the goons in goobermint can keep the spin going. This isn't a new position for me. I always thought this would be the way it would go.

So our crow of victory may be premature. As Ahab, that old Istaeli king once said, "Let not him that putteth on his armor, boast like him that taketh it off." I would be happy to be wrong as well, but I'm I'm not taking my armor off.

-- elskon (elskon@bigfoot.com), January 15, 2000.

Agree completely with WW.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 15, 2000.

IMHO nothing is forever and the one thing you can count on is change. We have been blessed to have a cycle of wealth for a long time in this country. I know that the good times won't go on forever and I feel I'm seeing the signs of change in my lifetime.

Increased population, the eroding of our middle class, and the aging infrastructure are some of the warning signs. I believe we have been buying time with technology but as y2k pointed out that is a poor bandage.

I guess TEOTWAWKI depends on if the system collapses with a bang or a whimper. If a crisis such y2k or a war knocks out our ever weakening supports and we go down with a bang, it will be TEOTWAWKI or sudden chaos. If we slowly go down in a whimper it will take so many years for the erosion of our society that we on this forum will be long dead. However the damage will be so long term, that the phoenix won't be able to rise out of the ashes again.

Looking at things long term, maybe TEOTWAWKI is the preferable option.

-- Mabel Dodge (cynical@me.now), January 15, 2000.

One each, TEOTWAWKI'er reporting in!

holding steady at:

praying it stays less than a 10, expecting a 100, prepping for a 1000!

15 days down, 352 days to go - we're 4.2% of the way thru the year ... steady as she goes sir!

-- hiding in plain (sight@edge of.nowhere), January 15, 2000.

I am CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC. I'll not be ready to close the door on Y2K until July 1st or so. IF the oil is still flowing by then, and IF the global supply chain is working, and IF we're not in a serious nationwide or worldwide recession/depression, I'll close the book on this whole nasty business and move on.

Until then, I'm keeping a wary eye on it.

FWIW

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), January 15, 2000.

Although I'm more relaxed, I defnitely think there's a high possibility of some really rotten Y2K effects--or more effects, I should say, as we probably have seen some bad ones, just weren't sure which ones were Y2K. I also feel there's a strong likelihood of solar flares or natural disasters that will compound our problems. And, yes, the economy will feel a big impact. Actually, I'm an optimist, not a pessimist. I'm simply trying to be realistic. Hold onto several months of preps.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 16, 2000.

Good thought Mara!

Regardless of whether or not Y2K has run its course or not (too early to tell by a long shot...) I am thankful for the loud and jolting alarm given us all!

There are lots and lots of threats out there. One can't prepare for 'em all, save trusting one's eternal soul to the care and protection of Jesus Christ. That's top priority!

Living less dependant and more in contact with your neighbour has really made a positive difference to me! To quit now would be foolish, to continue with prayer and diligence is the height of wisdom.

Godspeed friends!

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 16, 2000.

I've been a lurker since Oct. 1999. Love the debates and disucussion!

Still prepping like I was, pre-rollover (Oct. 1998). Starting seeds now. I am not conviced all is OK, there are too many "non-events" happening.

Snikpoh

-- snikpoh (snikpoh@ecentral.com), January 16, 2000.

Go see the movie MAGNOLIA. Watch the weather forecast in it, then the weather. Especially the final forecast...and the final actual weather.

Most potent message I've ever seen in any movie.

-- Joseph Almond (sa2000@webtv.net), January 16, 2000.

I have downgraded from an "8.5+++++" to an 8.5.

I am also giving things until 07-01-2000. I heavily prepped, I chose my course, what reason to change in midstream? I never expected to hear much official information admitting Y2K errors. I'm on record here in several places as stating that we may NEVER "know" what happened, on way or another.

For anyone interested, please read a book titled, "The Future in Plain Sight". Some interesting scenarios of why a prepared position is a good idea at all time.

We have always and will always live in a fragile world, subject to the whims of the fates.

-- mushroom (mushroom_at_bs_too_long@yahoo.com), January 16, 2000.

I would rate Y2K as a goose egg, as in zero, as in "0", for all intents and purposes. There is no doubt that there will be problems ahead, but my belief is that they will be managed just like the ones that have occurred to date -- fast fixes, workarounds, etc.

I am glad that I personally prepared for things to be much worse (and expect to have a miniscule grocery bill for some time to come), and believe that it was the prudent course of action given the uncertainty of Y2K. But, as per the saying, "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst", the fact is that the "the best" is what has happened.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), January 16, 2000.

Hi, Zoobie.

I agree that the direst threat has past. And because of our extensive preps for that worst-case scenario, I feel relatively complacent about our ability to weather lesser disruptions. What? Depression? Is that all you got? Well, bring it on, Bubba, we're depression-proof around here.

As we discussed many times, y2k is only one factor in a complex, poorly understood feedback loop, and still has the potential to cause trouble and exasterbate other problems.

Time is now our friend, rather than our enemy. Now we have the luxury of time to adapt and to deal with the problems as they crop up.

The score early in the first quarter: Humans: 1 Computers: 0

Godspeed

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), January 16, 2000.

There are THOUSANDS of doomers--always will be.

The cleverer among them are rapidly segueing into scenarios not directly related to Y2K-computer-date issues, as they are figuring out that was a bust. Instead they are pretending that the WHOLE point is being prepared in general, and that any worldwide downturn of any kind over the next year or two somehow makes the REASON they were prepared legitimate.

It's really two different issues:

Will there be doom? (Always possible)

Will doom be from Y2K-related computer glitches. (Alas; no)

-- I'mSo (happy@prepped.com), January 16, 2000.

Dear I'mSo,

It must be great to be you. With no vision, depth or wisdom, life is pretty easy and the answers come quick.

My hat's off to you buddy.

-- Mabel Dodge (cynical@me.now), January 16, 2000.

zoobie, I'll always be a doomer until the day I'm extinct!

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 16, 2000.

TEOTWAWKI-yes-but due to nuke war not y2k......

-- skunk (hitsfromthe@bong.com), January 16, 2000.

If it keeps me up at night, I do something about it.

to each his own

store what you eat, eat what you store

-- plonk! (realaddress@hotmail.com), January 16, 2000.