Question: Is this the calm before the storm or the calm after the storm? : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

The title is a summation of the two sides of the question as it appears on this forum. What is your opinion and why? I realize that most of those who feel that it is the calm after the storm have left.

Some still remain. I could find no verifiable evidence of failure in December. I still have found none. Just theories. Lets get some hard evidence. [Flint is gone and someone has to do this; it is a terrible task].

Best wishes,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (, January 15, 2000


I think that it is the rainbow after a summer rain that barely wet the windshield. Problems have and will continue to occur, but nothing of any great shakes, as the past 15 days have well verified.

Don't get me wrong, anyone who researched Y2K certainly should be left with a great sense of uneasiness about a lot of things. The convoluted power grid, the stock market bubble and ever growing mania, the fractional reserve banking system, etc. But Y2K the computer glitch has proven itself to be all bark and no bite in the day-to-day world that we live in.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), January 15, 2000.

This is the calm and the joy that any young woman feels seconds after becoming pregnant. Only weeks and months later will she find out what getting pregnant is all about.

Take care

-- George (, January 15, 2000.

As Keeper of the King's freeze-dried mud and French mineral water stash, I do not plan to donate it any time soon. I am not as eloquent as His Majesty, above, therefore can only humbly chant once more, "It's not just Y2K."

-- Old Git (, January 15, 2000.


-- Hokie (, January 15, 2000.


You are even more cryptic than I am.

Best wishes,,,


-- Z1X4Y7 (, January 15, 2000.

I have free rein to play Flint on the internet? [I couldn't do him justice if I tried.]

I'd have to agree with KOS [which would be the first time he and I have agreed about ANYTHING on this forum.] I agree with him in that there WAS no storm. There certainly were glitches, and folks were inconvenienced by these glitches. There will continue to be inconveniences, but they will be manageable.

Why do I feel this way? Well, I've been in IT for 30 years as both a software programmer/analyst and systems programmer. [I started when I was 10 years old, for those of you doing the age calculations.]

My systems' programming experience was at an oil refinery. I spent 7 years there listening to the alarm bells go off at least once/week. In total, 19 of those 30 years were spent in the Oil Industry. The other 11 years were spent as a contractor, working at various private firms throughout the mainframe world.

I've discussed my views on Y2k previously on this forum, how mainframe code was tested from here to there and back again either on time machines or on regions/partitions where the date had been changed to indicate the Year 2000. I was told that these tests were useless because only reality would indicate the results. Anyone remember "It's not the Year 2000 yet?", or "It's 1999, and it's called the Y2k problem for a reason?" Sysman [bless his aching ribs] said that the CURRENT-DATE would be the problem. I think it was BW who said that indexes would get screwed, resulting in cascading data failures. Cory is fond of bringing up the last-minute changes to the operating systems.

I won't deny that ANY of the above-mentioned problems COULD occur in shops where incompetent programmers abounded. However, I've not worked at ONE shop that had such incompetence. EDS already experienced the tape scratch problem at the end of 1998. It didn't affect their systems at all. A scratch tape is not devoid of previous information until it's been overlaid, and someone NOTICED that too many scratch tapes had miraculously appeared.

Gordon (at least ONE of the Gordon's on this forum) is fond of stating that the flu will affect fixes. As I stated on another thread, many mainframe folks are out of work right now and have already had the flu. [no solicitation intended for recruiters.]

Sure...SOME firms will be swallowed by others that did the job better. This is the way it has always been. This provides no solace to those who have lost their job, but folks have lost their jobs for company incompetence in OTHER areas. Why should Y2k be any different?

-- Anita (, January 15, 2000.

Probably 'after'. But Old Git is right-- it *isn't* just y2k qua y2k.

Y2k Pro, what a brilliant strategy you've devised. Wish I was that smart.

-- silver ion (, January 15, 2000.


This is the calm BEFORE the storm.

-- dinosaur (, January 15, 2000.

Hey Anita, glad you're still here. :] Very nice post you've got there.

-- silver ion (, January 15, 2000.


There was a post on North's in November from a woman who had worked in oil for 30 years, still there. She was not as nonchalant as you. The one part I remember was that she said that our refineries are all old and have been bandaged many times to meet EPA requirements without doing proper documentation; thus remediation is close to impossible. She also said that offshore rigs could take 6 - 7 dives to replace embeddeds at a cost of $500,000 each.

Paula Gordon said the other day that embeddeds have buffers which store unrecognized commands enabling them to run until the buffer is full which could take several weeks or longer. We haven't reached the failure point yet Its too soon to say NOT A PROBLEM.

-- John Littmann (LITTMANNJ@AOL.COM), January 15, 2000.

It's too soon to know. People try to draw conclusions based on their own personal experience, news articles, and what they read on this and other forums. We've waited a long time and we can wait 2 or 3 more months until the evidence starts to come it. In my opinion, the evidence will be earnings warnings due to operational and computer problems. I still believe the range could be anywhere between a 2 and an 8.

-- Dave (, January 15, 2000.

George: This is the fear and the agony when a man discovers he is to become a father. Only 9 months later, will he feel the pain in his pocket book for the next 18 years, and then he will understand what keeping his pecker in his pants is all about.

-- tah tah (tahtah@tahtahhh.xcom), January 15, 2000.

Mr. Littman:

Z solicited opinions and I offered mine. I'm not going to engage in any "but THEY said" arguments.

-- Anita (, January 15, 2000.

For programmers dealing with large systems/vendors/companies that pass data back and forth amongst multiple points, it could be the calm before the storm if everyone hasn't done their job. For some, the clouds may have already started to move in, and the rain has begun to fall...doesn't mean the worst is over, though.

If you have multiple batch jobs running over a period of time and don't know the steps/sequence as to when they ran, tracing the cause of the data corruption can be a pain if...

-you have no documentation
-sloppy logging mechanisms
-no source code, just binary code
-inexperienced staff that doesn't know the big picture, how everything interacts and functions

As to whether this storm will reach the public remains to be seen.

If the causes of the errors are easily traced and can be quickly fixed, it may not be much of a storm as far as the public is concerned.

Just like the weather, there are many variables involved, and it is hard to predict, even with state of the art computer modeling...but the possibility of storms exists. To me, when the weatherman sez there's a 30% chance of rain, I take my umbrella, just in case. Of course, like the weather forecasters, some predictions are totally off...I've seen it where they predict snow, and it's sunny and warm ;-)

We are only human, and we are not perfect in spite of all our technological advances and achievements. Since humans have designed and implemented this technology, the technology is flawed in itself. Knowing this, the folks who designed these systems put mechanisms and procedures in place for fault tolerance. Let's hope everyone's been on the "up and up" regarding their reports, and that anomalies stay to a minimum, within the fault tolerance standards.

Okay, that's my Flint impersonation for the evening. I can also do a mean Beetlejuice, Yogi Bear, Ren and Stimpy, Mr. Cogswell, and Uniblab...fooled the telemarketers a couple of times answering as Billy Crystal ("You look maaahvaaahlous") and Steve Martin ("I'm a wild and crazy guy").... :-)

-- Tim (, January 15, 2000.

KOS, I thought you were a little more pragmatic. Some things take time to unfold. The price of oil reached a 9 year high, the highest since the Gulf War crisis, why? Because OPEC decided to extend their production quotas? Wouldn't that mean that oil would stay the same price it has been instead of reaching a new high.

I am thoroughly convinced that most Y2K problems are kept under wraps until they can be circumvented or fixed so as not to cause panic to the price of their stock or to the consumer. There has never been more spin generated on any topic in history, simply to prevent panic. There isn't a corporation in America that is going to openly admit that they have problems due to Y2K unless they have to in order to satisfy SEC requirements or to prevent being sued by stockholders. What about the words from Downstreamer and RC. The oil industry couldn't be more tight lipped and yet we have refineries dropping like flies all due to "normal maintenance" and other bullshit stories. The insiders that know what's going on are going to make a killing but you and I will never hear about it except at the gas pump.

-- Guy Daley (, January 15, 2000.


You can play Al-D [remember him] on the net if you want to. Remember that Flint said that a lot of the time he argued from logic but not from knowledge [and he learned from the answers]. He really had problems with the salmon issue [this is a joke between Flint and me; only the old timers will get it].

Best wishes,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (, January 15, 2000.

after, After, AFter, AFTer, AFTEr, AFTER, it is after the storm!!!

And If you do not belive me, Why I will just repost this ad infinitum.

;) (lighten up, it is a joke)

-- WhyTwoKay Pro (, January 15, 2000.


How could anyone forget al-D? [, I believe.] To be honest, I really haven't followed the Y2k aftermath very well on this forum or others. It was over for me when the power stayed on. There are those days, however, when the task of cleaning the PC room result in the PC being USED rather than cleaned. Today is one of those days.

-- Anita (, January 15, 2000.

My opinion(that and .50 will get you a cup of coffee) is based on a gut feeling. I think the y2k glitches will continue to annoy. I feel like something ominous this way comes. I have never had this kind of feeling before, I am a fairly mainstream Christian professional who ignores people that voice feelings like this as "kooks". Until the past year. I hope to be wrong and have long range plans made that don't include diaster.

-- morgan (, January 15, 2000.

Anita, that exactly what you said over at Debunkers today!

-- ~~~ (~~~@~~~.xcom), January 15, 2000.

Anita:; I think that is correct. Do you remember all of the space taken-up discussing his legal problems.I wasn't part of the discussion; those were my reading days.

Best wishes,,,


-- Z1X4Y7 (, January 15, 2000.

I agree (loved the clever comment about KOS's mineral water and dirt stash, Old Git). If you subscribe that Y2K touches a lot of areas and isn't just narrowed to 2 or for digits, I think the jury is out (probably buying rice and beans).

I still check this forum every day for updates on things that often do not show in the typical newspaper. I see a growing list of glitches that have not even accounted for the first end of the month or end of the quarter reconcilliation. Oil is on its way up, the market volatility is astounding.

I just posted information I received this week from an investment advice letter.

Since I turned out to be allergic to beans of all kinds, those dried and canned supplies are being donated to a food bank and/or swapped for other stuff with my kids, but I do not plan to devour many of my preps any time soon.

This forum continues to be an invaluable source of information, LOL humor, clever remarks, and occasional stuff that makes me nuts. Thanks, all.

-- Nancy (, January 15, 2000.

I think it's the clam before the storm ... shut up tight, waiting.

-- Steve Heller (, January 15, 2000.

Yup. The Clam before the Storm. Love them typos.


-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.tree), January 15, 2000.

Working for one of the Fortune 50 companies, I can only go by what I see. Y2K will be sand in the gears, not a wrench. I do think earning for many companies will be impacted, Y2K problems or the cost of remediation. This loss of earnings or productivity will help correct the DOW. I do believe the DOW will continue up long term due to the demographics of the population. Older people save/invest more. In about ten years, the population will be short young people and then the economy will decline.

-- Surrounded (, January 16, 2000.

Just an add-on. Company wide, we bought about 43,000 new PC's plus software in the last two years. We will not be tossing them anytime in next 3 years. Assuming we were not the only Fortune XX company to do this, what would happen to Dell earnings if this is repeated by 20 companies? Time to short Dell? Time for a technology sector correction? I think the NASD is ready to pop, but the DOW will hold above 9k due to flight of capital to blue chips. IMHO:)

-- Surrounded (, January 16, 2000.

Ditto on it's not just Y2K. It's the disintegration of government for a lack of interest. It's poor workmanship because we have too much business to make any one job perfect or near-perfect. It's the broad acceptance of immorality despite a direct relationship to civilization failure. It's New Age Religion and Old World Politics with a baby called "technology" which noone can understand or control. We are in the midst of an alpha and an omega of conciousness.

-- Okie Dan (, January 16, 2000.

Y2K seems to have fizzled. The problems are being fixed and we are getting by "on the fly." The real storm will come when a confluence of trends will converge around the year 2010, blowing up in our face.

These trends are:

1) an increased propensity for the US to stick its nose in other countries' business, often blowing them up

2) a tendency for Russia and China to be legitimately bothered by (1), where there are already severe economic stresses punishing these states and a history of brutal authoritarian rule--which would seek any and all opportunity to find a scapegoat in the US for their internal problems

3) a complete loss of privacy in the US and a gradual decay of the authority of the Bill of Rights there

4) rapid technological advancement, including and especially in the areas of biotechnology and possible bioweapons

5) around 2010, the Baby Boomers will begin to retire in masse; they will shift vast amounts of wealth from the stock market into savings accounts. This will cause a huge bear market and possibly economic depression. Also, there willl be widespread disenchantment from skyrocketing social security taxes.

6) a gradual decline in oil production in easily-accessible areas. An oil boom in the Caspian Sea region.

7) Global warming--whether caused by human activity, solar fluctuations, or both--will be quite obvious and the sea level rise will need to be countervailed by huge investments in levies and dikes.

Because of these issues, I predict that 2010-2020 will be one of the biggest global crises ever faced by the human race. During that time, there will be a 50% chance of:

1) Terrorist attack of a bioweapon on US soil, where

2) US government becomes far more authoritarian such that few people believe it's a "free country."

3) World War III breaks out over a series of miscommunications and blunders after a long arms race during the 2000-2010 decade. It's with Russia re: the Caspian Oil area or China over Taiwan. It does not last long, and a ceasefire is signed before the annihilation is total for any of the participants. Nevertheless, nuclear weapons are used in limited numbers, wiping out our soldiers on the battlefield. Our strategic "loss" of WWIII, mass starvation from contaminated Midwest wheat fields, and economic depression is bad for morale, and this triggers the collapse of the authority of the Federal Govt.

4) States secede and then rejoin into smaller confederations after small civil wars against Washington.

5) The weakened former US gradually becomes the subjects of a quasi- global government (2020-2040), which, in turn, is basically the puppet of huge mega-corporations. These corporations literally perfect the art of mass mind control and public manipulation through secretly engineered and inoculated neurotropic viruses and via _1984_ - style Techno-fascism.

6) By 2040, the first space colonies are established on the Moon and in several asteroids. These are populated by religious and political dissidents who consider themselves to be the last and only free humans anywhere.

-- nowhereman (, January 16, 2000.


I am so thankful that the world was spared an overnight collapse on January 1. Whether or not this will be a year of calamity is uncertain at this point, but I'm taking every advantage of the can-can sales (now going into the third week--they used to run just one week). Some of the prices are unbelievable, I think the grocery stores probably overstocked.

I couldn't resist comparing your remark to the Bible verse describing the day of the Lord coming as a thief in the night.

1 Thessalonians 5:3 For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

This is a great forum, and I've appreciated all of the intelligent and witty posts.

-- Mary (, January 16, 2000.

6) By 2040, the first space colonies are established on the Moon and in several asteroids. These are populated by religious and political dissidents who consider themselves to be the last and only free humans anywhere.

If they'll take 90 year olds, I'll sign up. Of course, I'll have to clear it with Susan first!

-- Steve Heller (, January 16, 2000.

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