Hey Andy, I thought you might be interested in this post from APH

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Date: Fri Jan 14 2000 22:53 APH (Trading - Dream Top) ID#7223: Next week Puetz's dream top may come true. Finally things are coming together to the point where a significant top is at hand. I doubt if its going to be as disastrous as Puetz thinks, but its going to dirty a lot of pants bottoms. The mar snp should top at about 1495, if cash snp trades much above 1490 I maybe wrong, short the snp on any higher prices from todays close, use a stop somewhere above 1495 mar,

-- flierdude (flierdude@netscape.net), January 15, 2000

Answers

SnP, sure, if you're a thinking-man . . . but the NASDAQ's a no-brainer 3K by March 31.

-- Think It (Through@Pollies.Duh), January 15, 2000.

Hey thanks Flierdude,

I have a lot of respect for APH - he's usually right on the money - I am all tied up now in oil futures and of course gold and silver.

What with the Commeau and Tie Walker predictions, and my own gut feeling about the market and rampant inflation, with a y2k effect kicking in (embeddeds and JIT supply chain problems) - I think we will see some action...

TPTB with their bloody PPT will try and keep the bubble floating until after the elections but I'm not so sure they can do it this time... I'm sure the Japs are waiting to stick it to the Yanks, they have been suffering big time for 11 years...

Take a read of this very astute post from noula on GE

======================================================================

Table is now set

(noula) Jan 14, 13:05

Looks like our table is now set:

- Chinese legalize public gold purchases, state owned coprporations can now liquidate the country's large holdings of $US through the smokescreen of "consumer demand"

- EU CB's to move gold thro BIS thus avoiding LMBA and NY markets and a cessation of leasing to LMBA-NY bullion banks

- Barrick reconsiders hedge program

- gold production falling which may accelerate due to Y2K problems

- Fed increases money supply by 70% annualized rate in Q4 1999

- Open interest on NY COMEX continues to collapse signalling extreme illiquidity in the PM markets

- Feds have losing ability to influence commodity markets as supplies dwindle to critical levels - the manipulation game is up

- Y2k hitting US oil production in a big way

- KGB takes over Russia, has its organized crime network thoroughly infiltrated in the west

- Chechnyia war signals Russia's intent to control Euraisan oil supply

- Continued Arab oil supply to the west contingent upon Israel relinquishing lands taken from Syria and Lebanon, a cessation of hostilities towards the Lebanese civilian population, a fair settlement of the Israeli induced displacement of the Palestinian population since 1947 and free access for Muslims to the Mosque of Omar in Jerusalem (folks this means war)

Next week should begin the next great leg in the gold bull market. CRB could reach 230 within 3 weeks. Hold onto your hat! ======================================================================

Also - this one...

Oil and the U.S Dolllar

(nasdaqbubble) Jan 15, 00:43

The United States is the largest importer of oil. The effects of higher oil are readily apparent to the u.s dollar when one takes into account the "current account".

It's time to go to the "DID YOU KNOW SEGMENT" OF THE SHOW.

An oil price that returns to levels seen on an inflation-adjusted basis back in the early 80's, would have the effect of adding about 155 billion to the current account.

Present oil prices knock the current account for a hit of around 50 billion.

THE DOLLAR HAS TO DECLINE AS OUR INVESTMENT INCOME SLIDES FURTHER INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY. A TRADE SURPLUS IS NEEDED TO COVER THE DEFICIT OF PAYMENTS BUT HIGHER OIL WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF WIDENING THE TRADE DEFICIT.

QUESTION- HOW CAN THE DOLLAR MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT LEADERSHIP STATUS WITH FUNDAMENTALS CLEARLY DETIORATING AS WE SPEAK?

GREENSPAN, IGOT TWO WORDS FOR YOU- GOOD LUCK

GOLD BUGS- HIGHER OIL WILL EVENTUALLY KNOCK THE DOLLAR OF ITS MIGHTY THROWN. A WEAK DOLLAR WILL ALLOW THE GOLD BULL TO START ITS LONG JOURNEY TO FOUR FIGURE LAND. ======================================================================

I think we are moving into some uncharted waters here :o)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 15, 2000.


Andy,

I have not saw APH call one like this ever. I have followed his advice before and got stung. Generally he's on the money as he his a professional trader. Heres another interesting post from last night on Kitco.

Date: Fri Jan 14 2000 19:18 permabear (It will all go to hell in a day) ID#170184: Copyright ) 1999 permabear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved All the financial power at the disposal of the establishment is being thrown at gold and commodity related investments while easy money policy and incredible advertising and media coverage supports the overvalued equity markets. Think FOR JUST ONE MINUTE how amazing it is that gold has not crashed to $200 with all the weight of the establishment that is being hurled against it!

The analogy that comes to mind is a huge flood crest that is being artifically held within bank by sandbagging and dike topping. The flood effort looks great until ONE dike is breached. Once that happens it's all over folks. Because everything is and has been thrown at this particular "war on gold" everything will go up in smoke in a matter of hours once speculators realize the establishment has lost the war due to gathering fundamentals.

Chucking your gold and silver investments because stocks are going up and gold and silver are steady is tantamout to cancelling your flood insurance just as the crest is passing through your town. Behavior like that, for lack of a better word is stupid.

-- flierdude (2131@5352.com), January 15, 2000.


Hey guys, I can't find any supporting details on "gold production falling which may accelerate due to Y2K problems".

Does anyone have the scoop?

Has Y2K impacted the mines in S. Africa? I seem to recall early January report of problems in S. Africa but cant find any links.

Thanks.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 15, 2000.


Or is the Y2K scenario a result of the FED's cash infusion of liquidity which causes gold to rise in value and squeeze the gold shorts. Causing a rush to cover and further increases in gold price.

Reminds of 1980 when gold spiked to $800/oz.

I need more info on Y2K impacting gold production. If gold production is impacted when demand is increasing this could blow past 1980!

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 15, 2000.



Bill,

I haven't seen any evidence that would suggest Y2K impacts on mining operations. Probably the biggest impact in the last week that will effect gold prices is the Chinese allowing public purchase of Gold.

-- flierdude (423413@63463.8726), January 15, 2000.


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