Just hung up the phone with my cousin. Him and John Templeton are extremely good friends. Briefly, John just told him very recently the world is not going to be the same in a few years. Speculation has run it's course and the Fed is going to put the brakes on. We are living way beyond our means and a huge contraction in the economy is just waiting in the wings. He says the train just fell off the track. But, 10 years down the road he says we will be back to increasingly better times. The number one thing he says is get out of debt now.

-- JACOB (jacob@yahoo.com), January 13, 2000

Answers

Sage advice at all times!!!

-- Jay Urban (Jayho99@aol.com), January 13, 2000.

John Templeton, do you copy?

-- (herestalkin@ya.siily), January 13, 2000.

Who is your cousin and in what capacity does he know John? Is he in the investment business? I am not mocking you. I want to beleive you. I admire Mr. Templeton quite a bit and saw him on PBS the other night talking about the speculative bubble and the mania that exists here today. He also mentioned DOW 1,000,000 by the end of this century. He explained the expansion that could resume in the next hundred years or so, so I believe what you say about the ten year time span for economic recovery. Get back to me...

-- el snipor (faraway@distantland.net), January 13, 2000.

Who knows how many more magic rabbits can be pulled out of the trick hat? The Prosperity Bunnies and Computer Problem Vanishing acts have been putting on a pretty good show ... :-)

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), January 13, 2000.

"His view of the US in particular, and the world's stock market in general was that it should be avoided the most of any time in his investing life-time (that covers a lot of market history.) The symbolism came from Ruykeyser's obvious covering for poor old Mr. Templeton's bearishness by explaining that he had been bearish on US stocks in the last two January's interviews-Obviously wrong, right? Yeah, wrong like he was on Japanese stocks in 1988, and 1989 while they continued to skyrocket. Mr. Templeton is one of my heroes, and his wisdom at valuation of the world's markets has withstood so many decades that we believe this interview is almost exactly like the ones he was giving in 1990 about the Japanese stock market. " http://www.fiendbear.com/guestpg3.htm

-- BuyTheDips (pop@goes.theBubble), January 13, 2000.

Why don't you get a life and realize that you were DUPED and nothing was ever going to happen, nothing IS happening so quit looking for disasters. They aren't going to rescue you from the reality you desperately want to escape. Let me repeat. No disasters. No world ending. No nothing. Just plain old boring life AS IS. Get over it. Use your time and energy to make the world a better place by volunteering and helping people out. Give your life meaning rather than the meaning of staring into a computer screen hoping for a disaster.

-- Reality (Reality@check.com), January 13, 2000.

Reality:

Who could argue with an 'analysis' as 'cogent' as yours?

-- Boy Wonder (robin@the.cave), January 13, 2000.

Reality, what good advice, hope you take it.

-- ticker tape (up@and.down), January 13, 2000.

I'm going to have to agree with Reality on this one. We've got some professors (Dr. Ravi Batra), who has written several doomsday depression books and the event hasn't happened yet. Search the web for books that have been written in the past 30 years on the coming depression that never happened. Another author was Howard Ruff, Gary North's old side kick, they got wealthy off of writing books and scaring the crap out of people 25 years ago! While some of the advice in the books are good, their predictions failed miserably.

-- Rasty (Rasty@bulldoggg.xcom), January 13, 2000.

Rasty:

Why is it you discredit the message when the messanger is wrong? This does not mean COMPLETELY WRONG, merely wrong in timing...

Have you learned nothing from Y2K? It was a massive object lesson in your vulnerability to the vagaries of nature, history and current events around the world.

So the timing is wrong--but this does not mean you shouldn't take the point of the message to heart. American military intelligence manuals (try Intel. Prep for the Battlefield) mention a little phrase called COMMANDER'S INTENT.

Though details might be hazy, missing, or undecipherable, if the soldier understands the commander's intent, he can carry out the mission to the best of his reason and judgement.

Are you learning yet?

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 13, 2000.

Thanks for the advice! I'll use my next paycheck to clear the outstanding 19 years of my mortgage!

After that, I think I'll run in circles, screaming and panicking, and live the rest of my life in constant, shivering fear.

Or perhaps not.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 13, 2000.

A market crash seems to be just as likely as a market boom at this point. If you want to play, put your money in, pull the lever and take your chances.

-- 777 (@ .), January 13, 2000.

There's a big difference between a Great Depression and the existence of a Bear Market and a recession :-)

Just as there's a big difference between TEOTWAWKI and the odd pension check showing up late.

However, no doubt, when (inevitably) there is a Bear Market and a recession, the people running around forecasting a Great Depression will be filled with unmitigated glee and brag about what geniuses they are :-)

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 13, 2000.

No real problems with the stock market until boomers start retireing. Then can not be too bad as they gotta put the money somewhere. Just stop and consider the number of people participating in 401(k) or other retirement investment programs now (not quite like 1929).

-- Larry Dreadon (larrydd@worldnet.att.net), January 13, 2000.

Hi people,

Expert forecasts great depression, you say? Experts also forecast TEOTWAWKI. Are you all gonna wake up one of these days? Couldn't get a computer crash, so now you're hoping the stock market will.

hahaha hahaha hahaha Where do you people come from?

-- (RichFrom@stocks.com), January 13, 2000.

Kurt, yes I learned something from Y2K, I learned not to buy into scenarios from people who are selling goods and products for their own financial gain. I learned not to listen and take action just because some "expert," sees doom and gloom down the road. These are different times than in 1929 and the "experts" that are trying to time the market are merely speculating. The don't know any more than you or I which way the market will swing now or in the future. There's a zillions threads on TB2000 beginning in December 1997, to the present moment prediciting doom and gloom, and here we are today merrily rolling along. Yeh, I learned alot.

-- Rasty (Rasty@bulldoggg.xcom), January 13, 2000.

Why is it you discredit the message when the messanger is wrong? This does not mean COMPLETELY WRONG, merely wrong in timing...

ummm....I know a guy (real story)....Canadian Stock Broker...Millionare...Early 90's his conscience wouldn't let him advise his clients to purchase stocks any longer. Things were booming, but he "saw" the crash coming.

Turned out that he went broke...actually saw his stuff dumped out on the front lawn in Montreal when they foreclosed on his house. (almost paid for BTW)

Hint: when you're going down the tubes, what does it MATTER what may or may NOT be around the corner?

Self fulfilling prophecies abound.

I predict - the sun will come up tommorow.

All the rest are mehbe's. Mehbe it will - mehbe it won't.

...and my favorite quote for the new millenium is:

""A watchdog that barks at everything that comes along is no longer a watchdog, it's a nuisance."

It may come, but who's gonna listen to that barking dog anymore?

-- farf (madeupguy@hotmail.com), January 13, 2000.

Investment manias have a way of going further than seems rational. It happened in 1929 in the US and 1989 in Japan. People who were warning about the market overvaluation were ridiculed, just as thy are today. The only thing we can be certain of is that the market is more overvalued today than at any time in US history.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), January 13, 2000.

American/foreign investors and private citizens don't think the stock market is over-valued. Investors keep buying and selling, private citizens keep pouring money into their 401k plans, the mutual fund managers keep shuffling and trading. Where's the threat, where's the mass exit out of the market? Unemployment is at an all time low, and people are spending money rolling the economy along. I see new cars on the highways, and building contractors can't keep with the demand for housing. What bubble is going to burst?

-- Rasty (Rasty@bulldoggg.xcom), January 13, 2000.

"The number one thing he says is get out of debt now."

I don't understand that logic at all. If I knew for certain we were going into a depression I would borrow as much as I could, because once we are in a depression most lenders would be willing to accept about 10 cents on the dollar as repayment, and I could keep the rest.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), January 13, 2000.

My God, some of you people sound like Klinton Klones! Remember when they said that they have solved the mystery of the up-down business cycle and they found the recipe for eternal prosperity? Let's take a long hard look at reality here. Two-thirds of our economy is fueled by consumerism. People buy stuff, the economy hums along. People don't buy so much stuff and actually start saving, then uh-oh, the economy slows down. People really begin to tighten their purse string, then watch out below!

Consumerism is dependent on the mental state of the consumer. If you feel there is economic trouble ahead, you don't buy that new car or buy a cheaper one, or even a used one. Why do you think the media did all they could to calm the fears of American prior to Y2K? During the national media's Year 2000 celebrations, they reported "no problems" worldwide. Those who cared to investigate found that to not be the case. Do you really think that CBS would interrupt the televising of the Times Square celebration to begin to list the Y2K failures that were occuring? I DON'T THINK SO.

The economy is all emotionally driven right now. We, the consumer, are puppets. Each Christmas the commercials advertise the latest fad for children and the stupid parents line up at 4am to be the first ones in the store to buy it.

The buying will stop when credit is tightened. Most people I know have large credit card debts due to buying things they couldn't live without. The piper will be paid one day. I'm not a doomer but refuse to be caught off-guard.

Nuff said.

-- I AM (Trying@2B.Reasonable), January 14, 2000.

Reality,Pull your head out of your ass! Africa---Aids ridden and no cure in sight, Millions of orphans---Outbreaks of ebola and marberg that threaten to go pandemic. Europe--genocidal wars and murder--Eastern Europe,War and genocide and economic collapseW/exessive saber rattleling. Asia bursting at the seams,China engaged in massive military buildup(appearantly aided by fund seeking American politico's). Japan rearming to counter threats from a belligerant and starving N.Korea SE Asia,racked by Aids and starvation and religious warfare. Incurable TB and malaria growing on All fronts, 2/3 of the worlds population going to bed hungry nightly. the green revolution an abyssmal failure. S.America increasing populations and starvation. Global warming and rampant distruction of rainforest worldwide causing desertification on a massive scale. Polar icecaps melting at an enormous rate. Oxygen producing plankton in the oceans of the world dieing at a frightening rate. Coral reefs disappearing world wide. Sheep in S.Chile going blind from ultra violet radiation. All governments tending to police statism. And Wealth being consentrated in fewer hands. Finate resourses used and depleated at a geometric rate-----And you dumb shits expect the boom to go on forever. Give me a reality break Reality!

-- H fats Kissinger (draconionsolutions@uselesseaters.com), January 14, 2000.

I dont think getting out of debt is a bad idea. I have been given much needed food for thought. We have lived in 'plenty' we ALL have and are guilty of the 'buy me , give me, get me's ' example, I was in Walmart the other day and was amazed at the folks simply wandering around searching for 'things' to buy. I myself am guilty of doing the same thing. Thanks for the reminder.

-- consumer (shh@aol.com), January 14, 2000.

consumer:

We need to prep for more essentials. Don't be ashamed when you use your common sense to prepare for your loved ones. 8^)

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 14, 2000.

For the record... my head never was and never will be in my ass.. . a physical impossibility. Rasty-thanks for the support. I completely agree with your lessons that you learned. I learned the same ones from Y2K.

Kissinger: The same world-wide disasters have been going on since people have roamed the earth. It isn't anything new. It won't culminate in a world-wide disaster where all life as we know it is gone. If you think it will, you are probably IQ challenged. MY MESSAGE IS SIMPLE: Go out there and enjoy life LIVING it instead of standing around wringing your hands waiting for the next supposed disaster. It is ludicrous to continue talking about an impending depression, global war, disease, famine, etc. because the problems that occur today have been occurring since the history of humans. So take a deep breath and quit listening to this person predicted this and this person predicted that. I'm sick of all these hollow predictions. Get OVER IT and GET ON WITH LIFE!!

-- Reality (Reality@check.com), January 15, 2000.