My Geopolitical Post No. 1greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Good Evening All!It occurred to me that I ought to be of some use to you all, and I have a background in the military sciences and an interest in security for my family...SOOOOOOO...
GEOPOLITICAL POST NO. 1: http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/gui2000/2000.asp
[start snip] 2000 Annual Forecast GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
The Year of Eurasia January 10, 2000
We had called 1999 A New and Dangerous World." The year 2000 will be the year in which the world gets down to the business of creating the new epoch in world affairs: the serious business of great powers and their conflicts and alliances. The world will be in the process of defining the constellation of relationships that will characterize the coming generation. At the center of that process are the two great question marks: Russia and China. In our view, these two countries will not only be at the center of attention in the next year, but will be the keys to the operation of the global system.
Russia and China together constitute the geographic and demographic center of gravity of the Eastern Hemisphere. How they behave is one of the engines driving the history of any epoch. When Moscow and Beijing rule unified empires and ally with each other, as they did in the 1950s, they create an enormous mass around which the rest of Europe and Asia fearfully revolve. When they are united but hostile to each other, as they were in the 1970s and 1980s, they neutralize each other, creating opportunities for other powers. And if they were to collapse into simultaneous chaos, they would create a massive vacuum that would suck in the rest of the world in conflict and cause a feeding frenzy.
Usually, the reality of Eurasias heartland is fairly well defined and stable. The year 2000 marks one of those rare moments where nothing can be taken for granted. Both Russia and China are, in our view, in the process of redefining themselves and their relationship with each other and the rest of the world. Nothing in 2000 will be more important than how these two countries define themselves. In a very real sense, what happens there defines what will happen elsewhere.... [end snip]
This article continued on in some detail, with a bit of educated prognostication. I've been watching these guys for some time and, though unwilling to take their word for anything, take their posts under consideration.
-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 13, 2000
Heya Kurt. More grist for the mill, a Virginia Taxpayer's Association prognostication for my state and US. Very "conspiracy", but interesting none-the-less:http://www.reagan.com/HotTopics.main/HotMike/document-1.11.2000.5.html
US and Virginia Constitutions Being Destroyed by UN
Va. Taxpayers: Taxpayers Must Urge State to Stop UN Power Grabs VIRGINIA TAXPAYERS ASSOCIATION P. O. BOX 663 LYNCHBURG, VA 24505
- 25 years in the cause of freedom -
FROM: Kenneth White, President Tel./FAX No.: 804 277-5255 E-mail:
The Virginia Taxpayers Association said today that "only General Assembly action can compel Congress to stop dictatorial United Nations moves that are destroying U. S. and Virginia constitutions as well as laws which protect our rights."
The state taxpayer organization cited several recent UN developments that have rung U. S. alarm bells:
"(1) an international criminal court claiming jurisdiction over U. S. citizens even if the Senate does not ratify its establishment; (2) progressive confiscation of Americans' guns as a result of the UN Arms Control and Disarmament Treaty;
(3) threatened reduction of daily fuel availabililty under the UN Kyoto 'global warming' treaty which President Clinton is defiantly implementing in spite of Senate refusal to ratify it;
(4) a top UN human rights official asking the U. S. to justify Mexican border immigration policies necessitated by the Constitution;
(5) use of the unrepresentative World Trade Organization as an enforcement arm of the UN in matters related to environment and minimal labor standards as well as trade;
(6) Clinton's UN-inspired action in the George Washington National Forest Oct. 12 blocking road building on 437,000 acres of forest land in Virginia without consent of Congress or the General Assembly;
(7) UN prevention of a productive and environmentally-sensitive gold mining operation on private land some distance outside UNESCO 'World Heritage' site Yellowstone National Park;
(8) growing UN influence over civilian police training, mixed with military training in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act; and
(9) breaking down family relationships by UN 'Rights of the Child' provisions giving children preference over their parents."
The VTA, in a statement approved Saturday Jan. 8 in Charlottesville, said "We believe General Assembly members, as well as most members of Congress, have not been made aware that next September the UN will convene a Millenium Assembly to launch a new system of 'global governance' that would in effect dissolve the United States of America and meaningful state government.
"A new 'Charter for Global Democracy', already signed by influential leaders in 56 nations, will be presented for implementation, substantially abolishing individual freedom. Informed citizens know our present Congress cannot be expected to do anything effective to block such tyranny without strong state action.
"The charter calls for consolidation of all international agencies under direct authority of the UN, and regulation by the UN of all transnational corporations and financial institutions, requiring an 'international code of conduct' concerning the environment and labor standards.
"There will be an independent source of revenue for the UN, such as the 'Tobin tax' and taxes on aircraft and shipping fuels.
"The U. S. will lose permanent member status on the Security Council and any UN veto power.
"There will be a standing UN army and required individual and national compliance with all UN 'Human Rights' treaties and declarations. There will also be cancellation of all debt owed by the poorest nations, global poverty reductions, and an 'equitable sharing of global resources' as allocated by the UN.
"Part of the planning for the Millennium Assembly was done at a mostly unpublicized World Civil Society Conference in Montreal Dec. 8- 12. A further Millennium Conference titled 'On the Threshold: The United Nations and Global Governance in the New Millennium' is being held Jan. 19-21 in Japan. This will be followed by another preparatory Millennium Forum May 22-26 at UN Headquarters, featuring the first meeting of the 'People's Assembly', composed of representatives of elitist organizations, serving as a 'Global Legislature'."
The VTA added that "all Virginia elected officials and other citizens need to review documented information on this international planning and the major organizations involved, on the Internet web site www.freedom.org. If the states allow the U. S. government as their agent in international matters to acquiesce to present UN plans, Virginia state senators and delegates will find most of their major decisions have already been taken away from them and their duties will be largely ceremonial. Any pretense of representative government will have been cast into the dustbin."
In another action, the taxpayer association said a recent Heritage Foundation report on the failure of School-to-Work "proves VTA was entirely correct in our censure of Gov. Jim Gilmore and former governor George Allen for introducing this dangerous federal program over the heads of the General Assembly. Heritage cited five fundamental STW problems:
(1) violation of state constitutions; (2) promotion of questionable teaching methods, emphasizing work- based learning instead of focusing on acquisition of basic academic knowledge;
(3) federal industrial planning, which did not work in the Soviet Union;
(4) not voluntary as claimed and involving fundamental retooling of education of all public school. students, not just those who expect to go directly from high school to work; and
(5) destroying traditional liberal arts education in America and the virtue and importance of knowledge itself.
"Significantly, the Illinois General Assembly in 1999 unanimously passed, and the Illinois governor signed, Senate Bill 1133 prohibiting the state Board of Education from requiring a public school district or student to participate in a School-to-Work or job training program.
"With Congress sunsetting School-to-Work funding, Gilmore is introducing a further harmful federal industrial planning program funded by the Workforce Investment Act. It's another example of government changing the names of programs as soon as the public finds out how bad they are, and then dumbing-down educationists suckering Congress into even more costly sure-fail initiatives supposed to 'fix everything'." (END)
-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 13, 2000.
With respect Kurt Stratfor have an agenda - I believe they are a CIA front. Disinformation par excellence.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 13, 2000.
Howdy Kurt;Some reading material that may shed some light on Stratfor.com's analysis :
The text of the Agreement is way too long to post here ... but a real eye-opener as to what very well may be in the works!
-- hiding in plain (sight@edge of.nowhere), January 13, 2000.
Hokie:Good to see you again...thanks for the info!
Andy:
Can you substantiate this claim? No flame, but sincere interest and correct analysis requires valid/verifiable info... You can post here or to my email--it's real.
-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 13, 2000.
Hiding:Thank you for your prayers sir, I will not forget your kindness!
That's alot of info to consider! I on it...
-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 13, 2000.
Hiding:You sure the US didn't sign that too? It was during Klintoon's reign, after all? heh
-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 13, 2000.
I would not doubt that our illustrious Oxford-trained stooge helped write the darn thing .... wording is strangely suspicious of many recent EO's ... :-)
-- hiding in plain (sight@edge of.nowhere), January 13, 2000.
Kurt;Tis my pleasure to be of service. Thank you for your kind words, they bring joy and happiness to this humble heart.
Rev. ThunderLight
-- hiding in plain (sight@edge of.nowhere), January 13, 2000.
Her's just one example Kurt. For the past two years they've done a yearly review - their outlook for the coming year. I and some folks on another board [gold/economy] noticed that Stratfor ***consistently*** ignored y2k and it's potential social and economic and geopolitical ramifications. They just ***totally*** ignored it. It didn't exist, neither did Koskinen, the UN y2k group, Gartner etc. etc. I personally wrote to them twice asking why - no reply. Other folks wrote to them too - no reply.Does this sound like an "Intelligence Service"?
They have an agenda. Many of their reports imho are suspect.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 13, 2000.
Good Day Andy!I appreciate your input, and I'm not here to defend anyone else's policies, actions, or mental capacity--thi includes STRATFOR.COM. I have many sources of information (checks and balances, per se)
Having said that, I still fail to see the agenda you allege. I've read Y2K briefings from the CIA, and they most certainly "got it", ie: Lawrence Gershwin's testimony before the US Senate in '99. This is not consistent with the allegation that STRATFOR is a CIA front.
Disinformation? Hardly. The news articles can be independantly verified through the internet. Their analyses are reasonable and thorough, with conservative estimates and conclusions where any room for doubt exists. How do I know? My background involves intelligence, and I recognize the intent of the document.
Agenda? Please explain this agenda. I do not mean "do they have an agenda?", but what the particulars of this alleged agenda are--with documentation, references or some form of substantiation.
Their disregard of Y2K? I don't know. Ask them--you did, with no response. I'm sorry about that, but the lack of response does not imply motivation to deliberately mislead the masses. It is possible that STRATFOR's motivation was what you allege, but then again, it is just as possible STRATFOR decided not to saddle themselves with the time, money, and human effort to learn about Y2K (not their forte) as they would not be able to learn about Y2K faster than the likes of you or me--making their advisory role moot at best.
This is what I THINK is the reason--but I don't know.
Your thoughts are welcome, Andy.
-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 13, 2000.
Kurt;1) Did you get a chance to read through and digest that treaty? If so, comments?
2) I agree with your analysis of stratfor ... I have similar background and experience, and find them to be more than credible. Even when the bottom lines to their projections are incorrect, their trends are usually right on the money.
-- hiding in plain (sight@edge of.nowhere), January 13, 2000.
Kurt and Hiding,I have read them for years and yes they are *good*.
Sometimes too good - in that sometimes they ***leave stuff out***. Classic disinformation by ommission.
question.
Who funds them?
What is their function?
Answers please :o)
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 13, 2000.
Answer: Funded by and operate for the benefit of Private Industry.It is within my personal knowledge that a great deal more information is available to paying customers than what is available on their public website and press releases. I have had the ability, on many occasions, to read a detailed briefing/intel document from Stratfor, and then later read a 'public' version of the same material.
If you were in the business of selling detailed intel info, would you give it away? If so, where would your commercial revenue come from?
Further, I have no doubt that there are links to sources in other intel circles. Personal relationships with co-workers do not always go away when one leaves the employ of a former employer. Especially in that line of work.
Stratfor, Inc. is a private global intelligence services company that was founded in 1995 and is located in Austin, Texas. Stratfor provides its clients with customized in-depth analysis and forecasting focusing on global, geopolitical, and financial issues that affect their competitive position. Stratfor pioneered the field of business intelligence and is unrivaled in its range of cutting-edge, Internet-based capabilities.
Stratfor serves clients in a wide array of industries, including petrochemicals, media, telecommunications, investment banking, defense law, textiles and forestry industries, as well as regional governments and other organizations. We rigorously protect our clients identities and business interests and have no connection with any government agency.
Stratfors staff consists of professionals who are rigorously trained in Stratfors own methodology. Since intelligence problems require a variety of different sources and methods, Stratfor stresses an approach that integrates a wide variety of disciplines into a comprehensive methodology. The results of our work are displayed in our commentary and analysis of international political, economic, and financial affairs on the Internet at http://www.stratfor.com. Stratfors free Global Intelligence Update (GIU) is distributed via email to tens of thousands of subscribers 4 days a week, with weekly analyses, quarterly and annual forecasts covering particular regional and global issues.
Stratfor Business Intelligence Services
Stratfor produces customized information products that are entirely driven by the requirements of our clients through its Global Intelligence Services division. Our intelligence services include, but are not limited to, the following:
Monitoring and Forecasting - The Global Intelligence Service provides constant monitoring of regions, industries, and issues tailored to customer requirements. Analyses provide the latest international developments and news that affect a company's business interests and competitive position. Unlike traditional market research, Stratfors intelligence sources and methods are predictive as well as analytical.
Industry & Risk Analysis - Analysis of specific industries to provide clients with both situational awareness of the economic, social and political conditions affecting that industry as well as risk analysis. Stratfor also provides clients with time-phased industry forecasts that are especially useful for venture capitalists.
Country Analyses and Forecasting - Analysis of the economic, political, military and social conditions of individual countries or regions to provide clients with both situational awareness and risk analysis for pre-determined time periods.
Biographies - Stratfor can produce on demand a wide range of biographical information on individuals, including their professional careers, personal backgrounds and even their financial situations.
Competitor Analysis and Forecasting - Stratfor specializes in competitor analysis, meaning the actual or potential competitors that a company may face in a specific market. These analyses are of course customized to reflect the most critical competitive factors but will typically include the opposing companys background, ownership, financial status, products, services, markets, strategic plans and personnel.
Knowledge Management Consulting - Because it is an information-based business, Stratfor has special expertise in assessing, designing and implementing customized intelligence systems for its clients.
Training - Stratfor training programs allow us to work directly with your staff so that they can do their own intelligence gathering while using Stratfor resources more efficiently.
-- hiding in plain (sight@edge of.nowhere), January 14, 2000.