Slightly OT: A sign of the times?

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The level of vitriol being expressed by various folks around here is an interesting, if not worrying, sign of the times.

It shows firstly that making your own mind up, and taking responsibility for doing so, is out of fashion. Instead, there's far too many people who aren't willing to think and decide for themselves, who just want to attach themselves to some guru or other, and then, if he's wrong, get angry. People want to believe, not to understand. Don't think, be happy!

And secondly, it shows that "irrational optimism" has now given place to what I'd call fanatical optimism. "Irrational optimism" was of course what Alan Greenspan called it about 3 years ago when the Dow broke above 8000. Now, anyone saying anything like that -- whether about stockmarket risks, or Y2K risks, or any other risks -- gets pilloried, simply for suggesting that all may not be as well as it seems. People what to believe it's all good, not understand that the higher you fly, the further you can fall. The herd has not only donned rose-tinted spectacles, it would legislate to make them mandatory if that were possible.

Both these signs of the public mood have been seen before. Well recorded in histories of 1929, and remembered by myself ( as less prevalent than today) from 1987.

Drive carefully.

-- Nigel (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), January 11, 2000

Answers

Or take the road less travelled.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 11, 2000.


Nigel:

Well said. Unfortunately, when has making your own decisions been a truly widespread notion?

I'm in an extremely recession sensitive industry. I'm working now, to make some money, in case things go south still, from the possible internal coding problems.

Still hoping that the optimists are right, that the problems will be spread out enough that they can be handled without noticeable disruptions........

-- mushroom (mushroom_bs_too_long@yahoo.com), January 11, 2000.


Nigel,

My friend was just saying yesterdaay that her husband spends all day reading the newspapers and news magazines, getting programmed. He was extremely agitated when she prepped for Y2K. She feels the "why" of it was that it went against the programming he received.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 11, 2000.


Mara, thanks for the insight. That might apply to people in my life.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 11, 2000.

"And secondly, it shows that "irrational optimism" has now given place to what I'd call fanatical optimism. "Irrational optimism" was of course what Alan Greenspan called it about 3 years ago when the Dow broke above 8000."

Sorry, it was "Irrational Exuberance" from Alan Greenspan. Meaning the stock market was overpriced at the time, and buying stock at the prices(back then)it was Irrational to the point of being Joyously, Unrestrained. That was back before he determined that due to computers, the workers in the US were becoming much more productive.

I would bet that he would say the same thing today. There is so much speculation(reckless buying) in technology and in companies that have never shown a profit, that we should be concerned. We do not know if these managers will ever be able to turn a profit(Money magazine). As an example: Amazon.com sold $2.6 billion in goods and they did not show a profit. How much will it take. There are so many other tech companies that have never shown a profit that it seems like people are playing the lottery when they buy a share. It shares may go up(big) or go down. Some of us believe that when a profit is turned, it will be too little-too late. Then those PE's may fall back from infinity to the average S&P of 27. That is the day that the bubble will burst.

-- ned (ned@nednet.com), January 11, 2000.



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