O.T. S&P futures down 5 ticks....does it start today?

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If i am correct Jean Commeau's Stock Market down-turn requirements have been met. Does the Bear start feeding today

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), January 11, 2000


One HINT you might get that it has started would be if the first TWO circuit breaker pauses are tripped.


-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 11, 2000.

It starts when the S&P futures are down 25.

-- W (me@home.now), January 11, 2000.

If I'm not mistaken, Commeau's article gave a two month time span for the Crash to unfold. It may not happen overnight.

-- LunaC (LunaC@moon.com), January 11, 2000.


-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.net), January 11, 2000.

For what it's worth the European Indices were down as well last night.

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), January 11, 2000.

Yesterday the Nasdaq Composite was up 4.3%, a huge daily rise. There were ONLY about 800 more losers than gainers. This can only occur in a MANIA!

This morning the 30 year bond yield is heading north big time, the Nasdaq on globes is down about 55 points, oil is pushing $25 a barrel and gold has a bit of a glimmer.

If this is a Elliot Wave Grand Supercycle Top the bottom is a long ways off!

Could be an interesting day.


-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 11, 2000.

Should be 800 more gainers than losers.


-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 11, 2000.

Thought I bookmarked a site where the after hours futures rates were, but I guess I filed it under B for Bit Bucket.

Anyone got a link??? 'Cause I'm terminally lazy??


-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 11, 2000.

Chuck, here is a link to the globex.


-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 11, 2000.

Here is a link to Moore Research's Overnight Quotes.


-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 11, 2000.

Triggers anyone. The truth be told the "triggers" are usually identified after the turn. Why would one expect a record long bull market to turn overnight. Not very reallistic, considering the numbers of perma bulls that will push against any drop. If you are looking at the long term keep a long term view, and focus on the closings not the swings during the day.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), January 11, 2000.

As of late in the day trading all indices are "in the hole"

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), January 11, 2000.

As noted, such turns are primarily discovered after the fact. If the serious "bear"/collapse follows previous patterns, it will be a series of smallish declines (1% to 4%), followed each time by a smaller rally as folks "buy on the dips", until finally the light dawns:

"Hey, the market hasn't been really going up at all for the past few weeks..."

"Hey, y'know, a lot of those high P/Es are looking more and more risky..."

"Hey, what the !#$%, I'm 15% down YTD and losing money every week..."

and then the majority will head for the exits. Unfortunately, most will find that they will not be able to get out as quickly as they thought, which then leads to a market "panic".

This can take many months to unfold, so best just to stand back and try to avoid getting hit by debris...

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), January 11, 2000.

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