While we are not through all of the Y2K sofware problems yet, we have reached a milestone and success is at hand. I really think that with all the time we've invested in discussing the topic that we consider each providing our "Lessons Learned" at some point in time over the next few weeks, after the emotions are gone and our visions are a little clearer (I probably need another week, plus busy these days).

Rick, I know you are busy as well, but I hope you will provide your Lessons Learned as well. A few things that come to mind are: 1. What exactly was the real threat by Y2K problems in embedded systems? Did we succeed because they were never a serious problem? Or because we fixed them? Both?

2. Nuclear plant monitoring systems - were these a threat for Y2K that got fixed? I can't be a good judge of this, all the plants I have direct knowledge of had recent upgrades, so they weren't good "test cases". Can other nuclear insiders provide some feedback? I think both Rick and I suspected that these systems might have been susceptable in some plants...but were they?

3. The political dynamics of Y2K-- this was a beast of its own. I think the early "warnings" that exagerated the problem helped in the beginning, maybe hurt at the end, as everything was done by slow bureaucratic "programs", really slowing everything down and causing much wheel spinning. I would like to explore this further.

When I get time, a week or so, I would like to provide my lessons learned, and I hope all here inside and outside the industry will do the same, maybe this way we can get something out of all of our efforts. I spent almost a year on a project, fixed some things, but a drop in the bucket really. I want a little more out of my time invested, don't you?

Regards,

2

-- Anonymous, January 10, 2000

Answers

FactFinder,

If I cry wolf with any family or friends again, like I did with y2k, then that wolf better be ripping the jugular out of them all. Otherwise, I won't be believed.

-- Anonymous, January 11, 2000

FactFinder,

Personally, I feel like I was one of the characters in the Wizard of Oz. I got picked up along the road and joined the quest. The highlight was the part where they arrived at Oz and stood trembling before the apparent wizard. Smoke, flashing lights, thunder and trepidation. Then Toto pulls the curtain and we get a different reality. And hop in our balloon, our bubble economy, and head back to Kansas. We aren't actually back in our bed in Kansas yet, but pretty darn close.

So my lesson is that I love a good story, with a scary plot, and can get totally wrapped up and involved in it. The Munchkins said the Wizard could answer all our questions, and I guess he did, but not quite in the way I had anticipated. All's well that ends well. Beyond that, I leave it to those with a degree in psychology or philosophy. Because, no matter how much I have tried to understand the traditional explanations of what happened and why, there are those nagging 3rd world countries that did little or nothing, and suffered little or nothing. Same applies to all the "non-mission-critical" systems that theoretically should be blowing up all around us right now. I think you have to admit, there are a lot more questions than answers right now, and the questions are either embarrassing or disturbing, depending which side of belief you were/are on.

-- Anonymous, January 11, 2000

Good idea, FactFinder. And what a coincidence, Gordon. The "Wizard of Oz" is what came to my mind, too, this morning as I was trying to define my Y2K experience. After a wild and seemingly dangerous adventure, I'm waking up in "Kansas" where everything's normal again. And like Dorothy, I've somehow learned some important real-life lessons from this seemingly imaginary adventure. Like how much our emergency services people routinely do to protect us from harm; how easy it is for me to ignore what doesn't fit in with my views; the fact that most folks appreciated my good intentions, even when they doubted my views; the fact that intelligent people can look at the same facts and still disagree strongly; and how to read those funny expiration dates on canned foods. And I've learned that sometimes TPTB, like the Wizard, may be full of "spin" but still doing a good job nonetheless. I'm sure there are more lessons, but those are a few I'm grateful for. I've also enjoyed participating in this bulletin board, in particular, very much. - Judy

-- Anonymous, January 11, 2000

Well said Judy, well said. You added a lot, and I agree with you.

-- Anonymous, January 12, 2000

Gordon:

These words of yours will always be a mystery to me. "there are those nagging 3rd world countries that did little or nothing, and suffered little or nothing." I have read many explanations and don't buy any of them even 50%. I have no doubt that we had a problem and it was necessary to spend billions to fix it. My state of Florida spent 1 billion it doesn't have and Rome, Italy spent next to nothing. Results are the same. It doesn't make sense. For me, it will remain a mystery.

Chuck

-- Anonymous, January 12, 2000

If there are any lessons to be learned surrounding the events and outcome regarding Y2K I would think (in my case) it would be the fact that being prepared only further enhanced my sense of independence and security. Several households in my village prepared in a sensible way that related to their own personal resources. Since my village does not have the tax base to purchase emergency equipment for disasters, storms, accidents etc. the actions taken by those residents in terms of preparations for Y2K will contribute to the overall emergency prepardness level of our community as a whole. Also, I have learned that those people who live in the city or large communities as opposed to smaller areas are less likely to feel the need to be prepared as they are able to rely on emergency measures organizations and have services more readily available. In smaller communities such as mine, everyone is used to running to the neighbors to borrow. Many times just due to the fact that a 20 minute drive to town does not warrant the purchase of a loaf of bread or gas for the snowblower. Having extra supplies in the freezer, pantry, garage etc. is a bonus! What one person is lacking, another person has available. I have to admit I did go overboard on my Y2K supplies - I usually have meat for the winter, however my freezer has enough meat to last for a good 6 months, and I'll be baking bread to no end! Crazy, eh? Such is life!! BTW, I talked to three of my friends from Eastern Canada (I grew up in Ontario) by e-mail & phone and I'll tell you one thing for sure - that ice storm sure put the desire to prepare into the minds of many in that area. One friend living in the Great Lakes region just chuckled at my concern as they are very prone to power outages due to heavy snowfall and ice - she says they look at it as an opportunity to go snowmobiling!! Since the ice storm, they are well prepared to deal with any disruptions. Lastly, I have to say following the various viewpoints, actions and reactions evolving from the Y2K issue was one of the most interesting and educational experiences I have ever encountered.

-- Anonymous, January 12, 2000

Bob, I understand what you are saying, but you werent the only one taken in by some of the grand claims of Y2K disaster. You might remind them of reports from Gartner Group and Giga back in 1997, 1998, and even recent reports such as from the CIA (warning of likely problems in other countries). If anything, I myself am a greater skeptic than ever because of Y2K  of supposedly authoritative sources when it comes to highly technical matters. I am also more skeptical of industry PR spokespersons and press releases, since I frequently found that the data available behind the press releases was generally good as far as Y2K status, but never quite as good as the releases themselves. Industry should have countered some of the myths and hype with detailed facts for the public to look at for themselves (some did, BC Hydro comes to mind). I would guess that you, like I, will be more skeptical when the next grand claim comes around. As they say, grand claims should require grand evidence.

And Bob, maybe this will help  when Ive made a mistake regarding my wife or kids, I admit it and say Ill try to do better next time. Of course they all know its only a matter of time until I make another mistake, but they sure do appreciate the thought, lol.

Gordon, You wrote I think you have to admit, there are a lot more questions than answers right now, and the questions are either embarrassing or disturbing, depending which side of belief you were/are on.  I sure do agree with this, and I think I will let more time pass before I even start to contemplate some of the more important questions, a sort of decompression time, if you know what I mean. I think I know some of the answers, but time for the emotional aspects to dwindle away will allow me (and perhaps others) a clearer and more accurate assessment.

Judith wrote: Like how much our emergency services people routinely do to protect us from harm; how easy it is for me to ignore what doesn't fit in with my views; the fact that most folks appreciated my good intentions, even when they doubted my views; the fact that intelligent people can look at the same facts and still disagree strongly; and how to read those funny expiration dates on canned foods. 

What a candid admission Judith, and I loved the humor as well. How easy it is for me to ignore what doesnt fit in with my views could have fit me perfectly at times, I was so geared up to delivering my message that I did not always (ever?) provide a balanced viewpoint that included the bad news as well as the good. Ill try to do better next time ;)

Chuck, the lack of at least significant y2k problems in financial software in the third world countries that started late (if at all) is a mystery to me as well. As far as money spent, its my understanding that much of the 100-600 billions reportedly spent on Y2K in the US came out of IT regular budgets, with some additional moneys added. I will say this  a lot of money was spent and wasted on programs, and a lot of upgrades were purchased that werent absolutely necessary, but desired  the Y2K money bag was much appreciated by some. We had an independent walkdown of our plant that was worth the money spent, and numerous audits. IV&V of everything would have been an absolute waste based on the lack of serious problems that were found on the project I worked on.

Val wrote: If there are any lessons to be learned surrounding the events and outcome regarding Y2K I would think (in my case) it would be the fact that being prepared only further enhanced my sense of independence and security.  I can relate to this  I wish I had an alternate power source for ice storms myself, but cant justify the expense at this time. I do have a Coleman stove and camping gear though.

Lastly, I have to say following the various viewpoints, actions and reactions evolving from the Y2K issue was one of the most interesting and educational experiences I have ever encountered. 

Val, I think you are right about Y2K being an extremely interesting experience. Being right in the middle of a nuclear plant y2k project and then watching what was said, reported, and claimed, I was amazed by the grandness of the social event it became. I would like to have brought some of you into my plant, showed the assessment reports, watched some of the testing. I am confident you would have been not too impressed by the Y2K thing. You would likely have rolled your eyes and said, thats it? Thats all you found? When compared to other problems in the nuclear plant where I worked, y2k problems found were insignificant in plant systems, and FAR more serious problems were delayed while we stopped to address the few minor y2k bugs in plant system equipment for political reasons. Other plants may have found more serious problems, but these must have been in the very small majority, since I could only find a few reports of serious problems in my search through hundreds of utility reports in our industry Y2K information resources.

I think most here knew that Y2K could end up being a relatively minor event, at least deep down. But many thought we would have many more problems. But why? Did the Internet play a signficant role in this? I found that the mainstream media was much more accurate than the informal information passed along on the Internet. Any thoughts on this? Also, was the industry itself a factor in this? Why so much mistrust of an industry that had its own self-interest at stake in keeping the lights on for Y2K?

Regards,

-- Anonymous, January 12, 2000

My lessons learned (as a private citizen) include:

1. I would be willing to help people even in dire circumstances, and even if there were more people in need than I had resources, I would still do something for them.

2. Even though the thought of giving up technology's benefits even for a short while did cause me trepidation, part of me was looking forward to my imaginary scenario of people once again needing to know one another. I hope there is a way to re-form community ties even without giving up technology's benefits, now that disaster has not struck anywhere at all and the challenge turned out to be an illusion. 3. No one understands the complex interactions of the web of technology we stand on--even the CIA, FBI, and many very successful businesses didn't know enough even after investigating the issue to see that the problem was essentially trivial, so the prudent ones went ahead and worked on it beforehand, when they could have just stuck with FOF, like many other countries and small businesses did...

4. I love having electricity, hot showers, and appliances that do the drudgery of running things. And it is worth feeling foolish (and looking like an idiot to my family!) for having been worried, yet to still have those and other things.

-- Anonymous, January 12, 2000

It's interesting, because I don't feel foolish for the strong belief I held "that bad things were going to happen," and for the fear I felt. I knew that it was possible that it would be a non-event, as was April 1, July 1, August 23? (GPS rollever), and September 9. I was hoping that it would be a non-event. But two years ago, Senator Bennett said that "if Y2k were to happen tomorrow, everything would stop." I thought he knew what he was talking about, and that there really wasn't time to fix everything. Then there were the embedded chip experts. The head of the Y2k committee from IEEE, the IEE of England, the expert who said there is a secondary clock, and that he found up to 25% failure rate, and finally Mr. CEO. There was also the CIA, the Naval War College. These are some pretty heavy duty people who were very concerned--to say nothing of our beloved Rick Cowles. I was hoping it would be a non-event, especially because of the lack of preparation of almost everyone I know. But for myself, I felt a need to prepare for the worst I could imagine. I have a sweet, beautiful, wonderful 2-1/2 year old granddaughter, and I didn't want to let her down.

I also learned how selfish I am. Though I tried to prepare for a lot of people in my family, and some of my friends, I found myself cutting myself off from other friends, because I didn't feel I had enough to extend to everyone. I've always thought of myself as a generous person, but I found myself feeling stingy when my family's well being was at stake.

I'm also very surprised to find myself a gun owner for the first time in my life--a 12 gauge shot gun, a 357 magnum revolver, and a Rumanian pellet gun. And I have lots of ammo. But you know, it's really nice to be able to look at the rabbits, the squirrels, and the doves around our ranch, and not have to imagine someday eating them.

It has been a huge relief for me. I feel stronger, more independent, more powerful, and like I'm a much more interesting person from the experience. (Oh yeah. I also bought a machete made in the Philipines. When one of the Mexican workers I hired to help with all the projects I undertook last year said he needed a knife to cut his burrito, we all got a big kick after we pulled out the machete for him to use.)

I plan to continue building my solar system with more batteries, a more powerful inverter, and more panels. I plan to finally install one of the wood stoves I bought. I plan to buy more medicinal herbs to expand my medicinal garden. I plan to round out my fruit and berry collection with cranberries, and other varieties I missed last year. We plan to drill a third well, hoping to find a better, more secure water source to help out in possible years of drought to come.

I'm planning to keep as much of the food as possible, using some of the flour, and giving some of it away before it gets too old, then replacing what we use or give away. I kind of like the power of having a store of things, just in case. I also like having a store of things so that they're available when when we run out and don't have to run to the store. I feel like I'm living more how our ancestors lived, where they had to depend on their stores to make it through the winter.

I'm hoping that one of these years we'll have an abundance of food produced on our land so we can sell it, or have it to share with others, or use it to live on in our old age.

I had a heightened sense of creativity and drive this year. I felt like I was working two jobs. One to make money, the other to spend it. I made friends at Home Depot who saw me there almost everynight. People there I don't even remember talking with say "Hi" to me when I visit (shop).

The Mexican workers I hired from Tecate all seem pretty impressed with the solar system, and the Casita de Sol we built (and haven't yet finished), that has straw-bale insulation, and a secret room in the middle, with a door that swings from side to side, and that stays open via a hook attached to a chain from the ceiling of an adjacent room. In that little room, I have a couple of barrels of gasoline, and a bunch of gas cans. I never got them all filled, and have been using some of the gas in my truck.

And I'll always treasure the new friends I made, after writing an article about Y2K in our small-town shopper paper, and having meetings, first at the elementary school, later in people's homes. We now have a little community in a community where I knew relatively few people. I now have a new best friend who lives down the street, shares my interest in medicinal herbs, and also installed a solar system. We're continuing to share with each other. In fact, we're getting together this Sunday for dinner, and to share seeds for medicinal herbs we've collected from our plants, or mail ordered. We're also having a joint birthday party at the end of this month, to celebrate our 52nd birthdays. If any of you live near San Diego, please let me know, and I'll give you directions and more info.

And last but not least, I feel a connection with an unlikely online community of engineers and concerned citizens, and a warmth toward a person who calls himself FactFinder, who has been showing more of his heart lately, and to many intelligent and caring women, who so elegantly expressed their views on this forum. And to other men who shared my views, and were passionate in their sharing, such as Lane and Gordon and Rick.

What a thing this year has been.

Victoria

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2000

I have contingency plans, no matter what. That is the lesson I have learned. In this case, I have two levels of remote retreat arranged, food stored etc. I have also been working on a project that may interest this fine group of smart people. http://home.earthlink.net/~aztc/85K.ppt It has been a real privilige to lurk here. As concerns the future of computer systems, even though there have not been mass failures, there remains risk in the cummulative effect of many minor errors, plus the failures of the xx86 rtc/bios only happens after several on and off cycles, so I am glad to have more than one option for me and my family. The house I live in had a digital meter on the the main electric supply panel. It was made by ABB, and when I looked up the info on their Y2K site, it was contradictory. My local utilitie's site said nothing about it. I decided to just leave it and see what happened. If it failed open, (which I can't see how since it doesn't have any sort of switch that I know of), I could bypass it long enough if neccessary. It had a two digit date function. The LED readout changed every second or so and one of the displays was a 6 digit date field. I left town for the holiday, attended an all night ceremony at a remote private resort built in the early 1900's. Spent hours in natural hot springs the next day, soaking. It actually snowed. I never even turned on a radio until January 2. When I got back, guess what, the meter had been replaced...with a mechanical one. Please check out that link, and, extra please, consider Heather Harden for president in 2000, www.harden2000.com

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2000

Factfinder,

You were right, and I am very glad. Congratulations.

However, I am very disturbed by the lack of continued emphasis by you and all the other engineers on the insignificant size of the problem to begin with.

While I haven't read all of your posts, I have read many many, and my arguments were never backed up by any hard numbers - very unusual for a bunch of engineers.

You said, now, finally

"I would like to have brought some of you into my plant, showed the assessment reports, watched some of the testing. I am confident you would have been not too impressed by the Y2K thing. You would likely have rolled your eyes and said, 'thats it?' Thats all you found? When compared to other problems in the nuclear plant where I worked, y2k problems found were insignificant in plant systems, and FAR more serious problems were delayed while we stopped to address the few minor y2k bugs in plant system equipment for political reasons. Other plants may have found more serious problems, but these must have been in the very small majority, since I could only find a few reports of serious problems in my search through hundreds of utility reports in our industry Y2K information resources. "

The rest of us never had access to these reports to know just how small the problem really was, and I have yet to find anything other than your "hundreds of reports" with no problems, to give any dimension to the actual size of the problem.

Marcella sent me one post she found a week after roll over by someone@somewhere which said essentially that they found only 1 problem out of 6500 systems with embedded chips tested. That works out to 99.998% no problems with embedded chips before even starting, yet we constantly heard 1-5% and often more. (Hope that math is right - as I am having trouble with the decimals as the number is so small)

It becomes more and more apparent to me that in my opinion, we didn't solve the y2k problem, it just never existed, and no one had the guts to put numbers to it to prove that it didn't exist as a problem. It was a potential problem, for which the forecast potential magnitude was so far off as to be nothing more than a pathetic, bad joke.

Personally, I am very disappointed, not that y2k didn't happen, but that the people involved did not use their brains and mouths properly. Even those in the know, gave vague political (weasel worded) assurances and put out no numbers. The words of the engineers and the lawyers (liars) were the same.

Y2k in fact was no bigger than the pimple on a knat's ass and no one told us in words that were believable, using facts to back them up.

The press wasn't right because they were right. They were right because they were stupid, like normal, and just repeated the words of the politicians. They did absolutely no analysis.

xBob

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2000

I've spent much of the time since the rollover trying to decide if I should feel sheepish or not. I've been ribbed by various people about the lack of huge Y2K failures, and have not even attempted to defend myself against those with a crabby attitude and closed ears whose only comments have been caustic toward my preparations. For those who have been willing to discuss it, they've been surprised to hear that there were huge amounts of money spent on the recommendations of people who are respected experts in their various programming and technical fields, and that there HAVE been many not-insignificant failures. It was not only the "weirdo-survivalist-rightwing-Christian-cultists" who prepared for Y2K; if one looks at the various law-enforcement, banking, manufacturing, power generation, government, etc. groups who were on duty at the rollover, it becomes clear that very many thoughtful and intelligent people took Y2k very seriously. More money was spent on this than on some wars! Somehow, despite some/much/no money being spent, the world did not end, and we don't have an explanation for it.

I can't be embarrassed about my preparation actions. I was assured by power plant engineers at U of M and MSU that they were concerned about Detroit Edison's state of readiness, and thus the readiness of the eastern power grid. I was assured by an engineer at MSU's power plant that his compadres at U of M's power plant were definitely going off the grid on December 30, because of their concerns about a possible failure by Detroit Edison, and the subsequent effects on the patients at UofM's medical center and on a lot of research animals in Ann Arbor. (Sorry,FactFinder--I couldn't answer all of your questions at that time, as I had agreed not to publish what I knew as a condition of being told.) I felt that I took reasonable pieces of the puzzle and put them together in a reasonable way; fortunately, for some bizarre but unknown reason, the puzzle happened to assemble itself in a way which has confounded many people.

If I had the same information now that I had before, I would probably do much the same as I did. I have six kids, farm animals, a ministry to pregnant women, and a thoughtful and educated mind. I'm much more concerned at the government's continued pre-rollover "it's no problem" spin on Y2K, because their actions in spending money and preparing for y2k belied their public statements. What if the experts had been right? We would be facing great difficulties in transportation, food supplies, medical care, and cold weather, and a lot of unprepared people.

Our lives have been altered in positive ways. Our wood stove is now our primary heat source in our home, and we don't have to shop nearly as often. I've gained a tremendous amount by exchanging information and discourse on this and other forums, and I've made some new friends. Other than having a lot of lamp oil that will take me until I'm an old lady to use up, I really don't have many regrets about my plans.

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2000

Something else I must add is that as much as I felt the need to urge others in my community to prepare, I decided against sending out Y2K flyers, organizing a meeting for residents etc. and instead did what I thought best so that each individual could make their own decisions - I stockpiled information!! I wrote letters to various government departments (federal & provincial), the Canadian Red Cross, The Gartner Group, and received information from Industry Canada, Sask Power etc. I also compiled approximately 20 folders with information from NERC, Saskatchewan Urban Municipal Affairs, Industry Canada website information, The Federal government's website etc. In this way, my village council could further their own investigation if they desired, and the information was also on display in the office for anyone who wished to do their own research. I also made sure that the url's were included on the documents, as well as phone numbers etc. The reason for this particular approach to creating awareness was simply the fact that I really did not have any idea what could/would happen, and I was not qualified to offer advice or my own opinions. I also found that my own views changed daily - sometimes I felt the whole thing was overblown (and it was), and sometimes I felt like we were indeed facing a major catastrophe. At this point, I should add that I greatly thank all those people (especially factfinder) for providing the optimistic, positive information that provided me with some balance and reality. Anyway, although everyone in my village knows that we made extensive preps, absolutely no one has ridiculed me for doing so! During many conversations with neighbors and friends, I'm sure the details I offered on my preparations may have been the factor that encouraged others to do some prepping on their own, however I never told anyone they should do anything, except read the information at the village office, and do some research themselves. Also, the bulk of the information I gave my village office during the first 6 months of /99 and I only provided updates after that. During the month of December, I found enough was enough. There was also sufficient information on personal preparation on the radio, as well as in our local newspaper. Lesson learned: When your motivations come from genuine concern and the desire to promote awareness (on any issue), remember you may be right, but you may be way off base! It is best to do what the big boys do - cover your butt (or, in the case of Y2K, just shut up and buy toilet paper for everyone!). I also learned that categorizing people as either a doomer or a polyanna was totally ridiculous! There are many people who just didn't know what the heck to believe - period, and that was the basis for many of my friends being personally ready for disruptions. Lastly, when I think of Y2K, one of the things that immediately comes to my mind is that of a baseball game my son played a few years back. Here we are in the middle of the bald prairie when a storm approaches. No problem, until the lightning was just a little too close for comfort. The parents appeared nervous, but no one moved. Finally, I grabbed my son from the field and headed to my vehicle. Well, it didn't take but a few seconds for everyone to follow! The next day, a couple of the children told my son, "If it wasn't for your mom, we would have won!" Thankfully, they didn't all feel that way! :)

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2000

Did the Internet play a signficant role in this?

Well, one thing I did learn about Y2K is nearly all information available, all the major discussion forums and y2k sites were focused on or dominated by US net users. From the small amount of research I was able to do across the different European y2k web sites, my guess is that there were never more than a couple of hundred people taking a regular interest, in terms of participation in online discussion. Here in Scandinavia, where I understand the languages, y2k local discussion group participation at a local level was minimal - probably no more than about 50 people across all the scandinavian countries. In Denmark, despite numerous online discussion forums set up for the topic over the last year (from Government, media, occasional concerned citizens, other technical organisations), nearly all had folded through lack of interest by mid 1999, though there was a brief flurry a week or two before rollover (as the subject became momentarily newsworthy). My conclusion is that Y2K was not just an internet phenomenom but an almost exclusively north American phenomenom.

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2000

xBob, thanks for your input, I tried to address some of your comments in cl's thread above.

Chris, your comment about Y2K doomsday being a North American phenomenom is interesting, but what about the UK? I found plenty of scare stories originated there. UK also did seem to have a number of more serious problems during the remediation phase as well (the power meter "cards", etc).

Regards,

-- Anonymous, January 15, 2000