I can't find my own post of a couple of weeks ago about dating for "sighs of relief" (help, anybody). The first big sigh of relief is the grid -- I felt it would take the first week of January to have reliable information on its stability (optimistically).

I'm feeling good about that at this point. There may well be ongoing stress, reliability problems, even brownouts or blackouts that prove to be Y2K-caused but generally, the world's grids seem to be holding.

That is great news.

By the end of this month, we should have reasonable news about banking. Here again, we see no catastrophic result, but the jury is out on internal issues for now. Likewise oil.

This raises one of the thorniest issues about Y2K - thorny from beginning to rollover and now from rollover on - the quality of the information that is being disseminated.

I don't personally want on this thread to get into premature debates about whether we were told the truth or not about Y2K, since it remains to be seen whether we are being told the truth about Y2K at THIS point. No, this isn't a trip down paranoia lane, just a legitimate question about the many disconnects in the process to date and their persistence.

It is no secret that the government made early decisions to channel all data towards a "no panic, Y2K will be okay" result LONG BEFORE the data could possibly have been in ABOUT Y2K. Likewise, NERC. Likewise, banking.

Obviously, one can spin and manage information without it following that the information will LATER prove to be false. "If we report it, they will come."

The sobering issue here, for me at least, is the long erosion of reasons for trusting official information, given the PRIORITY of spin over fact-data. I apologize not at all for my mistrust of the mainstream media and the government as it stands. Clinton is a liar and promotes lying throughout his administration. He isn't the first, just the best at it.

Consequently, as I said in numerous posts ("you can look it up"), Y2K was never an issue of outright lying. If so, that would have been EASY to challenge, but a far more murky problem of discerning where lies and facts could be distinguished. Heck, no one should have to choose between John Koskinen, Paula Gordon and Cherri.

With respect to the coming few months, NO DOUBT the current absence of catastrophic Y2K events is extremely encouraging. I'm in a general state of giggling ecstasy about it most of the time -- call it a contact high. But we are continuing to see the same pattern of public communication about it -- "nothing is Y2K", "Y2K is over", etc.

Hey, MAYBE it is.

But IF it is, the need to examine the extraordinary disconnects will only become greater. Government bunkers. Government (including intelligence reports) routinely predicting severe problems in many countries around the world, disruptions in supply chains, potentially devastating terrorist attacks, etc. A requirement for Citibank to spend hundreds of millions of dollars while entire countries, it seems, could FOF WITHOUT A TRACE OF Y2K PROBLEMS (didn't I say "Y2K is over"). And so it goes.

North and Yourdon were pikers.

Whatever. Someone call Noam Chomsky for me, I may need to read him seriously one of these days after all.

Back to the future: by May, we should be able to call Y2K impacts one way or the other. For those who believe it's over, would you please either leave the forum or stop trashing those of us who are still examining the evidence? After two years of pondering, it won't hurt me to judiciously consider the subject a few more months with likeminded people.

To those of you who are posting stories, anecdotes, articles, thank you. Keep in mind that anonymous stories are absolutely useless at this stage. If you can't name your company or industry by using an anonymizer on the Internet, then your story doesn't deserve any attention.

I'm still looking for an 8.5. If it turns out to be the < 1 that Y2K is currently is being "reported" to be, I'll be fascinated both by the technical implications of that as well as the media and PR implications.

Meanwhile, I'm hoping for my next sigh of relief towards the end of January. Then, we can move on to supply chains, IRS and the like.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 09, 2000

Answers

Hey BigDog,

Its over ya goofball! Get a clue.

Doug

-- Doug (Doug@itsover.com), January 10, 2000.

Hey Doug, are you talking about FOOTBALL SEASON?

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), January 10, 2000.

Thanks for the post BigDog.

-- PA Engineer (PA Engineer@longtimelurker.com), January 10, 2000.

Sysops

Do we have an IP for the following:

Hey BigDog,

Its over ya goofball! Get a clue.

Doug

-- Doug (Doug@itsover.com), January 10, 2000.

This just sounds so familar.

-- PA Engineer (PA Engineer@longtimelurker.com), January 10, 2000.

"I can't find my own post of a couple of weeks ago about dating for "sighs of relief"" .......... see thread 0027tq

STILL looking for an 8.5? Without any grid problems?

-- alan (foo@bar.com), January 10, 2000.

Hey -- PA Engineer,

What pray tell type of engineer are you? There are many tools to determine IP addresses. Ya need one?

Doug

-- Doug (Doug@itsover.com), January 10, 2000.

Doug

Got plenty. Just post your email and I can do the rest.

-- PA Engineer (PA Engineer@longtimelurker.com), January 10, 2000.

Good post, Big Dog. I believe we're entitled to seriously consider what's going on without leaping to conclusions.

I find the press repulsive. If they don't lie, they are at the very least guilty of utter stupidity. I can't bear to watch the vapidity of the national media. Help!

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 10, 2000.

Good points BigDog: I think it is sufficient to say that you and I share a deep and abiding mistrust of the channels of information that purport to inform.

It is resonable enough to suggest that if indeed the computer failures that were predicted have come and gone, and that their severity in terms of the impacts to the enterprises employing them has run its course, then there are a number of obvious questions screaming loudly for answers.

The money and effort expended by the more advanced nations was reported to be huge (~$800 billion at last count). As you correctly point out, if countries such as Italy, China, Russia, and several of the South American countries - countries that were reported to have been woefully behind in both effort and timing, are themselves experiencing the same "minor" levels of Y2K related problems, it simply begs for some rather obvious investigative reporting.

For myself, I shall remain aware of the seeming anomaly as I return my life to a focus that is post Y2K. Only my relief over the lack of severe disruptions exceeds my on-going skepticism.

With respect,

-- Dave Walden (wprop@concentric.net), January 10, 2000.

BD, my feeling is that y2k is probably a 90% non-issue. The problem is that 10%.

It's not Timebomb2000 anymore. It's Timebomb 11000/4000, Dow Jones and NASDAQ respectively. The scenario is that the wealth effect of the stock bubble is driving consumer spending and consumer spending is driving the economy.

There are a number of blasting caps which could set off the Timebomb. Y2K gridlock of some companies' back-office operations is but one of these blasting caps.

I think the y2k blasting cap is unlikely to occur, but it's there nonetheless.

My personal opinion is that prep supplies are probably unnecessary at this point, but that's my personal opinion only. That's not advice to anyone else. Of course , this thing has changed my whole outlook, and I'll probably always keep a month's worth of vittles handy.

I'll probably eat/donate my supplies over the next 30 days.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), January 10, 2000.

In my opinion, excellent post by BigDog.

-- Bruce (Bruce@bruce.com), January 10, 2000.

This evening I read an account of the 9 main media controllers/owners, unfortunately I can't remember which thread it was on. It was very appropriate to this discussion. Maybe someone who's not computer illiterate can link it up here? (ie. it takes all my skill to get to this forum.)

-- pramada (pram108@yahoo.com), January 10, 2000.

I agree with BigDog.

Those who summarily dismiss "Y2K" as "over" are just demonstrating what most GI's have always argued: They still don't GI and never did. Y2K was never about the first or 2nd or 3rd week in January. What we have seen so far certainly is encouraging as worst case scenarios are being eliminated but I'm not ready to cash in my insurance policy just yet. It's waaaaaay too early. sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), January 10, 2000.

Just hope those generators in Texas running the power plant don't run outta gas, heh. Can anyone define "hanging by a thread"?

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 10, 2000.

This *Sigh* BigDog?

Eleventh hour question #2: If the lights are on at 7 p.m. Eastern time (Midnight Greenwich Meantime), are we justified in breathing a sigh of relief?

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 0027cA

BTW... Ive learned more about vested interests and government spin that I *ever* thought possible over the past year.

Will I ever trust one, or a limited few sources for media/press/dot gov P.R. "news" again? No.

Its been quite an education in... higher learning.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 10, 2000.

BigDog,

Good post. May we continue to look both ways before crossing the street!

Grace

-- Grace (grace17@pacbell.net), January 10, 2000.

I managed to get out of bed enough to read some threads, and have enough umph to wonder outloud: Beyond nuclear war and armageddon brought by aliens or other (grin), are we now beyond seeing a 9 or 10 unfold? What preps are relevant now to thoughtful prognoses-makers?

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), January 10, 2000.

Puddin -- Obviously, I don't see the percentages the same way you do, though I hope you're right. Certainly, the "markets" have been on our minds here for the past year and more. While I don't ascribe superhuman powers to Greenspan or omniscient conspiratorial abilities to world bankers, the market long since passed bubble stage and keeps merrily chugging along. I'm not sure anyone, including those figures, really understands what is happening. A major correction someday is quite different than a meltdown -- at this point, who knows?

Stan -- Agree with you about a 9-10. I said (and will) downgrade my own current expectations to a 7 at end of month if things remain calm. But there ARE lots of errors still bubbling up INTERNALLY around world and their effect on the world's overall noise level is not yet well understood. With respect to preps, people have a quiet space within which to consider whether Y2K prepping was an "interlude" or the beginning of a different and more joyous lifestyle.

As for me, raising beef cattle (new this year), improving my marksmanship, ham radio skills and mastering use of the greenhouse for 4-season gardening will keep me occupied. Plus I need to improve my golf game by at least five strokes. And, as has been true all along, I'm doing it for fun first of all.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 10, 2000.

Doug; Sniping is a dangerous game. Sometimes it comes back to haunt one... Of course engaging in debate is even more dangerous. Sometimes you are made to look like a fool... Want to keep playing games?

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 10, 2000.

Very clear and straightforward post, BD.

I find myself somewhat over saturated with info on the most current glitches...there are so many that I can no longer keep up. I'm grateful for those sturdy souls who are keeping track (so I don't have to!)

At this point, I am becoming somewhat concerned about the apparent nationwide droughty conditions, lack of rain/snow, etc. with which we are beginning the new year. The Nat Weather Serv is also projecting decreased rainfall through the early part of the year....(if you can trust weathermen!). Something else to wonder about, I guess.

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), January 10, 2000.

I find it a TAD BIT optimistic to assume that every single solitary individual working on every single computer system that was remediated was a tried and true Boy Scout/Honest Abe, etc. It would appear that the Rollover issued in a NEW AGE OF HONESTY and INTEGRITY! We are led to believe that computers and lines of code and functioning systems is the only factor in play.

But, what about the programmer who put in a "backdoor" in a system; what about a programmer being paid to deliberately sabotage a competitor's systems; what about a government placing a programmer in a position to plant a virus in a critical gov. system? All of these possibilities seem to be ignored.

Also, there is the "crime factor". Are we to believe that there was not a single individual interested in gaining from the glitches and confusion many folks anticipated at Rollover?

And Hackers...I guess there aren't any anymore. Same with viruses...they are apparently extinct. What an amazing day this is!! THIS IS THE AGE OF NAIVETTE, or a TRULY NEW DAY IN THE WORLD.

We are being led to believe that if a business can continue to operate, then all snags can eventually be worked out. Well, what about the cascading effects regarding inability to reconcile books, inability to track theft from employees or the public, etc.?

Also, just because America is THE LAND OF AMNESIA, we cannot assume that every nation of the world suffers from this same affliction. Some of us got a REALLY BIG DOSE of depression and anger, when we aquired an education as to how vulnerable our country really is. Many of us who prepped extensively noticed that as of today, our country appears to place EFFICIENCY ABOVE NATIONAL SECURITY! If the U.S. were attacked, many of us (and our country's enemies) realize that a TWIN DEVASTATION would occur. Not only would our emaciated military be caught unprepared for a major conflict, but anything destroyed could not be repaired, since everything appears to be JIT delivery! The public would not be able in all cases to aquire essentials such as food!

I consequently think of grocery stores as "Rations OUTLETS"--for 3 days to a single week.

The greatest single plus to y2k is this: There is now within the U.S. a rudimentary civil defence program in place ( and it was initiated completely by civilians like Ed Yourdon and Gary North).Some of the older folks on this forum probably remember the Fall-out shelters that were clearly marked in every U.S. city. Some remember the stashes of food the government stockpiled for the citizenry of this country. TODAY, there is NO CIVIL DEFENCE PROGRAM IN THIS COUNTRY! Only y2k preppers who realize that part of the nagging feeling in their gut, that will not go away, is due to the fact they realize this nation is incredibly known to be vulnerable to attack. Some of us realize that this vulnerability is PUBLIC INFO. to any of our nation's enemies!

Consequently, some of us will remain prepped for a VERY LONG TIME!

Our country is operating under the assumption that we will never, ever be attacked on our own soil. History shows this to be a very bad assumption to places like Rome, Carthage, etc.

I view our infrastructure like a shop full of fine crystal. Any war that reaches our shores will instantly result in untold deaths, since the food, medical, etc. only arrives just in time,...and may I add it also is at its upper limits of capacity!

Regards...and stay prepped!,

-- (He Who) Rolls with Punches (JoeZi@aol.com), January 10, 2000.

So TRUE -- a rudimentary civil defense program indeed. I predicted (I know, dangerous, eh?) that around April of this year, the .gov will actually begin promoting the idea of a "robust national infrastructure" and ENCOURAGE individuals and communities to establish a more prep-oriented life. Yeah, naive, I suppose.

Ironically, this has nothing to do with weakening JIT, of course. Once you've prepped, everything has to be rotated, eh? It's actually a support and backdrop to JIT supply chains.

Truth is, prepping is patriotic and never more so than during an era when, if our .gov is to be believed, our infrastructure (from grid to banking to defense) is at REAL threat (this very day) of being brought down by cyberterrorism.

I didn't say that. Milne didn't say that. Our own government has said that. Are they lying? Saying that to manipulate us? Speaking the simple truth? Who knows? But the statements are public record.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 10, 2000.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

I actually thought that the call from the government for increased levels of preparation by citizens would come very shortly after the rollover, as soon as the "no problems from Y2K" message had sunk in. This kind of preparation, with no fixed deadline, would be something that could be heated up or slowed down by manipulating the level of terror. The timing of the initial push would be to help keep the channels of distribution stoked if they went limp after folks breathe a sigh of relief over Y2K.

However, not nearly as many people prepared as it once appeared would do so. So perhaps it isn't necessary to encourage stockpiling as a means of shoring up the economy. But why not start to get people prepared anyway; starting small, such as with a push to really get everyone to have what they would need for the three day storm that they never did prepare for? This would still help the economy. Is there some down side to having people more prepared? Is it perhaps harder to control people who aren't in fear of losing their next paycheck?

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), January 11, 2000.