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Thursday, December 30, 1999

Y2K preparedness proponent suggests 'attitude adjustment'
Expect ongoing problems, says Cassandra Project founder

By JUDITH KOHLER
Associated Press Writer

DENVER (AP) -- A backup supply of water, a few days worth of food, batteries and flashlights will come in handy in case of Y2K-spawned power outages and food shortages. But Cathy Moyer says the best protection might be the right attitude.

Moyer is co-founder of The Cassandra Project, a nonprofit group promoting individual and community preparedness for any problems caused by computers' changeover to 2000. The computer systems designer has been sounding the alarm for more than 10 years.

With 2000 looming, though, Moyer is looking beyond Jan. 1 to late January, February and March. That's when low-level glitches could build up and start rippling through people's lives.

Her advice: "Get an attitude adjustment. Expect there to be ongoing problems. Don't stress too much about it. Take reasonable and responsible action."

In other words, to be Y2K-compliant, don't be Y2K-complacent. Don't be lulled into thinking the threat is gone if midnight comes and goes and the lights are still on, the water is still flowing and grocery stores and gas stations are open for business.

"I think most of us who've been pretty active in this really believe that the biggest impact is going to be felt in late January, February, March, not early January," Moyer said. "It's an accumulation. You have a little problem here and here and here and you have a supply chain that has 10 points on it.

"It's an efficiency problem, so you get this ripple effect," she said.

Other potential pitfalls are what Moyer calls computer-code "cul de sacs," the nonroutine computer functions performed by businesses and governments that may have been overlooked when information systems were upgraded.

"It's really easy to miss these code cul de sacs, just as it's easy to miss when driving by them," Moyer said. "So if it affects you, but not your neighbor. It doesn't affect your business, but affects your home."

That's not to say there won't be scattered power failures or water system breakdowns when "99" rolls over to "00."

"But do I think they will be universal, widespread and sustained? No," said Moyer, adding some areas, mostly rural, might be less prepared than others.

When Moyer launched The Cassandra Project with Paloma O'Riley of Boulder in 1997, the goal was to raise awareness, provide an information clearinghouse and represent "the credible center" on Y2K. The objective was not scare-mongering.

"What would a reasonable person do to prepare for Y2K?" was their question. All kinds of answers and opinions can be found on the Web site, www.cassandraproject.org, which Moyer said has received as many as 500,000 "hits" a month from people across the country.

Interest trailed off in the summer when businesses and governments started saying their systems were Y2K-compliant in what Moyer calls "don't-worry, be-happy" reports. Then stories started surfacing about problems related to the programming changes that allowed computers to recognize "00" as 2000 rather than 1900, she said.

Traffic on the project's Web site and e-mails and phone calls to Moyer at her 20th-floor, downtown Denver office -- Suite 2000 -- have picked up again.

Moyer has been talking about pending programming problems since 1987, but few took the warnings seriously. Attitudes started changing in the early to mid-1990s.

Moyer and O'Riley, a former risk manager for the Navy, named their organization after a mythological figure blessed with the gift of prophecy but cursed by the gods, who made sure no one believed her. Moyer and O'Riley wanted to encourage people to band together in support groups, a bottom-up approach.

Boulder was one place where that tack took hold. County and city officials joined forces with community activists in the Boulder County Y2K Community Preparedness Group.

"We determined pretty early if something fairly significant were to happen, such as power outages that affect everyone, it's not going to be possible for any governmental entity to provide food, clothing and shelter for everybody," said Richard Varnes, Boulder's Y2K project manager.

Varnes will be on the job at the county's emergency center New Year's Eve, but he doesn't anticipate turmoil. "I expect a really boring evening."

People should keep in mind that glitches may occur during the next few months, Moyer said.

"Expect something Y2K-related to cause some kind of effect in your life," she said. "If that's your expectation and something Y2K-related happens, you're a lot less likely to react out of fear or anger and we're all better off."

[ENDS]

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), January 09, 2000

Answers

Its ironic you posted something from the Glenwood Post since I live in Glenwood Springs. The only thing I use that worthless rag for is the yard sales and since its non-yard sale season I don't read it now.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), January 09, 2000.

This article is like a major sign-post on the Y2K highway explaining what is just ahead; a wake-up call that it is once again time to "hit the road" after a brief and unexpected slumber. Prepare for disruption.

-- Patrick Lastella (Lastella1@aol.com), January 09, 2000.