Y2K--Whats Next?

Now that Y2K has arrived, what happens next?

I mean, the computer systems that drive our techno-civilization havent crashed en masse--true, there were some rather large glitches here and there, like those UK point-off-sale terminals not accepting debit/credit cards and causing many retailers to get stung badly., but hardly the end of the world.

Has anyone checked out http://www.garysouth.com yet? Thats a good one.

Okay, so Ed Yourdon and Gary North, what do we do? Hold our breath, lock and load, dig in, straighten the pins and stack the magazines for Y2K01?(Hey, anyone recall 2001 A Space Odyssey? Brilliant special effects, although a bit esoteric toward the end.)

As for me, I stayed up in Northern AZ during New Years, sacked out early, and celebrated New Years Eve home alone with just me and my Sammy-cat who adopted me over Thanksgiving.(He came prowling round meowing piteously, looking for someone to feed him and shelter him; Im a sucker for cats so I did--some bastard dumped him--I know because the PD animal control, local pound and local animal&wildlife society dont have a missing-pet report that matches him, so now I have been adopted by a cat.)

I maybe missed out on some job opportunities, but at least I avoided the barrage fired by all the idiots in Phoenix who salute the New Year with considerably more than 21 guns. I shot a bullet in the air; it fell to earth--in someones hair... But not mine, thank God.

-- Marc V. Ridenour (marcvridfenour@hotmail.com), January 09, 2000

Answers

I'll tell you the same thing that I was trying to tell everyone BEFORE the rollover: make your own assessment of the situation, make your own evaluation of the risks that you face in Northern AZ, re-evaluate what's at stake (in terms of the safety and comfort of yourself and your loved ones), and then make your own decision.

I think many of us (myself included) have been so brainwashed by Hollywood disaster movies that we're not willing to describe something as a "disaster" unless it has truly global, epic proportions -- e.g., "the end of the world," as you put it in your comments above. Meanwhile, the government and PR spokesmen are describing the various Y2K incidents we've seen as "minor" and "local," which we all interpret as "it happened somewhere else, to somebody else, and it didn't affect ME." But everyone operates their day-to-day lives on a "local" basis -- so if some Y2K incident occurs in your back yard, it could have quite an impact on you, even if it doesn't have an impact on me. It appears, for example, that a few thousand people in Oregon are not going to get their food stamps and welfare checks on time; and while that's not the end of the world, it may not be something that you can shrug off if you've got three hungry kids, no food in the refrigerator, and no money AT ALL in your wallet. You and I can talk about this in academic, theoretical terms because it's not happening to us ... at least, not this time, not until a "local" Y2K event DOES happen in our own back yard.

The question of whether a Y2K incident is "minor" or "major" is a question of degree. I used the term "disruption" deliberately in the essay I wrote called "My Y2K Outlook: A Year of Disruptions, A Decade of Depression." The worst-case scenario that some of us were terrified might possibly occur over the rollover weekend was a DISASTER, not a disruption. In my case, I was not expecting a national power blackout or a complete collapse of the telecommunications network; but I was seriously worried about the possibility of a lethal terrorist attack in New York City or Washington, or a lethal explosion/leakage in one of the 66,000 toxic chemical plants in this country, or one of the 432 nuclear power plants around the world. We were lucky: we had only 7 "minor" incidents in U.S. nuke plants, and only 9 such incidents in Japan, and only ... who knows how many? ... in Eastern Europe and other parts of the world.

No devastating disasters occurred, thank goodness, so as far as I'm concerned, we're now in the era of "disruptions." I got an email note last night indicating that the Grassroots Information Coordination Center (GICC) has logged some 600 Y2K incidents during their first week, which they're now scrambling to confirm. I have no way to prove this, but my personal hunch is that there are 10 times more incidents NOT being reported than those that are -- either because the incident is considered too embarrassing, or too minor, or it simply doesn't occur to the people involved to report it anywhere. And if the Gartner Group folks are at all accurate in their prediction (which may or may not be the case), we should have expected only 10% of the Y2K incidents to occur on or around the rollover date. That implies that we could be dealing with a grand total of 60,000 incidents before things calm down toward the end of the year. We can only hope that none of these is global, catastrophic, and life-threatening.

Beyond that, I can personally hope that none of the 60,000 incidents affecst my life, and you can hope that none of them will affect your life. But they're going to affect someone, somewhere -- and it simply suggests that each of us should do our own risk/reward calculation to determine how best to cope with the situation.

A lot of incidents have been posted here in recent days which have caused others to ask, "Why do you think this is Y2K-related?" The people who are affected by the incident might respond, "Who cares whether it is or isn't?" For example, there's a thread somewhere near this one in which we learn that the cockpit computer on a Boeing 777 apparently froze up in Dubai yesterday, causing some 200 people to be delayed for five hours until a replacement 777 could be brought in. Those 200 people have suffered a 5-hour delay regardless of whether it eventually turns out to have been a Y2K-related problem or not -- and chances are that nobody will ever tell them whether it was, nor would they know whether they could really trust the answer.

For those 200 people, the operative lesson to be learned from the experience is "Sh*t happens." All that really matters is whether it happens more often now than it did last year, and whether the disruptions are more severe and more costly than before. If so, make appropriate preparations and contingency plans.

In my case, this means that I schedule my business air-travel flights with MUCH more time between connecting flights (two hours instead of one hour); I make explicit contingency plans for the possibility of the flight being cancelled or re-routed to some other destination; and I assume that the airline WILL lose my luggage. This is pretty much the way I operated back in the '60s when I first started traveling on business; I eventually got sloppy and took more risks in the 90s, because it appeared that things had gotten more reliable and more efficient. But now, my own experience tells me that sh*t happens more frequently than before -- whether or not it's Y2K-related -- and I've adjusted my behavior accordingly.

As for the preparations some of us made SPECIFICALLY for Y2K ... well, again, it's a personal decision as to whether you think the risks have been eliminated completely, now that we've experienced the first full week since rollover. I don't think it has to be an all-or-nothing decision, and I don't see why so many of us feel compelled to make such a decision NOW, rather than next week or next month. If you've got extra food that's going to spoil in the next couple of days, then you need to do something with it; and if you bought supplies (e.g., batteries, candles, and flashlights) from a store that has a 10-day return policy, then maybe you need to make a decision about it right away.

But if you bought 10 gallons of bottled water, it's going to taste just as good next month as it does today. If you bought a generator, there's a good chance that part of the justification for getting it is that power failures occur all the time in your region -- so if it's not Y2K, it will be an ice storm or a tornado or some other incident that will cause you to start using it.

In my case, I spent about $50 on powdered milk, because I thought the risk of disruptions in food distribution (and specifically, distribution of fresh milk) warranted a $50 investment policy. Powdered milk was a staple part of my diet when I was a kid in the 1950s, and I absolutely LOATHE the stuff. So, for reasons that are probably more emotional than rational, I'll probably take the powdered milk down to the local food bank. But the rest of the food that I bought is (a) food that my family would be eating anyway, like tunafish, and/or (b) canned food that will last for years.

As I gradually become convinced that the frequency, severity, and risk of disruptions is reduced, I'll make corresponding reductions in the size of the food stockpile. But, unlike my before-Y2K lifestyle, I'll never reduce it below some prudent threshold. Y2K or not, sh*t happens.

As for you and everyone else: to each his own.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 09, 2000.

I have ZERO information about the situation in Brazil. My wife tells me that there is an article by Barnaby Feder in the on-line version of today's NY Times that offers several explanations for the apparent success of several countries around the world that we had thought to be high-risk. She copied-and-pasted it to me in an email; sorry, I don't have the link...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 09, 2000.

Marc,

It's true that there has been less
disruption than many had predicted.
But on another note those glitches
that have and are happening are not
being reported. The FAA admitted that
they were not reporting problems because
they didn't want to scare anyone.

FAA Y2K Report Withheld

The DOD lied about their spy sattelite

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), January 09, 2000.

Oops. hit the submit while trying to
change a spelling error.

There is a big incentive for companies
to keep quiet about the problems that
they are having. Because of this, it is
hard to discern exactly how bad the problem
really is.

It is also too early to make any judgements.
Many glitches will continue to crop up through-
out the year. The snow job about "Y2K being
a non-event so turn in your food to the food
agencies" has worked pretty well. By the end
of next month if things are still running smooth
I will be ready to accept that it was a minor
problem, but definitely not a "non-event".

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), January 09, 2000.

---we upped our preps from what was a "normal" 3 month supply of basic staples, to enough to carry several people completely through an entire gardening season. We also relocated to a much safer and rural location, after 15 years near atlanta, which I grew to loathe. I don't see any of this as a negative, in fact, happier than ever at our level of preps, we have started to rotate the older food now, and will maintain it at this level. Added to firewood stash, enough for three winters is goal, and additional propane tanks, and finally got a solar panel and some batts for eventual completely off grid electric. We live in an RV, but it's quite pleasant, really, makes you keep more organized. We have a shed we borrowed for storing our gear and supplies. Y2K was a catalyst for me to speed up what I was planning on doing anyway, and so far, it's been a positive experience. We've experienced some minor glitches here, and have heard of some middle level size ones locally. I'm of the opinion that the data bases and patches have "almost" worked so far, but am still monitoring the situation all the time, because this whole y2k "thing" just hasn't added up, absolutely no one really nailed it on what happened, especially world wide, so the real long term problems remain to be seen or felt, my opinion only.

plus, international events are not looking good at all, there's some serious war preps and threats developing along the old cold war communist axis, with some newer players, and there's the wild cards of the more radical states and groups having access to weapons of mass destruction. So, Survivalist Lifestyle is here to stay, and only improved upon, here at the zog's.

zoggus preparedus

-- zog (zzoggy@yahoo.com), January 09, 2000.

Thanks Ed Yourdon for the great post. What do you think about the Brazilian banks and manufacturing? Did they really get it fixed in such a short time, or are they headed for big trouble?

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), January 09, 2000.

Thanks E, for a great post.

Did you read your own book, though?

Will your intellectual honesty let you pretend "we could be dealing with a grand total of 60,000 incidents" (some of which may be be quite harmful) is pretty much in line with the overall tenor of your prior assessment? Surely over that period of time there must be a cumulative total of computer-related problems in the hundreds of thousands, some of which may be quite harmful, and we'll muddle through them without letting them take away the proper focus from the rest of our lives.

Plane delays, lost luggage, etc etc are exactly the kind of Y2K nuisances reasonable insight would have predicted, and it's nice to see you figuring that out--now.

As for the big stuff--it's wrong for you to perseverate about it until something happens that you can tie in to an "I told you so". Even a blind squirrel may find an acorn, but I think it's time to read your pre-Y2K works with the perspective of a naive reader listening to his teacher. Then you need to have the honesty to stop spinning.

-- I'mSo (happy@prepped.com), January 09, 2000.

Don't know if this belongs here, but I don't have any "buyer's remorse" over anything I purchased "Just in case."

Well, heck, maybe one item. It's a big honking item, but it only cost 19 dollars. I'll probably figure out a way to use it in my garden.

Anyway, for a lighter side view of all of this, I added a new category to the "Toilet Paper Chronicles" discussion forum. Feel free to stop in, and check out the "Roll Call" thread while you're there.

The new category is called "The Preps that Ate my House"

:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), January 09, 2000.

Marc, we are in a period of quiet disruptions. The affected businesses don't tell us, because they don't want to appear stupid or lose their customers. I hear lots of this and don't write about it because what's first hand for me is second hand to others. And I don't have to PROVE ANYTHING! It will work it's way through the system. Outcome? You guess.

-- W (me @home.now), January 09, 2000.