How to avoid being wrong

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

It's easy. Just watch.

BEFORE rollover, Milne wrote:

"People are going to end up seriously dead over this one. The blackouts are NOT going to occur ONLY in East Cupcake or Pukeweasel, Michigan. They are going to be in NY City, LA, Chicago, Boston, Houston, Philadelphia, etc. Water will be out. Sewerage, out.

New York should just change its name to "West Beirut' right now."

AFTER rollover, he SAYS he wrote:

"It is the economy, stupid. The potential consequences of Y2K were only the match to the fuse. Of course, I said that repeatedly, over and over, ad infinitum."

What Yourdon takes several very long essays to accomplish, Milne has boiled down to the essence in just a few words. Masterful.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 08, 2000

Answers

You're shooting fish in a barrel, Flint. I just can't see the fun in doing so. Nonetheless, if anyone's earned the right to point a finger, you have.

Enjoy.

-- Bingo1 (howe9@shentel.net), January 08, 2000.


The only way to avoid being wrong is to never have any opinions in the first place.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), January 08, 2000.

Flint -

Get over it.

-- Me (me@me.me), January 08, 2000.


Exactly. Never stand up for what you believe and you'll be safe from ridicule.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 08, 2000.

Nefarious Rumor blatantly blabs that Pukeweasel, Michigan, is so named from the frequent ingestion of roadkill improperly cooked.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 08, 2000.


Mara:

Are you kidding me? I'm ridiculing him for NOT standing up for what he used to believe. And rather than admit it, he now tries to weasel out of it. Contrast Milne with 'a', who came out standing straight and tall.

Do you seriously propose that the way to "stand up for what you believe" is to start claiming you never actually said what you said after you're completely discredited?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 08, 2000.


I love your first question, the rest is a bit sarcastic but it fits.

I avoid being wrong by saying nothing unless very sure, but in some cases you have to act based only on what you know, right?

Now if we could know what effect contamination and uncorrected data will have over the next six months then we could all be Jedi's, right?

-- Will (righthere@home.now), January 08, 2000.


Flint,
In another thread, Paul Milne writes, "Yes, I thought that there was good reason to believe that we would see catastrophic failures from the onset. There were none reported, and I was wrong on THAT score." Could you provide a link to the full text from which you've excerpted the "AFTER rollover" quote.

-- David L (bumpkin@dnet.net), January 08, 2000.

David:

OK, here you go. It starts out with Milne making a post in which he tries to change the subject:

---------------

Meanwhile, experts say the jury is still out as to whether Wall Street is witnessing the unraveling of one of the greatest bull markets ever.

The selloff has raised worrying questions because the bull market has been likened to "Tulipomania" - the mother of all market bubbles that sent tulip prices in Holland rocketing 6,000 percent from 1634 to 1637 before crashing. But now, it's Internet stocks instead of tulips.

The tulip boom came undone as prices dropped 90 percent after the "biggest fool" had paid the highest price. Suddenly, people realized that they were not investing, but rather betting, on tulip prices.

Indeed, history may be repeating itself. Internet stocks have shot up 1,000 percent or more even though the majority of them have not earned a penny.

Internet stocks recently have made a lot of people rich and that's apparently all that matters to investors. The people who have struck gold over the past couple of years have been ignorant about the meaning of stocks' valuations.

----------------

Now Bob Brock replies (NOT the same Bob Brock who posts on TB2K):

And the relationship to Y2k is?

------------------

And Milne responds:

Precisely the same relationship that I have stated over and over and over from the beginning, which you have clearly missed because you are an imbecile.

It is the economy, stupid. The potential consequences of Y2K were only the match to the fuse. Of course, I said that repeatedly, over and over, ad infinitum, and apparently you missed that, too.

------------------

David, you will note I omitted the usual gratuitous insult in my quote. Otherwise, there it is in its entirety. Dated today, January 8.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 08, 2000.


Flint:

In the more than a year that I have been posting here { O.K., I don't have the time to do it on the regular basis that you do}, I have never disagreed with you [with the exception of the time that I pointed out that you and Cherri know nothing about salmon], but this time, I disagree. How? The statement about Paul's description of NY becoming Beirut being wrong. Y2K didn't make it that way. The first time I went there, the bank on the other side of the street was bombed by terrorists and someone was killed in the station near the hotel. I was there when the WTC bombing occurred, etc. I don't go there that often, so I assume that these things occur on a regular basis . Does this scare me? No! Driving I-5 or I-405 in Seattle does. To each his own.

Best wish

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), January 08, 2000.



Flint:

By-the-way; I have had discussions with Paul on several forums. I have respectfully disagreed with some of his conclusions. He has always responded in a polite way. [I was right about all of my computers. I have know way of knowing about all of the other computers in the world.] Paul has never called me a moron. I feel left out. Flint, could you call me a moron and make me one of the club.

Best wishes,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), January 08, 2000.


Z, you moron, I can't recall Milne ever disagreeing with anyone respectfully. Feel better now? [grin]

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 08, 2000.

Jeeez Flint, this is the bravest thing I've ever seen you do. You're actually accusing someone else of weaseling out of their statements, when you yourself are the Master Worm, slithering between varying opinions but never holding one of your own. Someone who says he believes that Y2K will cause problems and has himself prepared, and then on another thread saying that it is all foolhardy nonsense. Quite the shape-shifter aren't you?

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), January 08, 2000.

Hawk:

I overestimated the problems, and my preparations were completely unnecessary as it turns out. I sincerely apologize to anyone whom I may have misled. My take was that there were significant problems but that these were being highly exaggerated. Oops, turns out the problems weren't nearly as significant as I thought. Turns out Y2K Pro did a better job of analysis than I did, and I thought he was an idiot. I was wrong, I got fooled too, just not so badly as some.

I'm not denying I said what I did, and I'm not claiming I actually *meant* something different either. I hope I can learn from my mistakes and do better in the future. How about you?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 08, 2000.


Flint:

Yes, thank you. Yes, my present position is such that I must be very careful with my words. Therefore, I have learned the "no content" speech. I'm sure that you know about it.

Best wishes,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), January 08, 2000.



I do wish you folks would quit bad mouthing the Weasel clan, and poor old cousin Puke in particular. Life ain't easy for a Weasel as it is, without you folks calling each other names and then trying to associate the worst of human traits with being a weasel.

An' fer alla yer infermation, Puke don't live in Michagan, either.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 08, 2000.


Flint,

How long are you staying?

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 08, 2000.


Ken:

Depends on my attention span, I suppose. I don't plan any formal announcement of my intention to drop out, but I wander off when my interest wanes. Depends if there are interesting conversations going on, on any topic. By now, it should be clear that even if I don't know all about everything (except salmon), I can fake it well enough to provoke sometimes thoughtful replies, and learn for real. That's one of the things friends are for.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 08, 2000.


Flint said >Turns out Y2K Pro did a better job of analysis than I did, and I thought he was an idiot. I was wrong

Flint, you were not wrong. Y2K Pro was, and is, an idiot.

-- (TrollPatrol@sheesh.now), January 09, 2000.


Idiocy aside, Pro was a pain in the ass. All prepers, including you Flint, are thought by him to be selfish, hoarding cretins out of touch with His message of sharing. Easy position to have when all you have to share is computer time.

-- Carlos (riffraff1@cybertime.net), January 09, 2000.

Y2K Pro:

"the trailer-park endomorphs that I got all frothy about". You will be hearing from the STOPE [society of trailer-park endomorphs]. They do not like to be ridiculed and can become somewhat nasty.

Best wishes,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), January 09, 2000.


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