From TimeBomb2000 list....

I'm issuing a precise, date-specific PREDICTION for Y2K nuke problems....

Well, since it is true I really didn't show up till after the rollover, I basically put nothing on the line beforehand.

So, to show I'm not a big wimp, I'm making a precise, date-specific prediction regarding US Nuclear Reactor shutdowns.

I predict that between now and the end of 1/31/2000, there will be no more than eight US Nuclear reactor shutdowns. As based on

http://www.nrc.gov/NRR/DAILY/drlist.htm

Criteria: I'm only counting (and I've only counted these in my previous posts of comparisons) shutdowns (they all will have a "SCRAM" code in the event report) of OPERATING reactors, or reactors in startup that have some level of power reached.

I am not counting SCRAMs of reactors already in cold shutdown, or SCRAMs of reactors in refueling. (None of those this year but a few in previous Januaries.)

In 1999, from 1/7 to 1/31, there were four reactor shutdowns, including two on 1/23 alone.

In 1998, from 1/7 to 1/31, there were 4 reactor shutdowns.

In 1997, from 1/7 to 1/31, there were 6 reactor shutdowns and 5 shutdowns in 10 days, from 1/22 to 1/31.

We've been told over and over again, since there were not massive problems instantly after the rollover, that Y2K problems would "cascade" and slowly build up over time. Hence, 1/7 to 1/31, theoretically, should be a period where we see evermore US reactor shutdowns, if Y2K IS a serious US reactor problem.

Considering we had 6 shutdowns in that period in 97, One would think that 9 or more shutdowns in 2000 would at least hint at systemic problems.

(Personally, mathematically, I think it would be easily possible to get 10 or more shutdowns in the period at random, based on dumb luck, but I'm willing to take that chance.)

If there are 9 or more shutdowns I'll NEVER post on this board again after 2/01, and I'll leave by posting a doomer message where I admit they were all correct and society is finished.

If I'm right, we all agree that US nuke power is a total non-issue.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 07, 2000

-- Sheri Nakken (wncy2k@nccn.net), January 07, 2000