Comeau's Stock Market Predictiongreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Gary North recently sent out a Reality Check and made reference to a stock market prediction by Jean Comeau which was based on technical analysis. I recently received a copy of Mr. Comeau's position and am crossposting it here. If I understand his work correctly, we are facing a Dow Jones decline of about 5,763 points or a Dow at 5806 (the advance from the June 1932 Dow at 43 points to projected high of 11569 or 11,526 points divided by a 50% retracement equals 5,763 point decline). If he is correct, we will see the fireworks very soon perhaps in late January or early February.
If Mr. Comeau is correct, I'm glad I have food stored.
My name is Jean Comeau from Quebec, Canada and I am a commodity trading advisor (CTA) registered in Chicago. I have studied the stock market in as technical way for over 25 years and with a detailed technical analysis which follows, I have come to the conclusion that a stock market crash this year is inevitable.
The Dow Jones Industrial average should hit 11550 to 11600 points on an intraday basis and a crash will then be triggered. Since we are almost there, I took the liberty to write the following as to perhaps help others to make a decision in regards to whether stay in or bail out of the market before the iceberg is finally hit...
In order to understand more clearly the main core of the following analysis, I shall begin by refering to poineers (sic) in terms of researches in the technical analysis field.
ELLIOT (Wave Theory): a market trend usually moves in 5 waves UP and then 3 waves DOWN and so on...
FIBONNACCI (Perfect Numbers): .382 and .618 1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-144 etc... These numbers play a major role in technical analysis of any sort when it comes to mathematical calculations.
W.D. GANN (Square Rule): Time and price (space) meet at a turning point or as in this case the square root of 34 as it will be demonstrated.
Now, let us go back in 1929 to possibly obtain better comprehension of the last major WAVES DOWN of the crash that occurred then and realise why the enormous potental for it to repeat is just around the corner.
CRASH OF 1929 - 3 waves down
October 1929 = High or end of previous major 5 waves up = Dow touches 382 points or Fibonnacci .382
CRASH - Wave 1 = Within 2 months from the high (382), the Dow touches 200 for a total move down of 182 points.
CRASH - Wave 2 = Within the following 6 months, the market recovered to 290 or 90 points gain. Here, notice that half of the retracement is made back up from the original 182 points down(wave 1).
CRASH - Wave 3 = Finally in June 1932 (after 34 months from the high), the market touches the 43 points level and establish the end of the major bear market.
Note: For any wave to be confirmed as fitting the picture, the market will usually and normally retrace half of the last move either up or down from the previous major low or high which it actually did crash - Wave 2.
NOW, ON THE WAY UP...
WAVE 1 = 1972 (last quater) D.J. hits 1051
WAVE 2 = 1974 (last quater) D.J. hits 577
In this case, the total move down is 474 points or half retracement from 43 (1932 low) to (1972 high) 1051.
WAVE 3 = 1897 (August) D.J. hits 2746 (intraday basis)
WAVE 4 = 1987 (October) D.J. hits 1616 (intraday basis)
In this case, the total move down is 1130 points or half retracement from 1974 low or 577 to high of 2746.
WAVE 5 = WHEN DOW JONES HITS 11550 TO 11600 POINTS, END OF MAJOR BULL MARKET, PERIOD.
We achieve our goal by using Fibonnacci numbers as follows:
Wave 1 or 1972 = Fibonnacci number 3 times 339 which is the total down move of the last crash (1929) totals up to 1017 plus 43 (crash low) equals 1060 and the actual high in 1972 was 1051.
Wave 3 or 1987 = Fibonnacci number 8 times 339 equals 2712 plus 43 (crash low) equals 2745 and the actual high in 1987 was 2746.
Wave 5 or 1999 = Finonnacci number 34 times 339 equals 11526 plus 43 (crash low) equals 11569.
Also note: W.D. Gann Square rule is now in full strength 34 times 340 (square root of 34) = 11560. Note that he number 339 was rounded up to 340. When that number is hit, the 3 waves down will be in an effective mode. We are to expect then that THE MARKET WILL DROP FROM 5500 TO 6000 POINTS within the following 2 months (half of retracement of full move from 43 to 11569) which will signal the very next GREAT GREAT DEPRESSION and a rendez-vous with destiny and Y2K...
There are many more techincal analyses that add up to similar results which also reveal the exact same story. At this point, this present exercise seemed to me more realistic for an immediate comprehension of the matter.
Ex. Twice 34 (Fibo) years from 1932 to 2000
13 (Fibo) years from 1974 leads us to 1987 (Note a cycle bottom to top or top to bottom usually repeats only when properly measured. 13 (Fibo) years from 1987 leads us to 2000...
I sincerely hope that his will help,
best regards to all,
-- Sure M. Hopeful (SureM@hopeful.com), January 07, 2000
Hmmm, where does the Nasdaq and the S&P fit into this picture, were they around in 1929?
-- ~~~~~ (~~~@~~~.xcom), January 07, 2000.
Yes, Gary North was right about TEOTWAWKI so this must be true.
-- (Iemail@example.com), January 07, 2000.
Fibonacci sequences determine the patterning of everything from sunflower seeds on a sunflower to rates of growth in mammalaian organisims. The French are decades a head of the rest of the world in this "new mathematics", and most of the works in French have yet to be translated.
-- SH (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 07, 2000.
Jean Comeau is playing a numbers game of what worked in the past. As most of us know, the future actions of the market is not based on the past. You can add in other factors like, interest rate, market sentiment, earnings, construction, traders feelings, Santa Clause, cash flow, January effect, and the direction of the heard.
The one major factor is earnings and as long as they keep coming in, along with people pumping money into the market, the speculation that is currently going on, can continue.
A Market Crash is a very rare event. He might have produced a more credible theory if he said that we were going to have a market correction. A market correction would be one that drops 20-25% which is more likely. If I was to bet on a market correction, I would say that it will happen. It could happen this year, or next. Really, no one will know until after it has happened. Jean is not seeing any picture clearer than you or I.
If I was to speculate, I would say that the Technology shares are over priced. But that is just my thoughts.
-- Ned (email@example.com), January 07, 2000.
What a pile of crap. You can't lay any kind of template over what the market is doing now. The market is going where no market has ever been before. Therefore historical analysis is irrelevant.
The bubble needs a sharp pin - What that will be I have no idea. If the bug catches up to the oil supply that could be it or it may come from some totally unforeseen direction OR the pin may never show up. In other words, its 100% legalized gambling. The indian reservations are going to start losing business because its too easy to gamble in your own den/living room/office (NO SMOKERS EITHER).
-- Guy Daley (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 07, 2000.
FYI, this commentary by Comeau is being circulated by a number of lists concerned with the economy and stock market. Gary North just was another recipient, and the validity of Comeau's predictions rests solely with him.
In any event, his stock market prediction is clear, specific, and due to unfold very soon, so we will quickly see if he was correct or not.
If Comeau is indeed correct about a stock market crash, then some of the y2k preparations made by us will come in handy. Some won't be. Cash will be king, and most people it's servants. Even back in 1929, the economic consequences weren't readily apparent. Newspapers of the era referred to it as a recession, and the bank runs didn't start in earnest until later.
Today, the potential for a gut-wrenching Great Depression is even greater then you factor in the unbelievable amount of government, business, and personal debt. Even mainstream economists can't totally ignore the chilling comparisons, but quickly announce we have attained a new paradigm.
-- Sure M. Hopeful (SureM@hopeful.com), January 07, 2000.
Excellent analysis. The nice thing about the market is that you can make a fortune no matter which direction it goes.
WE KNOW Y2K PREDICTIONS ARE RIGHT!!
All we have to do is have the courage to take ALL our cash and pour it into short-selling! Rejoice, for our time is here. Those of us who have maintained our belief in Y2K Failures are about to get the best gift of all--Financial Reward and wealth beyond our wildest dreams. Those who have the money have the power. Look at this board to see how the infrastructure is crumbling!! Act on your convictions now.
FINALLY our time is at hand, and FINALLY we get the last laugh on the Pollys!!!!!
-- I Make (email@example.com), January 07, 2000.
Sure M. Hopeful, You mentioned you received a copy of this report, would you happen to have a number or website with some more info on this man and his theories. Thank you
-- (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 07, 2000.
There was some discussion of this on the Longwaves list. You can view the archives at: http://csf.colorado.edu/longwaves/glimpse.html
-- Danny (email@example.com), January 07, 2000.
I never cease to be amazed at what I see here! NATURALLY, it was the great predictor of the end of the world,Gary North whose track record on end of the world scenarios is absoloutely perfect. He's NEVER EVEN COME CLOSE! PERFECT RECORD! He's predicted it several times and given how exactly it would happen. Still, NOT EVEN CLOSE.
He is probably panicking thinking that his going to get a modern day stoning (something he advocates as punishment) with unopened cans of Spam if he can't keep you all scared of something and convinced that his scenario is "just a few days off now".
Again, I BEG YOU DOOMERS, go look at the mans background and his philosophy of Christian Reconstructionism. Those of you that know about it and choose to ignore it, please re-think your position. THose that know about it and agree with him 100% (on his religous ideas), get some help! Perhaps a de-programmer would be a wise investment! THose that do not know of his religous motivations for wanting to see society crumble, CHECK IT OUT!
Without a doomsday scenario his way of making a living and his ultimate goal of Christian Reconstructionism gaining control over Government are dead in the water. There is a reason he is distributing this tripe.
Best advice in the stock market, buy low, sell high. Make your own decisions!!! Look for credible sources. For all we know, this Jean Comeau, may be an unemployed Yak herder in Siberia. The fact North is touting him makes him very suspect in my book!
Sorry to be so blunt folks but Gary North used to amuse me. Now, he scares me and not because I beleive what he says. It is because so many others do!
-- DAVID (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 07, 2000.
Dow @ 11501 this afternoon trading................
-- kevin (email@example.com), January 07, 2000.