Sorry. You've lost your cred.greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
All these posts about Russia about to attack us, etc. etc. They have the same cred. as your doomer Y2K thoughts. RUBBISH!!!!!!!
-- Laughing (Let's email@example.com), January 07, 2000
Wait 'till the first missile hits your street.
-- JB (JohnBurgess@one.net.com), January 07, 2000.
Now why on earth would a heckler believe that anyone cares about what he thinks?
-- Ron Schwarz (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 07, 2000.
An American businessman in Moscow, the managing director of Matrix Technologies, recently described conditions in the Russian capital. He said the city is heavily patrolled by police and army units. Vehicles are routinely searched, papers are inspected, civil rights are violated. But Moscow's police are not simply looking for terrorists. They are also looking for "military-aged individuals" and persons with medical experience. These are being taken for military training as part of a "general preparation for war."
We know that the Russian military began to expand its manpower base in April, during the crisis in Kosovo. At that time nearly 170,000 new recruits were called up in a special Russian military draft. There were also reports that between 80,000 and 100,000 volunteers were recruited to fight NATO in the Balkans. Throughout Russia, as well as other former Soviet republics, there have been rumors that hundreds of thousands of convicts have been offered amnesty in exchange for military service. If you examine the naval and marine exercises of the past six months (especially in the context of the mobilization of Russia's Black Sea Fleet), one cannot escape the suspicion that naval and marine reserves have also been mobilized.
We know from Russian press reports that troops of the Interior Ministry and Federal Security Service were secretly mobilized in September. Exact numbers have not been published, though the strength of MVD and FSS reserve forces is probably well over 200,000. What we have inklings of, and what we read about in the Russian press, suggests a large-scale military preparation.
This preparation cannot be explained by the situation in Chechnya. After all, Chechnya is a small place, without a real army or air force. It should be pointed out that these Russian mobilizations are too large for the Chechen theater of operations.
It is remarkable, in this context, that we are constantly reading of the weakness of Russia's conventional armed forces. To give one example, we read in a Oct. 7 Reuters article by Martin Nesirky that "Russia now finds itself short of conventional weapons to fight Chechen guerrillas in its own backyard." Nesirky writes of a contrast between Russia's "creaking kit in the field and shining missiles in silos...." But this is an incorrect characterization. While it is true that Russia has announced plans to deploy a second regiment of Topol-M ICBMs in 99, and Russia's nuclear forces are wonderfully modernized, it is untrue that Russia's conventional forces lack equipment.
As it happens, we can deduce the minimum amount of military hardware the Russians are deploying by doing a little homework.
In November of 1990 the Kremlin signed the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty (CFE). This treaty limited the Russians to deploying 20,000 battle tanks, 20,000 artillery tubes, 6,800 combat aircraft, 30,000 other armored vehicles, and 2,000 attack helicopters west of the Urals. In this context, it has been widely acknowledged that Russia never conformed to the CFE Treaty. (Even the Encyclopedia Britannica has numerous articles acknowledging Russian noncompliance with CFE.) In fact, the Russian General Staff was blamed -- early on -- for sabotaging the treaty. The Kremlin has announced that it is presently exceeding CFE force limits due to the crisis in the north Caucasus.
The number of 20,000 tanks is a gigantic figure. It is several times the number of tanks used by Hitler to invade Russia in 1941. The number of 6,800 combat aircraft is also huge. If Russia is exceeding CFE limits in any of these areas then we cannot -- we must not! -- say that Russia has an under-equipped army.
The military mobilization in Russia is something real. The official reason for this mobilization is NOT TO BE TRUSTED. Far more power is being mobilized than would be needed to crush tiny Chechnya. So what is up? What are the Russian generals getting ready for?
Members of an American church, who recently returned from mission work in one of Russia's largest cities, reported contacts with Russian soldiers. These soldiers were "very disturbed" because they believed the present Russian mobilization is aimed at the United States -- not Chechnya. In a related report, a recent American visitor to Russia was privately informed by a Russian military officer that Russia had been preparing for war against America for the last 17 months.
Are these reports credible?
We have to be careful about embracing stories that confirm our worst fears. But if we look at such reports in the context of other information -- which is absolutely undeniable -- then we have to say that there is nothing inconsistent or surprising in the idea that Russia is preparing for war with the United States.
Russia's new ally -- China -- is also mobilizing. This is supposedly a coincidence. The Taiwan Straits crisis just happens to coincide with the Chechnya crisis. Therefore, the military mobilizations in both countries are supposedly justified. But, if we have any strategic sense at all, shouldn't we be questioning this coincidence? Shouldn't somebody in the Pentagon be whispering in the president's ear?
According to Eric Margolis of the Toronto Sun, President Clinton has ordered the Pentagon to send state-of-the-art night vision equipment to Russia for use in helicopter gunships. He is also having them send over military communications gear. It is odd, to say the least, for the United States to be sending military assistance to a country that has more tanks and combat aircraft than just about any country on earth?
Moscow's current disinformation campaign has worked wonders. Every American who bothers to watch the six o'clock news imagines that Russia has a military disaster on its hands. One hears, incredibly, that Russia might even lose the war! After all, Chechnya defeated Russia before. (One fairy tale sits atop another, each supporting the grand fiction of Russian weakness.)
Russia's filling up of tank and motorized rifle divisions is not something spontaneous and of the moment. Last summer Russia curtailed gasoline and diesel fuel exports, as well as exports of fuel oil. Almost a year ago Russia cut her oil exports by more than 25 percent, while increasing oil imports from Iraq. But Russia is supposedly broke! She desperately needs cash, and 45 percent of Russia's $80 billion in exports in 1997 came from fuel exports.
Why is this being done?
The truth is, a force exceeding 20,000 tanks and 30,000 armored personnel carriers can suck a lot of fuel. Let me suggest that Russia has planned the current mobilization for many months. Let me also suggest that the Kremlin wants to be assured of its military supplies. What we are seeing is not a panicked reaction to a few Chechen rebels and terrorists. It is a carefully prepared and well-organized war mobilization, involving countrywide civil defense drills and a massive roundup of military-aged men and medical personnel.
There was a large number of generals retained by the Russian military during its build-down. Shortly after, the Russian Defense Ministry announced plans to retire 300 generals and admirals by December. The Russians also announced that 17,000 colonels would also disappear by December.
It is a neat trick to claim you are exceeding the CFE force limits while getting rid of nearly half the colonels in the Russian military. Aw..... those humorous boys in the Russian Defense Ministry!! That's a great gag. Keep the jokes coming!
-- jenna (email@example.com), January 07, 2000.
-- Bob (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 07, 2000.
You won't find it so funny when your children are dead.
-- (email@example.com), January 07, 2000.
It's quite simple. The Russians have read the Art of War and the US is sleeping.
-- Deb Loftgren (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 07, 2000.
That's right, we are sleeping. Russia could march across europe, hop a boat and invade the us with their nicely gassed up tanks. or better yet, nuke us off the map without repercussions and then come over and take over the worlds strongest economy. no problem. With China it would be easier. They too could nuke us without repercussions. Or maybe those new superfastmissiles will get us while we sleep.
I think you all need a break from NewsMax.
-- Mike (email@example.com), January 07, 2000.
cred. - abbreviation used by those who do not know how to spell the full word:
(go, Ric...go, Ric... go, go, go, Ric)
You weren't around much in the '60's, huh, Laughing? It was a very hot Cold War and I don't believe they've thawed very much way up yonder in Russia. We have what's pretty close to our own little unapproachable regime right here in the USA!
-- Ric (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 07, 2000.