As a favor to 'a', Heeeere's Milne, from January 1998greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Yes, these are all from a single month. Enjoy!==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=314453802&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=24 You think that the government drafting geeks is far fetched? I don't. You think geeks will be getting $200/hr? I think they will be getting hardtack and beans. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=313979755&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=26 Many people relly (sic) don't think that the repercussions of y2k will get that bad. Just some 'disruptions' but folks will remain calm. ROTFLMAO ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=313979756&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=27 The millennium bug is likely to kill between 600 and 1,500 people in the UK and inflict an epidemic of litigation on healthcare organisations. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=314009861&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=34 If anyone can read this kind of information and really, honestly, with a straight face, believe that remediation has a snowball's chance in you-know-where to succeed, then they deserve all the disaster that they didn't prepare for. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=314029006&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=36 I have unabashedly said that Y2k will be the straw that breaks the camel's back as far as civilization is concerned. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=313225898&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=41 I think that by the end of 1998, the happy talk will give way to reality and people will not trust their hard earned money out of their hands, precipitating a collapse. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=313235231&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=45 Kozeriok:You then conclude that anyone who says "maybe it won't be so bad" is in denial or stupid.
Milne:In denial, definitely, stupid, not necessarily, but in your case, yes, stupid. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=312611094&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=66 Let me look into my crystal ball.....Jan 3 2000.
The executives at the cracking plant can't run the formerly computer controlled machinery.... ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=312378641.1&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=81 How bad? No US. No UK. No Japan. etc etc etc. Loss of 1/3 of the earth's population in 5 years. Money, or I should say 'federal reserve fiat paper', will be worthless except as toilet paper...I think that things will be in total chaos for years. Maybe five, then a slow return to some degree of law and order, if you call what we have, law and order. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=312543742&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=86 I am certain. You are not. YOU are the one with the problem, Not me. Part of my certainty is based upon the evidence that our utter dependence upon computers for every facet of our existence will come to an end...Check out where the food you have came from. I'll bet that none of it came from within a thousand miles of where you live ( Assuming we're talking about the US) Once transportation is knocked out, forget a food supply. It will be simple, kill or be killed. If you want food, you are going to have to be able to grow it yourself, or kill someone else for it. That is why you won't make it in a populated area. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=312588469.1&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=87 "Social Unrest" is a weak notion for what I am talking about. I don't call mayhem and killing for food "social unrest"...Wanting and not wanting aside, there is no doubt whatsoever that the supply chain will be busted. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=312079870&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=91 Big problems will raise their ugly heads on Jan 1 1999...This is going to make the 1930's look like Disneyworld. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=312001948&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=99 Only wishful thinking could convince someone that remediation efforts will be of any 'ultimate' value. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=319407449&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=102 You are hopelessly deluded...There is no solution to the remediation. It is failed...I hope that you can feed your children platitudes. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=319407450&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=103 It *is* the end of the world *as we know it*. You think that it will run on much the same way, but impaired. That is a gross misunderstanding. Too bad that you will find out too late ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=319421357&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=105 Civilization is going to collapse. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=319177452&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=111 The overall picture of total dependence upon technology, minimal remediation world wide, lack of contingency planning, virtual ignorance of the embedded chip problem, and the human propensity for denial is more than conclusive that a catstrophe will occur. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=319182068&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=112 Y2k Pollyannnas are the 'Neville Chamberlains of the 90's' ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=319259498&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=113 You will be in deep kimchee if you don't prepare for a worst case scenario. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=319263093&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=116 There is no doubt within a moral certainty that the computing infrastructure will collapse. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=318886290&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=118 Bryan (Cowan), you are entitled to your opinion. 'My' opinion is that you won't make it past the first week. [Still out there, Bryan?] ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=318998991.1&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=121 The survivors will be able to pick up the pieces and move on, but not on any level comparable to today. There is not going to be anything left to rebuild. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=318648485&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=125 Believe me, people will panic. This is not to say, by any means, that a panic is desirable. But panicking is part of human nature. A panic will occur. It is not far in the offing. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=318653447&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=126 Hugo says that the probabilities for success are low.
The results will be catstrophic. Protect yourselves now by stocking up on food. Nobody else is going to give you and your family their food when the supply chain is broken. Buy food before the masses find out what is going on. When they find out, they will panic. It will take only a small amount of people to trigger supply deficiencies. This is not scaremongering. It is common sense. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=318668934&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=127 Six months ago, the 'I' word, 'inevitable' would have been enough to get you charged with sedition by the Pollyannas. Now They are saying that public sector failures are inevitable. This may sound bad to some, but the news will get a hundred times worse. Costs are wildly underestimated. The whole magnitude of the problem was wildly underestimated. And, the consequences are equally, wildly underestimated. The only thing that is not underestimated, is that which is actually 'overestimated"; ie the probability of a 'successful remediation'. And that is 'nil' ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=318779263&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=134 What mushrooms are you smoking? The consequences are very predictable.... Put out the burning skyscrapers in NYC one at a time with a bucket brigade. Platitudinous moron. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=319024335&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=135 In article <34C8E3EB.6388@drivemycar.com>, toonces@drivemycar.com wrote: > > Seriously, if this is gonna be such a devistating event, what should I do to prepare? Say you're single, living in an apartment in Boston, should I find a mountain hideaway and disappear for a few years while the major cities burn to the ground? >
In a word...Yup ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=318122517&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=142 Kiss your butts good-bye...The mounting evidence is irrefutable. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=316307031&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=160 The bank runs will start long long before Jan 1 2000, when people find out that the banks can't keep track of their assets. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=315928867&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=165 The only problem is gonna be where to bury all the Polyannas. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=315624875&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=172 I think that when utilities go down and demand remains the same, you will have substations blowing all over the place. Where will the replacement parts come from? Who will deliver them? Who will go out and do the repairs? Meanwhile, back at the ranch: food grows scarce, riots break out, NYC is transmogrified into West Beirut. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=314992225&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=185 I previously posted that I believed we would have a crash in 1998, but I think that in light of these kind of recent developments it looks like much sooner rather than later... ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=320763249.2&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=207 There will be a complete collapse. Count on it. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=320327706&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=210 Tom, Bite me. There has not been any full swing and there wont be. That is the point. Which you refuse to see, despite the evidence. The evidence is CRYSTAL clear that their will be a complete collapse of the computing infrastructure. Period. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=320332819&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=211 Pollyannas will die by the truckload ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=320008462&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=215 > I had read it. As always, our interpretations differ. I happen to > agree with Rick Cowles: there is a 100% chance that a major portion of> the electrical infrastructure will be lost as a result of Y2K. A > recent post by him here made it clear that he specifically did not > mean 100% loss of the infrastructure, he meant what he says.
Exactly. And what part of " there is a 100% chance that a major portion of the electrical infrastructure will be lost as a result of Y2K." dont you understand? Only a denial head could read that and then discuss 'granularity'. ==========
http://x37.deja.com/[ST_rn=ps]/getdoc.xp?AN=320132960&CONTEXT=947105795.1872494632&hitnum=217 > Pollyanna showed that amidst feelings of doom and gloom, love can > overcome all (after all, in the end of the movie, Pollyanna triumphs). > Pollyanna is a hero!
First, get a real e-mail address. Second, use your own name. Third, Bite me, Pollyanna.
==========
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 06, 2000
Could someone please post the link here where Flint in 1999 predicted Bhopals, Chernobyls, disease, hunger, chaos, and in general a scenario worse than even I had envisioned.Flint, this is what you predicted. It is what I said was possible. I was the guy saying it would most likely result in a depression, remember?
Moron.
-- a (a@a.a), January 06, 2000.
Flint and *a*:Why is almost everyone becoming unglued on this forum?
-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 06, 2000.
a,The only difference is that Flint said he was worong.
-- Steve (sron123@aol.com), January 06, 2000.
Flint:This is pointless. The list (of which I am a member) of people who were sincere-and-wrong is long and dignified. The list of people who were right is unwritten, because Y2K isn't over yet...at least according to the experts!
Dinosaur:
Have you ever wondered why your mother got so da*m mad at you when she thought you were missing--only to have you glibly show up from "Johnny's" house? Me too.
It's because fear does not go away quickly. I was here on New Year's Eve, watching. I saw that MOST folks--polly, doomer and every variation--were afraid. When we saw that our worst fears about what COULD HAPPEN didn't happen, that built up fear changed to bewilderment, frustration and anger.
The result of releasing latent anger is what you've been reading. Be patient. It will fade away as time progresses. It already has started.
-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 06, 2000.
For some of us, this brief sampling is a trip down memory lane. For the rest, it's intended only for entertainment value.I must laugh at 'a', who mocked me for lo these many months for being a moron polly, and NOW he's mocking me for being even more of a doomer than he is. Orwell would be proud.
I did predict widely scattered catastrophes of up to Bhopal level a long time back, when things looked bleak. I sure am glad I blew that one!
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 06, 2000.
Bravo, Flint!
-- Celia Thaxter (celiathaxter@yahoo.com), January 06, 2000.
Steve: I have always expressed my predictions in the form of probabilities, and ever since I formulated an opinion back in October 1998, they didn't change. Regulars, ah except the pollies, will remember the table I often posted:
SCENARIO ADVOCATE CHANCE COMPARABLE EVENT Bump Koskinen 1% Asian Flu Recession Yardeni 28% 1972 oil embargo Depression Yourdon 50% 1930 depression Collapse Milne 20% Civil War Devolution Infomagic 1% Dark AgesNow you may understand why I am still here and why I unfortunately feel I may indeed be correct on the outcome of this crisis. You will find I referred to this crisis as the "Year 2000 Crisis", not the 1999, Jan 6th, or Jan-Feb Crisis.
You will see that I also stressed that y2k was not the major obstacle, only a catalyst of the coming problems, the most serious being economic (ah, from information I first learned from Milne, Ken). Readers will also recognize how I used to list the problems, in order of increasing severity (BTW, this is pulled from an email to Flint dated October 1998):
- Economic meltdown of global financial system at the peak of the largest speculative bubble and debt load in history
- Y2K disruptions that destroy the efficiency of modern society
- Increased militarism and terrorism
- Worsening environmental effects such as solar, deforestation, warming, overpopulation, pollution, climate, disease, etc.
But I must give Flint credit. At least he showed restraint and did not use pornographic language this time around.
dino: as I and others have said, this forum ceased to be a grassroots warning mechanism and turned into a psychology experiment around the November timeframe.
I have no regrets about posting Cory's and Paul's thoughts on y2k, because I and many others found them interesting, entertaining, and thought provoking. I guess I didn't post Kosky's and Yardeni's too much, but then again, I'm a doomer, remember?
-- a (a@a.a), January 06, 2000.
Agree with 'a' that long-range environmental trends currently look quite discouraging.But what I presented here are NOT predictions of eventual economic decline, due to an overheated market. These are "substations blowing all over the place." Very Very difficult to make the case that Milne was predicting an economic event in the face of this little sampling. Sure, if everything blows up the economy suffers. That's hardly economic analysis.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 06, 2000.
Flint:I would like to thank you for putting together such a well formatted post. Easy to read in this form. Fortunately, I have read most of the originals. Is the weather as wierd in AL as it is everywhere else.
Best wishes,,,
-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), January 06, 2000.
Revisionist historians.Milne and his echo, "a," have a clear record on Y2K. With each passing day, the linkage between Y2K and an economic downturn will become more tenuous. Of course, no matter what happens, "a" will find a place his economic continuum. It's the scattergun approach to forecasting.
It's like arguing with a man who says it's dark, only because he refuses to open his eyes. With all due repsect "a," you have never clearly articulated the structural weaknesses in the economy. Your high water mark was simply saying times are worse today than they were 25 years ago. Neither you nor Milne have engaged in serious economic discourse... it's just cut-and-paste from questionable sources. You may eventually be right, "a," but it will be accidental, not because you understood the economy.
-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 06, 2000.
Ken:You mean "accidently right" like the pollies were about Y2K? Show the class your wisdom and education--show us your predictions and their supporting verifiable facts and ironclad logic.
-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 06, 2000.
Ken, I really wish you'd stop blowing hot air. Go amuse yourself with Yourdon's latest essay then write a brilliant rebuttal to it like your hero Hoff.Oh, and Ken, do stick around for the next few months will you? Seeing y2k unfold through your eyes is going to be interesting.
-- a (a@a.a), January 06, 2000.
Ahh, Kurt, what a witty retort, and so Milne-like. Your mama must be proud."You mean "accidently right" like the pollies were about Y2K? Show the class your wisdom and education--show us your predictions and their supporting verifiable facts and ironclad logic."
So, the fact that you were incorrect and other people with differing viewpoints were correct is not, in fact, a matter of right or wrong but one of luck? Are you willing to say that if Y2K had unhinged the world over the last few days that your position would have been the "lucky" one?
I didn't think so.
-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 06, 2000.
a, you scratched the following:"Oh, and Ken, do stick around for the next few months will you? Seeing y2k unfold through your eyes is going to be interesting."
Same for you there, guy. See 'ya round the funny farm.
-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 06, 2000.
Hey Paul S.F.B. Neuhard: I see readin & writin wasn't offered to you as a package deal.
-- a (a@a.a), January 06, 2000.
Kurt, if you are really interested, I can provide you links to my specific predications and the rationale. Were they "ironclad?" Hardly. We were all making our best guesses based on limited information. This said, my predictions (and logic) have been proven superior to "a" and Milne... at least thus far. Now, pray tell, where are your posts from last year?"a," I doubted you were right, but you might have had the grace to handle the situation more like the "King of Spain." I can understand you being wrong... but why be militant?
-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 07, 2000.
All this arguing about who was right or wrong, I feel that I must point out that I was right from the very start. Yes, I was right! Yea Unk! Go Unk go!From the first I stated that I believed that Y2K would either be a huge deal, or not much of anything. Damn I'm good.
;-)
PS, please ignore the fact that I once believed that Y2K was more likely to hit big than small. I would prefer to concentrate on my predictions that make me look smart, rather than the ones that make me look dumb...Thank you. Please do not dredge any up....Thanks again.
-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), January 07, 2000.
Flint,Re Milne's comments: I think some were kind of innocuous, there were gratuitous personal attacks, off-the-wall predictions, and at least one outrageous comment that really disturbed me -- the one about people deserving disaster. Overall he does come across as a real hothead here. Maybe even worse, by that one comment. I'm also assuming that you've included all the context necessary for a reasonable off-the-cuff evauation.
Since I still haven't read much of his stuff, relatively speaking, I don't feel I can say more than this right now.
I could have missed something here, though. I did a little skimming.
-- eve (123@4567.com), January 07, 2000.
Of Paul Milne, I will use the words of Ben Franklin in describing John Adams, a man of whom no love was lost:"He is always an honest man; sometimes wise; but frequently out of his senses."
-- Buster Collins (BustrCollins@aol.com), January 07, 2000.