I posted this several weeks ago. Wait till the backroom systems try to process a weeks worth of bad data this weekend.

Week 1 Dec 31st-Jan 8th primary embedded failures (some water/sewer, chemical plants, manufacturing) - Unknown level of impact...could be a 1 (unlikely but possible) or a 7-10 (unlikely but possible) figure a general 2-3 in most areas but a 10 in others.

Week 2-14 The unraveling of the economy-JIT failures, processing, accounting glitches. Fuel goes through the roof... rationing is probable. Stock market contracts, puffs then implodes for 2 qtrs. minimum. Longer if fail scenarios in production facilities remain troubled. This will be a 5-9 on the scale. Oil and chemical plants hold the key here. 40% of small businesses have done nothing for y2k. 10% of these will fail outright within 6-12 weeks. 7-26 million will be added to the unemployment rolls by June 2000. Govt. steps in but can't stem the tide. National emergency declared in most states by mid Feb.

Week 15-52 Slow then moderate recovery mixed with new fail scenarios keep anxiety very high. Level drops some to 4-7. Market starts back on recovery but will take yrs to recover fully.

PS in two-three weeks I'll give my Kosky report and in spite of the above happening will give my happy faced all is well report.

-- Polly-Morphic Doomer (greenem31@aol.com), January 06, 2000

Answers

Your Kosky report will be simple.

"This unprecedented string of technological bad luck is a completely random chain of events, unrelated in any way to Y2K. We extend our sympathies to all those who suffer from the string of nuclear meltdowns, chemical plant explosions, refinery fires, blackouts, brownouts, bank runs, business bankruptcies, municipal water shortages and the inexplicable outbreak of falling airplanes. BUT YOUR GOVERNMENT HAS DETRMINED THESE EVENTS ARE NOT Y2K RELATED."

"Instead we have found that these events are a MEME which has infected the conciousness of everyone on the planet, causing them to imagine that terrible events are occurring that are related to the now-over Y2K situation. So severe is this MEME that some of the more seriously afflicted are even willing themselves to die from their imagined burns, poisoning, and accident injuries."

And so it goes...

WW

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 06, 2000.

Your week 1 prediction is/was "Somewhere between 1-10, kind of 2-3 but sometimes 10"?

You should go into the astrology business, but be careful to not evey specify exact numbers, like that final 10, because people like me will say: please give an example.

Please give an example of a "10" failure, whatever that means in an isolated context.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 07, 2000.