Stock Market: 1...2...3... You're Out : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

On a long drive today to ponder ongoing global market slide and offer the following for consideration and critique:

1. Investors are selling to lock in profits from recent runnup. Capital gains on sales not due until 04/15/01. (Capital gains tax could be omitted if Y2K bites databases later this year.)

2. Investors expect FED to raise interest rates at next Feb 7, 2000 Open Market Committee Meeting. Market is factoring in a 1/4 to 1/2% rise in interest rates. Given current activity some are concerned that FED may have to move prior to the 02/07/00 scheduled meeting.

3. The FED and many other Central Banks pumped Billions of cash into the markets in late December to address Y2K liquidity demands. Now they MUST pull that liquidity out of the market or risk very serious inflation. Much of the FED's cash liquidty injection of December 1999 was made via a limited time period repurchase agreement in which the FED traded cash for banks tresury bill holdings on the basis that shortly after Y2K the FED would return the T-Bills for cash. BUT, if the value of the T-Bills given to the FED in December drop in value prior to the close of the trade then the banks/brokerages/lenders that got cash would get more T-Bills back than they originally traded to the FED. Thus the banks might seek to depress bond prices and end up with more bonds than they started at no increase in capital outlay.

BUT bonds, stocks, gold, oil, nearly ALL investments are dropping in value - SO where is the money going?

Could we be seeing a sophisticated "bank run"?

Not one at your local credit union/savings and loan/drive up window/ATM but rather a collective action on the part of the most wealthy of the planet to liquidate assets in the world's markets. If so, investors could have their proceeds deposited into a money fund with checking feature.

If so,WHY?

Maybe TPTB 'knew' that 01/01/00 would be smooth sailing due to:

a. STAGED events televised by CNN, ABC etc. b. MANUAL operations. c. TIME it takes for glitches to manifest themselves into visible public impacts.

-- Bill P (, January 05, 2000



I love the way you think. Seriously...I couldn't have stated this in a better fashion. Just shy enough for a conspiracy theory but close enough to reality to peak my interest. And, I'm not making fun of you. It makes sense (to me). Tell me more.

-- Rob (, January 05, 2000.

Bill, interesting points. Don't know if you are right about the market, but I think that Y2K was an 'orchestrated' event, not a hoax.

Alice, get a life, plez honey!

-- Mello1 (Mello1@ix.netcom .com), January 05, 2000.

There was a thread that discussed the mechanics of a 'technical' bank run (large scale internal manipulations by money managers instead of the public) a few months ago...anybody remember the link?

-- a (a@a.a), January 05, 2000.

You "apologize" for being here?

Why not finish the job by jumping in front of a fast-moving train, you disruptive b*tch?

-- Ron Schwarz (, January 05, 2000.

Bill, very thoughtful piece. Please continue.

Sysops? Can anything be done about this troll? Every intelligent and thought provoking thread is being targeted and disrupted.

-- PA Engineer (PA, January 05, 2000.

Interesting, so what you're saying is that the Fed isn't sucking up all that extra liquidity, the big boys/girls are?

-- CD (, January 05, 2000.

That's one helluva a big mattress they must have.

-- CD (, January 05, 2000.

Well, shucks ... Do you guys read? It's clear to me that at least some of the stuff is going to Moscow, where the market index rose 19.85% just today alone, and did another 19% yesterday -- for a 2- day total of nearly 40%. That's FORTY PERCENT in two days. Show me where Janus Funds or Lou Navalier ever got those kind of numbers.


-- SH (, January 06, 2000.

boris yelstin retired December 31 and took up trading: called in all his retirement investments from the new york banks, and put them in the local markets.

-- mrunderhill (, January 06, 2000.

Are you saying it's sinister that the market should slump at the same time it does every year? Ha ha ha, that's the LAST thing we'd expect...

Oh, my mistake, it's going back up again. Looks like you're JAPD (Just Another Paranoid Delusional). :(

-- Servant (, January 06, 2000.

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