What's fishy here, anyway?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Yes, something is fishy, but people are looking in the wrong place. To sum up many of the 3000+ posts I've made here over the least year and more:

(1) Evidence was extremely carefully selected. Dire warnings were searched out and eagerly embraced, regardless of the source. Many were from people selling remediation services or preparation supplies, but that didn't matter. Many were anonymous and unverifiable, but that didn't matter either. 10Q and 10K reports were combed through, and anything that could be interpreted as supporting fear was selected out and presented. The other 99% was ignored. Those few companies who encountered problems trying to remediate or switch to new systems were paraded here endlessly and depicted as typical. The vast majority who had no such problems were ignored.

Good news (and there was plenty) was rejected for any handy reason. In those rare cases where people were brave enough to post it, those people were ridiculed, reviled and shouted down. Anyone who pointed this kind of thing out was invited to leave the forum, *even by the moderators*, and often with foul language.

(2) Interpretation of the evidence was incredibly one-sided. Just as a hint of the flavor of that interpretation, consider:

Both contingency planning and LACK of contingency planning was interpreted as bad news. Both small and large remediation budgets were interpreted as bad news. Both hiring and NOT hiring remediators was interpreted as bad news. The market going up, down, or neither were ALL interpreted as bad news. Both underrunning and overrunning remediation budgets was interpreted as bad news. CIOs and CEOs both leaving and staying on the job were interpreted as bad news. Both shortages and LACK of shortages of survival items (like generators and wood stoves and freeze dried food) were interpreted as bad news.

This list goes on and on. The point is that with few exceptions, those on this forum made a long, concerted and highly focused effort to FORCE reality to match their fantasies. Y2K problems were and remain a mild threat, with some more serious problems. But this forum, in general, did all they possibly could to exaggerate the potential y2k impacts beyond all rational recognition.

I believe it was important to listen to the warnings, though. There is absolutely nobody who knows how 4 decades of programmers just happened to mangle all the lines of code in the world, and (especially with embedded systems) no practical way of examining that code. And nowhere near everything was tested, so the potential for problems was real enough to make contingency plans against.

However, contingency plans are for the *unexpected*. Taking contingency plans as a powerful indication that problems *are* expected is simply one more example of selective misinterpretation. By now, all indications are that date bugs are nowhere near as virulent as nearly everyone thought. They are probably as numerous (nearly all remediators found a whole lot of them), and this has caused and will cause a mostly manageable headache nearly everywhere.

By now, I'm tired of repeating my mantra of "you people are exaggerating wildly", and I don't feel much like saying "I told you so" very often. I'm as relieved as anyone, and I'll consume my preparations cheerfully. Like most, I'm glad I overestimated the problems. It's been a wild ride to nowhere.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 05, 2000

Answers

...and I believe that is where you have arrived at...nowhere. Thanks for contributing so little to the well being of man. Jerk

-- fred flinstone (ffstonef@dld.com), January 05, 2000.

Fred: Why the name calling? How did Flint possibly offend you? He offered a reasonable explanation that I have to admit looks to be the truth. I am guilty along with many others. He made the point that any one who disagreed was shouted down with name calling and vulgarity and you just confirmed his point. It is time that we all stop pointing fingers and shouting idiocies and take a good long look at ourselves. I, for one, appreciate the fact that Flint has never descended to the level of name calling and vulgarity. Chill out dude. It is not over yet, but we need to keep our mouths shut and our eyes open.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), January 05, 2000.

I am just pretty upset at all the darn stuff I bought for pretty much nothing. I feel like a real jerk but I really don't have anyone to blame but myself. Kinda sucks realizing you're an idiot...sorry

-- fred flinstone (ffstonef@dld.com), January 05, 2000.

forum did not do all it could to obliterate realistic input from the development of its fanataseis. You're still here. Decker still here. two voices of reason at least, right? we listened even if we disagreed.

-- mrunderhill (prancing@pony.com), January 05, 2000.

So what are you going to do with that one year of heavy supplies you stashed, Flint? And when will you do it?

-- Not selling-- (and@not.buying), January 05, 2000.


I've been reading the archives and quite a wonderful succint analysis.

I notice that anything remotely resembling a rational post in the archives was immediately followed by 3-4 "shaddup stupid pollie troll Rendonite" posts.

I'd add that my observation that one of the biggest mistakes was assuming that EVERYTHING that was not certified Y2K compliant would immediately fail in a catastrophic, non-repairable way.

And I freely admit to not pointing that out at the time, since I wasn't here at all.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 05, 2000.


MR FRED FLINTSTONE, HOW DO YOU FIGURE YOU CONTRIBUTED ANYTHING TO HUMANITY. I PREPARED AND AM DAMN PROUD OF IT, BUT LET THE MAN VOICE HIS OPINION, WE ALL FEEL KIND OF LET DOWN THAT DARWINISM DIDN'T TAKE OVER BECAUSE OF THE BUG. NOW JUST LET IT GO, WE WERE WRONG. SO GO AHEAD AND WRITE A NASTY RESPONSE BEHIND SOME CHICKEN SHIT FALSE E-MAIL ADDRESS. YOU COWARDLY PIECE OF SHIT

-- STEVE G. YOUNGER (SGYOUNG@MINDSPRING.COM), January 05, 2000.

dunno...guess I will just work my way through it all. Give some to some needy folks. I mean, its all useful.

-- fred flinstone (ffstonef@dld.com), January 05, 2000.

golly! no need for profanity or yelling mr big man! Wanna Shag?

-- fred flinstone (ffstonef@dld.com), January 05, 2000.

Flint:

There was a lot of that. To look at both sides, however, can we not see that not "everyone" was jumping on every post? It can become overwhelming, reading all of these.

What I am "trying" to say is, if a dozen posts show up on a thread about how wierd it is that generators, for instance, are still available, that does NOT mean that everyone else reading that is in complete agreement.......

Now, I posted thanks to several who gave us good news from companies. I posted one or two myself, named companies, that were 100% finished, according to my contacts.

I don't recall assuming, on line, that all good news was twisted or spun. Some might have been. We really do need to give this situation a little more time to mature.

All that aside, yes, the "entrail reading" got rather intense in here. Even if I did frequently state and do think that you bent over backwards sometimes looking for innocuous reasons for things. To maintain balance, in your opinion? I don't know.

But, I still suspect you'd argue both sides of your own execution order, just for the challenge. You might even WIN both sides..... {BG}

-- mushroom (mushroom_bs_too_long@yahoo.com), January 05, 2000.



Mr. Flint,

While I have not always agreed with your opinions, I am glad that you felt strong enough to share them with others. Many of us old-timer DP types never bought the Y2K one-day and it's over. I prepared because I decided there was indeed a risk, as you also apparently did. I am extremely glad there are no dead people lying in the streets and that we passed thru the new year in good fashion. I am holding onto my preparations until summer however, because I know that many things could still go wrong.

I have found myself agreeing with Cory Hamasaki (not the person called infomagic who posted a lot of stuff on Cory's site) regarding the OLD iron mainframes. We converted from an IBM 4381 mainframe to distributed networks in 1998 and I am glad that we did. Small companies like the one I work for seldom want to spend the bucks for a new mainframe.

Anyway, thanks for your input. I used it the same way I used input from others; to make a rational decision for me and my family.

Good Luck to you in 2000.

wally

-- wally wallman (wally_yllaw@hotmail.com), January 05, 2000.


I can't believe this!

Flint posts a lengthy, quasi-triumphalist magisterial re-hash of a whole bunch of stuff he's posted before. And preppers start calling themselves 'idiots' for preparing!

Flint is not The Voice From Mount Sinai, and this deadly affair is still only in the first minutes of the first quarter! It takes more than a few days for corrupted data to have an agglomerated effect, and it takes more than a few days for the practical effects of shielded-from-public-view corporate, plant, and governmental problems to emerge. Lengthen your time span! Y2K just broadcast the seeds - quit moaning because five days later you're only seeing some shoots and not a full harvest!

Patton and John Paul Jones had a different perception of 'reality' in their day - and were vindicated by the results. Do you come from the same tough-minded, willing-to-be-worn-down stock or not? Or are the Pollies going to remake you into 'instant defeatists', just as they have always been 'instant optimists'?

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), January 05, 2000.


Maybe. Let's repost it on May 1 when we know. I would suggest you cut your posts down and get back to your life, not because you're not welcome, but because you obviously and sincerely don't have anything fresh to say at this point.

Whether Y2K is a "3" or an "8.5" in May, I will be glad to discuss the why's and how's with you or others then.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 05, 2000.


bold off. Pollies off, too, hopefully, to more productive use of their time and less waste of ours...

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), January 05, 2000.

What evidence? As I recall, most of the evidence was the usual "Polly wanna cracker...everything is OK" BS line. No one in corporate America said anything concrete about their Y2K remediation efforts. Of course, this probably has something to do with the fear of lawyers.

If someone had come out openly and said, "we are doing this and this and this to remediate," or "Here is how we tested our systems for y2k compliance, ..." then I would have been resting a lot easier.

-- Tim the Evil Programmer (tmiley@yakko.cs.wmich.edu), January 05, 2000.



I rest my case.

-- STEVE G. YOUNGER (SGYOUNG@MINDSPRING.COM), January 05, 2000.

bold off.

-- Dirty Work (Cleanup@PollyMansions.com), January 05, 2000.

yeah...but I can still kick YOUR rather larger than the average persons ASS!

-- fred flinstone (ffstonef@dld.com), January 05, 2000.

Flint; you are absolutly correct. I am guilty of doing all of those things. It took me about oh maybe till we saw Peking still lit up on Janurary 1st to figure that out. By the middle of the second I had re-thought most of where I stood and realized that I never was worried too much about power/phone but I must admit, oil worried me. Nearly all of my worries have passed now and appear to have been unfounded. The only one that remains is the longer term software issues. I a happy to see the market seems to be smoothing out today. What will it do tomorrow, or even this afternoon, who knows?

I also note with growing paranoia hits to my web page in a several hour long session from ftmeade.army.mil. I think it is time for me to go do something else for a while. In my paranoia and confusion I will take the hits as a sign from God. Now let me see, who is at Meade anyway?

This boy had better start behaving before he is really put in his place.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 05, 2000.


One other thing, that my friend is called censorship. The real kind.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 05, 2000.

Speaking of nothing new to say, "BD".....

John, the serious pessimists told us the first minutes of the first quarter were a year ago. Remember the JoAnne Effect? The "doomed" Euro? The fiscal year rollovers? The August GPS rollover? The Gartner Group saying 25% of errors would occur in 1999? Hoff's argument about the magnitude of change in 1999?

As each critical date passed, we heard folks say, "But it isn't January 1 yet!" Well, it's January 5th now. Now, you are telling us it's the first few minutes of the first quarter? Horse fritters.

Every successful critical date has been explained away by the serious pessimists. Now, we are watching 1/1/2000 get the same treatment. I agree that it will take awhile to understand the real impact of Y2K. But let's close the book on the "end of the world" nonsense, shall we?

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 05, 2000.


Jeez, John, chill a bit, why don't you? I've appreciated the various news posts you're providing and all, but from what I can tell Flint is giving a pretty level-headed analysis (problems exist, but certain people are instantly assuming worst-case scenario for *everything*). As it is, you immediately confirmed that part of his post! Take your own advice and wait on things a bit if you think it has to play out, but quite why you want to go ballistic on a rational point is beyond me.

-- Ned Raggett (ned@kuci.org), January 05, 2000.

flint and decker remain morons.

I love to hear the post mortems. It has barely begun and these knuckleheads are giving us the results of a fifteen round heavyweight championship fight two seconds into the first round.

It clearly shows that the have not a modicum of common sense. T'was ever thus.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), January 05, 2000.


Flint, you say you are tired of repeating yourself. Many of us are tired of it also. That's one thing we definitely agree upon.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), January 05, 2000.

Y'know??? I REALLY have to agree with the man. 'Course he and I share the wonderful ability to have a rousing argument on some things without another person in the room. the difference is he tends to win his and I tend to lose mine.

MY take is that we are JUST a bit too early into what I and a couple others have always maintained was a YEAR 2000 problem not a DAY 2000 problem. Some things, like wines, and receivables require aging. Let's let this one age a bit before we decide to sell it. (Selling no disruption before its time)

CHuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 05, 2000.


Dang Flint!!! For once I agree with you. I've done my fair share of growling at some of your posts, but this one, I think you hit the nail on the head. As a long time IT professional myself, I took the signs of the times to mean we would indeed have problems. As a doomer, I expected far more and can blame nobody but myself for my views. Like you, I researched everything I could and came away with reinforced conclusions. I realize it's not over yet, but the main events anticipated did not happen.

"The point is that with few exceptions, those on this forum made a long, concerted and highly focused effort to FORCE reality to match their fantasies."

This is true. I never thought of it as a fantasy, but simply my experienced opinion. Therefore, I gravitated toward the doomer viewpoint and concentrated mostly on this.

I was one of those that saw some information deleted from this forum by some posters (before they became highly offensive). I even went on the defense of some these posters early on because I wanted to see what they had to say. Even some of my posts were deleted by the Sysops. I finally figured out that the Sysops were CENSORING (gulp, I said it!) the information here on this particular forum. I have no idea what might have been occuring on other forums, but if this forum was any indication, censorship was alive and well.

By the way, I'm the guy who was banned from Free Republic with my very first post. Eventually, I got myself banned from other sites too, even Ebay banned me because I told the truth about how they do not solve seller / bidder problems. My point is, truth that is controversial or unpopular to the masses (or the forum) is never received well, and in some cases, deleted. We are all the poorer for this. So I can quite agree that the truth or at least a broader representation of it, on Y2K was not presented here and elsewhere.

Even still, I support the banning of posters who clearly have an axe to grind. If they would have posted in a reasonable, considerate and semi-professional manner, had their say and did not jam the boards with incessant spamming, I'd have felt differently about their being banned. I never did this myself, I was banned from other sites simply because my views were unpopular.

Still, I only blame myself. I acted as I saw fit on Y2K and do not blame anybody else, nor do I expect an apology from anyone. I don't trust the Sysops here or anywhere else, but that's their perogative, to censor information that they deem inappropriate. I don't have to like it, but I can (finally) accept it. I always had the right to go elsewhere.

However, in all retrospect, I was treated here better then anyplace else on the Net and for that, I thank the forum moderators and the contributors.

So here I sit, not regretting one minute of it, nor one prep. I think I learned a huge amount and am grateful for all who contributed to my education. It's not over and I'm not selling, to do so would be very irresponsible of me. I am confused by those who believe that they have wasted a single penny on Y2K. They have too narrow a focus and need to take a breather and consider the greater scheme of things. Preps ALWAYS make good sense. Preps are not limited to Y2K, but life in general. I now get to eat it, use it, spend it and enjoy it, all my preps. Like I've said so many times before (Bunker Bob and many others), I'm all set and I love it.

If there is one thing that I've learned, that is to stay a little more quiet. My opinions don't really matter all that much. It's been great, worrysome, anxious, frustrating and exhilirating all at the same time. Let's do it again, shall we?

-- Truth (lifeofliberty@yahoo.com), January 05, 2000.


It seems almost mystical the way Y2K has turned out thus far. Those who prepared cannot be ridiculed. They looked at the hand being dealt and played it accordingly. The majority, who didn't study the issue, were the foolish ones.

I would be interested to know how some of the nation's great poker players would have reacted, given the correspondance of Capers Jones, IEEE or whoever. I respect the good poker player's superior perception of reality over a long series of plays.

So far, it appears that these IT experts don't know their own craft. But again, things are not always as they appear.

It's been a great experience.

-- earl (ejrobill@pcpostal.com), January 05, 2000.


Uh...are you leaving?

-- a (a@a.a), January 05, 2000.

Ken & Ned: I'm certainly not "going ballistic", as you put it, and least of all at Flint. Nor can I be fairly lumped with the 'first minutes of the first quarter TEOTWAWKI prognosticators. Flint has, as I've said repeatedly, been consistent in his viewpoint and opposition. I can and do respect that, given the expression and content of his views. But this, as he says himself, is merely a collection of things he's said repeatedly and previously - and suddenly we have preppers calling themselves 'idiots' for preparing.

Your point is mine also - this thing will take time to play out: we all need to 'chill out' and let that occur, with a special reference to the Pollies.

BTW, Ned, what made you think I was 'going ballistic'? Was it the reference to 'Patton'...? :)

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), January 05, 2000.


Paul Milne writes:

"It clearly shows that the [sic] [Flint & Decker] have not a modicum of common sense. T'was ever thus."

BWAAAAA--HAAAAA. Paul, I just about laughed up my lunch on that one. The Y2K pundit with the absolute WORST PREDICTION RECORD making fun of other peoples' lack of common sense. That's rich.

Good one, Paul.....keep 'em coming.....I need more laughs.

-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), January 05, 2000.


This forum was to discuss the Y2K prep situation, with all of the ramifications given that and I quote Flint:

"I believe it was important to listen to the warnings, though. There is absolutely nobody who knows how 4 decades of programmers just happened to mangle all the lines of code in the world, and (especially with embedded systems) no practical way of examining that code. And nowhere near everything was tested, so the potential for problems was real enough to make contingency plans against."

Because of that RISK, which we all understood, we talked about it.

People trying to post that said, "It's no problem" obviously didn't accept the premise of Flint, and so were an annoyance.

Is this so hard to understand?

If someone didn't think it was a problem, why ever post here?

-- Gregg (g.abbott@starting-point.com), January 05, 2000.


off off

-- (off@off.off), January 05, 2000.

To John -- y'all just seemed like you were about to explode a bit, was all! ;-) And let's face it, even if Flint was simply re-presenting older material -- hey, us newer types hadn't read it yet. ;-)

-- Ned Raggett (ned@kuci.org), January 05, 2000.

Flint, Thanks, I think you are right on target.

IMHO, Flint, Decker, Chuck = adults

others on this thread = entertainment value only.

-- walt (walt@lcs.k12.ne.us), January 05, 2000.


Gawd, I just love this forum!!

John, only one person, Fred, called himself an idiot for preparing. He is just dealing with the emotional rollercoaster I imagine. Flint made some good points. I always appreciate your posts, John. I don't know what to think about Paul Milne.

Lets all just stay rational and focused and see what we can can do to save the world from meteorites, shall we?

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), January 05, 2000.


I have one question: Is this the same Flint who in a post yesterday called doomers dummies? Flint, was that you or an imposter using your name?

Most of your posts are intelligent, well thought out. Then come the ones like yesterday. A puzzle.

-- Mr. Pinochle (pinochledd@aol.com), January 05, 2000.


Flint,

Have you no shame? As a fellow moderate, do I really have to point out to you, that we were wrong to?

I seem to recall posts from you that stated that you could see a definite possibility of there being "Bhopal" type disasters occur. Seen any Bhopals, yet? Even in the third world?

No. This has turned out, so far, even better than the most polly of polly predictions. The problems that have been reported to date, are barely enough to register above the background noise. This is not what I expected, and judging from the posts I read from you, it's not what you expected either. It is the height of disengenuity, for you to act as if you're not surprised by this.

I'm sorry, but what you've been posting since rollover, just reeks of me-tooism. It gives the impression that you were merely posturing to be able to claim to be what ever side acheived "victory". This is the sort of thing that gives moderates the image of being weasely fence straddlers. Stop it, please.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), January 05, 2000.


Bokonen:

I quote from the post where I started this thread:

"I'm as relieved as anyone, and I'll consume my preparations cheerfully. Like most, I'm glad I overestimated the problems."

Yes, over a year ago I expected much worse, and I admit I'm surprised at the lack of problems so far. I also admit I didn't believe those whose predictions have turned out to be more accurate than mine. I predicted mostly manageable problems with some glaring exceptions. So far, I haven't seen the glaring exceptions. Maybe there won't be any. Like everyone here, I'm waiting to see.

But I've never sought the solace of certainty, and I've tried to follow the bouncing ball, living with the, uh, commentary I've endured for doing so. And I'll try to do better next time.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 05, 2000.


Flint- you're doing fine.

unfortunately you got sorted into one of two piles of shit.

and so did everyone else.

I think I'll go outside for a breath of fresh air!

-- plonk! (realaddress@hotmail.com), January 05, 2000.


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