It's been real, folks. I enjoyed wasting time with you. In the process I learned many many things so it was not a complete loss. Also, I got a free lesson in human psychology and became accquainted with a lot of novel viewpoints, many of which I once would have written off as "loony" or "fringe" but now am perfectly comfortable pondering. Also I believe that I rubbed elbows with some genuinely great and brilliant people here. What a privilege! Who cares if some of them were "wrong." In the long run they may well be more "correct" than any of us could have imagined.

FWIW, I am now more convinced than ever in attaining a lifestyle that is as self-sufficient as possible. That's a good thing.

Now, if you'll allow me to spout off with my elegant wit (NOT), here is a revised prediction about the coming years and some NEW things to worry about, new reasons why you might want to keep some of your preps.

2000. This year we'll see things run slightly less efficiently due to poorly-patched y2k solutions, with continued volatility in the stock market. Due to abundant inventory buildup in the last few quarters, we'll see a drop off of business/consumer spending. Due to rising oil prices, we'll see a slight rebound of inflation. During another fit of market exuberance, Greenspan will raise rates to put the brakes on the inflationary pressures. These factors, together, will put the economy into negative growth for several months. The recession will be about as bad as in '91. Bubble.com will burst and the DJIA will dip below 8000 were it will level off and remain stagnant for 12-24 months. All in all, 2000 will seem like a mild hangover left over from the '90s.

2001-2005. Robust recovery and again a surge in millennial ("whew, we made it! we can do anything") optimism in the US. Europe has problems with both economic and political union but slow progress is made. Also there is heated debate about a new "EU Army" vs. the old NATO arrangement. Asia begins to recover after the recession and the hard times of the '90s. Latin America not only recovers but booms. Russia, China, and India tighten their military and political ties into an arrangement that is an alliance in everything but name. Each of these regimes becomes more moderate economically but more authoritarian politically.

Oil prices are still high but people make do and begin to try out models of vehicles that get 70+ MPG (gas turbine/electric hybrids). The middle east is quieter but still a chaotic mess. The Trans-caucus region becomes the center of the next oil boom and region of high instability, terrorism and conflict from the different outside forces which want to exert influence on the area.

Computer speeds of higher than a gighz are making their way into everyday life in the US. The Net morphs into something of higher bandwidth with far more appeal and quality of images/sounds. Soon you just buy a single telecom package which includes phone, net, tv, etc all going through the same line. New cancer treatments for the old-time killers are finally reaching fruition with dazzling effectiveness, partly because treatment is based on targeting the specific genetic defects exhibited by the tumors. New "DNA chips" revolutionize medical diagnosis.

Now for the downside of 2001-2005: privacy as we know it will cease to exist as police at every level will exploit cheaper- and more readily available surveillance/eavesdropping technology. This will be due to numerous "terrorist scares" and still more psychotic shooting sprees. In reality, the US will be relatively free of crime (compared to, say, 1990) but the fear of crime will be hyped way out of proportion. No one will notice much as our Constitutional freedoms vanish into thin air, because (for the most part) they will erode under benevolent and responsive leadership.

Now for 2006-2010. The US "lomg boom" will continue in all areas of life. Nevertheless, during this time the nuclear club will greatly expand in size. Furthermore, the missle technology designed to deliver weapons of mass destruction will be in the hands of many motivated third world nations, former Cold War pawns. Payback time. Somewhere, somehow, there will be a disastrous attack on US soil by a chemical, nuclear, or biological weapon, leading to an even tighter "national security state." Lots of people will be infuriated and demanding decisive action. Many Congressmen will blame this terrorism (which will occur in the midst of continuous malicious cyberattacks) on Russian or Chinese agents. This blame will further alienate the Russian/Chinese alliance from the West and a new arms race will commence.

Economically, the Baby Boomers will begin to retire in large numbers and begin to shuffle their assets to more liquid forms. They will begin to get sick and need long-term care. Their massive numbers will fade from being productive members of the workforce to retired beneficiaries of social security and medicare. Unfortunately, they will suck the system dry on the shoulders of their less-prosperous children and grandkids. Their leadership in the Presidency and Congress will continue well into the 'teens, but it will be characterized by a Quixotic, crusading quality that will get us into trouble. On the other hand, their creativity will blossom again and produce many fascinating movements in art, culture, and the electronic media--and the aging process will be made far more humane and bearable.

Finally, the global climate change will begin to be very very noticable. By this time, many nations will be drafting plans for seawalls and other massive projects to save their coastlines. Also, food shortages and droughts will be far more common. Will it because of natural causes, human industry, or a common cause? No matter. It's happening now; it will continue to happen. By 2010, the internal combustion engine will be on the way out and industry will have to spend huge amounts (on the DEMANDS of the UN) to reduce their emmissions.

So, then, the 2001-2010 will be a mix of good and bad. Severe economic hardship is on the distant horizon due to the demographic and environmental reasons. A potential military/political conflict between China/Russia and the West over the Trans-Caucus and Pacific regions will begin to brew and come to a head. Amidst another Great Depression beginning around 2010, the economic chaos will breed a huge amount of crime and BigTime terrorism. On the positive side, the rapid revolution in telecommunications and health technology may well offset some of these critical problems. Time will tell. Plan accordingly.

See you around ;)

coprolith

-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), January 05, 2000

Answers

Privacy will be huge issue .... whatever happens with Y2K.

Join us over at prep forum periodically - if you're right, I don't think quiet, long-term, thoughtful development of a different lifestyle than hitherto - with a philosophy to match - is such a bad idea.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 05, 2000.

Coprolith, as I remember you're from my area. You've always posted well-reasoned, informative posts and your final one is no exception. Yes, please stick with the preps forum. I'll look forward to reading your further views and discoveries.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), January 05, 2000.

Thanks Coprolith, appreciate your post. Interesting too. Me thinks you might have forgot a couple of important things and your timeline is stretched too far out, but I enjoyed this nonetheless. Strange how we can't seem to help ponder and predict the future. The lessons we are learning from Y2K will do us good in our futures. I emphatically agree with the self sufficient lifestyle, I'm there and would not trade this for the world. The benefits are enormous and would take pages just to describe. Good for you, I hope you can attain your dreams.

-- Truth (lifeofliberty@yahoo.com), January 05, 2000.

Interesting take on the near future. If I had a point to argue, I'd point out that the biggest conflicts of the past century started with the smaller countries and involved the big ones (Us, China/Russia 'axis', whoever) later on. I'd put my money on one of the following to start the next big stink: India/Pakistan, The Koreas, China/Taiwan, and the tired, overplayed issue of Israel vs. the Arab World. Most everything else would be considered a civil war (like Russia/Chechnya, and in a way, China/Taiwan). Until then though, we're fat n happy BITR survivors!

-- Just (anotherbuckeye@columbus.org), January 05, 2000.

Coprolith,

We did have some good discussions, didn't we? As we wander off after other interests, perhaps our paths will cross again. I hope so.

-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), January 05, 2000.

Fair winds! Pop in here, occasionally, if you can. (I really don't want to lose touch with everyone so soon. Some good folks, I've met, all with a unique expertise. Ya never know when you might need a bit of advice.)

Pop in here, occasionally, if you can.

Discussion forum for The Toilet Paper Chronicles: Gallows Humor from the Y2k Underground

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), January 05, 2000.

Good luck on your research!

-- Wilferd (WilferdW@aol.com), January 05, 2000.

One of my favorites.

-- Carlos (riffraff@cybertime.net), January 05, 2000.

coprolith:

Once you were an intimate part of me, but then I grew tired of your presence and forcefully broke our bond. I left you all alone for many years until you were discovered, cradled and scrutinized. Humans are silly.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 05, 2000.

"Soon you just buy a single telecom package which includes phone, net, tv, etc all going through the same line."

That one is no longer a prediction, but a reality. I already have access to all of that and more through a single cable modem.

The Internet is here to stay, so there is no need to say goodbye unless you cannot afford to pay for your ISP connection. Maybe you are choosing to focus on other things at the moment, but I won't be suprised if someone who spends as much time on the Net as you do will be stopping back in occasionally for as long as this forum is maintained. The Internet doesn't have to be a stay or go ultimatum, you can use it as easily as you can click your mouse. Whatever the case may be, happy trails. :-)

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), January 05, 2000.

Good luck, dude. And don't believe that evolutionist crap.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), January 05, 2000.

Coprolith,

I haven't seen that many of your posts, but I was definitely impressed by the ones I saw. Thanks for being a part of us and good luck to you and yours in all you do.

-- eve (123@4567.com), January 06, 2000.

Fair winds, following seas.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 06, 2000.

Farewell coprolith, you will be missed!

-- Mumsie (shezdremn@aol.com), January 07, 2000.