As I scroll through the posts about computer glitches and the little disruption that are trailing the rollover, I can't help but think that most everyone is missing the biggest, most damaging affect of Y2K so far. $600 Billion dollars in damage so far this morning and climbing.

I know that a lot of people don't understand the Stock Market, but how can so many people on Yourdan's forum be overlooking the impact of this bursting bubble ? People are waiting for the first sign of a PC going down the tubes but we fail to notice that Wall Street and associated markets, which affect EVERYONES livelyhood, are pure and simple, collapsing before your very eyes.

What amazes me also is that you still see people wanting to sell their preps and insist on calling it a huge non-event. It is not a huge non-event because the very core of everyones economic livelyhood is TOAST ! Disentigrating before our eyes and most look right over this fact. Is it coincidence that it happened on the opening of the markets after the roll ? NO !

I think the crowing by the pollies has been far too premature. And concession by many doomers likewise, has been premature. The crap IS hitting the fan, and has been since day one. The immediate affects to most aren't realized acutely (more aptly, immediately) as would a gasoline shortage but you can bet the farm that you WILL feel it.

My recommendations ? Keep your preps and keep your cautious mentality. DO NOT under estimate the terrible consequences of what you see in the business news section of the paper and on television. Y2K IS having terrible consequences, just not exactly like you envisioned.

In short, you are focusing on the wrong failures folks. You are overlooking the worst of the worst. The market failures can have the same impact, but over a much longer period of time. Some of us had BETTER WAKE UP !

-- Observer (defation@wallstreet.mkt), January 05, 2000

Answers

And from what university did you recieve your m.b.a. and with what credentials do you back your "forecast"?

-- futureshock (gray@matter.com), January 05, 2000.

I am no expert on the stock market, however, just as it is premature to call y2k a non event, its equally premature to call the stock market fall a "crash". Anyone with half a brain knew that it had to come down. And the bigger the bubble got the farther it would fall. However, at this point I would still call it a correction. When it goes through 6000, then I will concede that it is a crash. In the meantime, I wait and watch for the point to jump back in again. And there are many reasons for the falling market that have nada to do with Y2K. This market had to correct sometime. What better time than the first trading day of a new year to take your profits and run?

Taz

-- Taz (Tassi123@aol.com), January 05, 2000.

-- futureshock,

I was trying to explain something to a preacher one day. Something I had learned through research, not gut feeling. His reply to me was, "I was educated at Dallas Theological Cemetary and you PRESUME to teach me?"

-- Mark Hillyard (foster@inreach.com), January 05, 2000.

"And from what university did you recieve your m.b.a. and with what credentials do you back your "forecast"?"

It's called an opinion, you do not need an M.B.A. to have one...

-- BiGG (superste@antigopro.net), January 05, 2000.

..Y2K IS having terrible consequences, just not exactly like you envisioned. ..

Thats not an opinion, thats a statement based on nothing more than trying to read the tea-leaves of business. People have been doing this on this forum for more than a year and it ended up with predictions of mass failures, which never happened.

Calm down, its actually getting better day by day.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), January 05, 2000.

Executive bonuses, just like every year. This is a bigger slump than usual, but then it was a bigger bubble than ever before. See the connection?

Wake me up when something unusual happens. Start of year cashing in, train crashes and sunrises don't count.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 05, 2000.

The collapse of a stock market bubble can cause a severe recession or depression. It has happened quite a few times in the past and it is likely to happen again. Whether it happens this year or later remains to be seen.

-- Danny (dcox@bc.seflin.org), January 05, 2000.

Futureshock -

Observer is a human being. An "MBA" is just a piece of paper. A university degree is just a piece of paper. Both are essentially meaningless. Neither qualifies as a substantial credential.

Observer is a human being. This trumps any piece of paper, regardless of the magic words that are inscribed upon it.

I am interested in sharing the human experience. As such, I am interested in sharing Observer's insights, whether you agree with them or not. If you had offered any insight, any insight whatsoever, I would have accepted it just as gladly. However, your tedious ad hominem bores me. I dismiss it with a wave of my hand.

-- Holly Douglas (hollydouglas@hotmail.com), January 05, 2000.

It ain't even a correction yet. Unless you're a newbie day-trader or futures punter, you've seen 3% down days many times before.

The S+P is down 84 from its all-time high of 1478. That's a bit over 5%, and to be expected perhaps two or three times a year.

NB this isn't a buy tip! There's no reason I can see that this couldn't be the start of something bigger, and no way I know to tell except wait (on the sidelines!) and see.

-- Nigel (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), January 05, 2000.

MBA? Got mine from Sam Houston Institute of Technology. Good ole SHIT.

-- JB (noway@jose.com), January 05, 2000.

Hamster,

I'll bet your MBA doesn't require tea leaves. You are SO smart. Gawd, I wish I could be like you ! Someday...

-- Observer (deflation@wallstreet.mkt), January 05, 2000.

Every month (in the UK) the directors of the Bank of England get together and decide whether the minimum lending rate should be raised, lowered, or left where it is.

The reason why the UK FTSE 100 dropped sharply yesterday was because rumours were circulating that the BoE was going to raise interest rates. y2k had NOTHING to do with it.

Stock markets are highly sensitive to interest rates (and rumours about it). If the rate is dropped then the markets will charge (for a while), if they are raised then the markets panic (for a while). If they aren't changed then it is business as usual.

The reason why people are worried about the US stock market is the same reason why people worry about a booming housing market in the UK. People use increases in their share and property equity to apply for more credit. This can lead to the economy "over-heating" so the powers that be raise interest rates to cool things off a little (and hit the loan-addicts where it hurts of course).

When the markets open after effectively being closed for 10 days, and with rumours of base rate rises all over the place, it is absolutely bormal for there be to significant losses.

Interest rates not y2k... just repeat that ten times please, and then maybe you will get this "crash" in perspective.

Of course I am concerned about the ridiculously overpriced market, but only because (just as in 1929) everyone has used their paper fortune to get up to their eyeballs in debt.

-- Matthew (mdpope@hotmail.com), January 05, 2000.

If the NASDAQ bubble continues to deflate significantly both Thursday and Friday, then I'll get concerned about next week.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), January 05, 2000.