PAGING MICHAEL ERSKINE AND OTHER DESPERADOS

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Post from yesterday.

Listen folks, you got to calm down. I posted this Yardeni article yesterday only to be blasted by 2 people. I do not understand why simply placing an article for information causes such irritation and anger. Not one of the words of the post were mine. I did not write it, I did not express and opinion. I just simply posted and article.

Many doomers are morons. You give the polly's ammunition unwittingly. In my opinion they have all the right in the world to through it back in your face.

http://www.forbes.com/tool/html/00/Jan/0103/mu2.htm

January 03, 2000

One Week View

Yardeni changes his tune

By Marius Meland

NEW YORK. 11:15 AM EST-Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Ed Yardeni, perhaps the best-known year-2000 Cassandra, is changing his tune after the turn of the millennium produced no significant computer disruptions.

"I have to say I was very surprised about how smoothly the transition went," Yardeni said. "I'll wait another couple of days, but if the next two days are uneventful I'll simply say I was wrong and join the consensus view with regards to the outlook for the economy. As it appears now, there will be no global recession as a result of Y2K."

Two years ago, Yardeni predicted Y2K would trigger an economic downturn as severe as the 1974-75 recession in the aftermath of the first oil shock. Only two days ago, he told The New York Times he revised his earlier gloomy forecasts but added that he still expected a brief, shallow dip in the first half of the year.

But now Yardeni says there might not be any noteworthy effects of Y2K on the economy after all. Does that mean he was wrong all along?

"I don't regret having done my part to sound the alarm bell. I'm happy to note the bell was heard. The world's information technology community has done a tremendous work in preparing for this event," Yardeni said.

He said his greatest worry was that Y2K problems overseas would disrupt the supply chain and eventually hit U.S. shores. Although he said it's too early to make a conclusive assessment about the extent of Y2K problems abroad, he acknowledged that the colossal disruptions many people had expected in Asia, Russia and Latin America probably won't happen.

Now, Yardeni said, the most immediate challenge for the U.S. market isn't Y2K, but rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. He expects two interest rate increases this year, starting with the Fed's next policy meeting Feb. 1-2.

"It's important to bear in mind that at this time last year, it was only the U.S. economy that was booming. Now we're seeing a recovery in many other parts of the world as well," Yardeni said.

What a difference a millennium makes.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), January 03, 2000

Answers

Turn out the lights, the party's over.

-- It was fun (while it@lasted.com), January 03, 2000.

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Virginian--Suggest you read Dale Way's post rollover assessment below. The fans are streaming onto the field because the home team intercepted a pass in the first quarter. It's always been about mainframes dude. I'm as happy as anyone on the planet that infrastructure held but I always suspected it would. Let's just hope that we can manage the problems that arise in legacy systems.

-- Blew5M (gaf@mindspring.com), January 03, 2000.

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Be nice to the Virginian he lives about a block down the road.

The Virginian chooses to believe this article. He even chooses to be flip about that belief. Don't trouble yourselves. He is not a scientist. He seems to fail to realize that the man at IEEE says it is not over. That Kosky says it is not over. That Yourdon and others say it is not over. You read the report you quote yourself. Then read it again. Then again. About that time you will begin to get an slight understanding of how much thought and time went into that report which has been essentially correct SO FAR. The more correct that report appears to be, the more concerned I get. NEVER THE LESS IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SURE OF MUCH AT ALL.

I remain.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 03, 2000.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), January 04, 2000

Answers

And your point was misunderstood? "Many doomers are morons." So sorry, I thought intent of the post was transparent, but had no actual evidence for that. Now I have the evidence of your original intent and you want an apology? Here it is, "many lawyers are morons."

Since your privacy is your business, I shall not endevor to explain things to you further. Why not just walk down the street and ask me personally?

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 04, 2000.


While we are discussing it? You wouldn't know anything about a couple of posts to the thread titled "OT: What I want is information not argument" from URB Creek, would you?

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 04, 2000.

Virginian,

FWIW, I posted the same article (oops!) as an FYI, and never looked back to read responses. I figured the folks here that I would respect would be more inclined to blast either Yardeni (if true) or the author and site posting (if false).

Now if frothing dogs dwell on a thread to scrap over bones, I don't think it's worth the time to revisit the thread just to critique their technique.

Simply, it reflect on them; not you. I appreciate your and anyone's efforts to post articles. Now, as for waxing poetics, well, that is another story...annoying, but again it reflects on them.

You owe no explanation.

I remember the thread in which we were saddened by some news, and you took the time to post patriotic graphics and a poem. It was quite moving, and a hell of a nice thing to do. That post is what made my impression of you; not an FYI post by an author I've never heard of...

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 04, 2000.


Sorry for monopolizing the bandwidth but one other little point. Virginian, if you call what I said yesterday to you getting blasted you better take a look at some of the other threads and see what some folks are giving others. One in particular comes immediatly to mind but seems to have been deleted so I can only refer to it as a fond memory. It was Huffie's post of an open letter to Yourdon. I think he got ragged so hard today that he is sleeping it off. Would you like a bit of that?

If you don't have a pretty tough skin, we will eat you alive. More's the pity, more's the pity.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 04, 2000.


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