or...It ain't over til its over.

-- Cluck (@ .), January 04, 2000

Answers

Program trading curbs were istituted when it the DOW was down 220. I wonder where it would be right now if the curbs hadn't kicked in.

-- Lisa (lisadawn@yahoo.com), January 04, 2000.

he only way to make money in the stock market is to buy low and sell high. "Selling high" means you have to actually sell. Everyone agrees that the heights we are seeing here are pretty awesome, perhaps unrealistic. How does a group of savvy investors wanting to take their profits while they can by selling indicate that Y2K is still going to be a big deal in the market? What evidence do you have, other than the fact that the dip occured in the year 2000, that the problem is Y2K related?

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 04, 2000.

Interesting viewpoint. I guess that with the markets returning ALL THE WAY BACK to their December 28th level, it MUST indicate a freefall into the dark ages....

Heaven forbid we see a market correction ALL THE WAY BACK to where it was in early December, 1999. Then all hell is gonna break loose.

Keep diggin'. Keep lookin' for that BIG SIGN that you were right - if you look hard enough, you might even find proof that you're a intelligent life form too - but most of us will never believe THAT fallacy either.

-- Thomas Redder (t_redder@hotmail.com), January 04, 2000.

For what it is worth, President Clinton announced the re-appointment fo Alan Greenspan.

(Not sure if that is going to help or hurt....)

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), January 04, 2000.

It was my impression that the curbs were moved to 1100.

I know there are multiple limits. Does anyone have the current ones?

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), January 04, 2000.

Paul, it's about expectations.

There was a HUGE runup in stocks prior to rollover (which I did not expect, but which matched the large economic growth of the last quarter). Now that we are post-rollover and the Fed is looking to reduce the liquidity it used to deal with the increased uncertainty of last quarter, expectations are changing again.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), January 04, 2000.

...and since the stock markets only go up, THIS IS A BUYING opportunity! (Can't wait for reality to hit home for those who drive the markets up with new "pair-a-dimes.")

-- W (me@home.now), January 04, 2000.

you really have to love these pessimists! for the past year we have heard, at each dipping of the market, "here come da crash!"

BUT...where were you all while the market was climbing? Silent as Church Mice!

Milne was finally embarassed into silence after constantly (and consistantly WRONGLY) saying "this is *IT*!"

You may want to learn a lesson from the part-time pig farmer....and not count *your* chickens before they are hatched.

-- slightly amused (but@still.interested), January 04, 2000.

Ummmm, the Nasdaq was up over 80% in 1999. Dow up over 25%. Can you say "profit taking?"

-- (I'm@pol.ly), January 04, 2000.

Yes, we can say that, .....rhymes with greedy bastards....lol. Looks like a correction - bout time. Give a little more room for others to "get in".

-- karen (karen@karen.karen), January 04, 2000.

-- slightly amused commented:

"you really have to love these pessimists! for the past year we have heard, at each dipping of the market, "here come da crash!"

You might want to review the action to the market over the past year before you make comments like this. Your IGNORANCE runs amuck.

The MAJORITY of stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ have been lower over the past year. Most peoples portfolios reflect this action.

Get a life you NITWIT!!

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 04, 2000.

So... if the market goes up, Y2K was hype; if the market goes down, Y2K was right...

Hmmm...what about all the other market rises and falls? This market is crazily overpriced. I think Y2K is mostly nonsense, and I think the market will go down. Is that a non-viable position, Cluck?

-- Jim Thompson (jimthompsonmd@attglobal.net), January 04, 2000.

From above:

Heaven forbid we see a market correction ALL THE WAY BACK to where it was in early December, 1999. Then all hell is gonna break loose.

At the S&P 500 back to 1400 with 15 minutes to go, it's wiped out all the gains since early July 1999....does that count as "all hell breaking loose" in your opinion? Or do you wish it to fall further?

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 04, 2000.

""Ummmm, the Nasdaq was up over 80% in 1999. Dow up over 25%. Can you say "profit taking?""

Something I never understood? Why take profits on something (other than for consumption) that has just earned you a bucketfull. Where are you going to put those profit that will give you the same return? Or, are you really saying that you are afraid that the bucket has a leak?

-- (u@jerk.com), January 04, 2000.

Boy - wouldn't that be ironic: if foreign money was moved here (US markets in general) to avoid risk from overseas y2k-induced failures, but then that money was lost here in a three-four day panic right after the rollover caused by the foreign investors "re-pulling" their own funds back out to re0invest overseas. .....

Now, how are "the pollies" going to blame those who prepared for y2k-induced troubles for this one? After all, supposedly, those who prepared already removed their money - what little they didn't spend on dried beans and generators that is.

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 04, 2000.

Yeah, that's the ticket, buy now, the bulls will never come home to the corral. The ride will never end! Believe it! The new gospel of the new paradigm! Y2K is a crock! THERE WILL BE NO DEGRADATION!

Got any solar panels for sale, cheap???

Kook

-- Y2Kook (Y2Kook@usa.net), January 04, 2000.

"Something I never understood? Why take profits on something (other than for consumption) that has just earned you a bucketfull."

It's devastatingly simple: There is no actual profit until you sell. Until then, it's just profit potential.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 04, 2000.

Ray, you said:

"The MAJORITY of stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ have been lower over the past year. Most peoples portfolios reflect this action."

Then you are hanging out with the wrong crowd. With a single exception, every person I know who invested in the stock market made money this year. That one exception insisted on being a contrarian and invested in things like the Prudent Bear fund.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 04, 2000.

There's another whole unknown at work that has not been mentioned lately--derivatives.

If you recall, there was a fiasco with LTCM--a hedgefund.Long Term Capital Management was caught in losing derivative positions. Greenspan sort of brokered a deal between the banks that had huge stakes in this whole mess. Greenspan explained his abnormal involvement as a necessary step to avoid rather large disruptions in our economy.

Well, when I see markets whipsawing their way through these first two days, this comes back to mind. The volatility is spread widely across the international marketplaces. Some of the exaggerated dips and spikes may not simply be buying and selling, but derivatives induced buying and selling.

The leverage of derivatives make them particularly vulnerable in the current market climate. Our banks had a huge stake in these and earned a "pretty penny" leading up to rollover. Our insurance companies are into these along with Mutual funds, and Mortgage Brokerages.

Even the spike in gold awhile back mangled one hedge fund that was caught on the wrong side of shorting gold contracts.

The speculative positions of some of our biggest financial institutions may make for a VERY interesting January. If the gyrations continue or begin to get bigger, derivatives COULD BE a major underlying factor at work.

(Orange County went Bankrupt a number of years back from derivatives speculations. As I recall a lawsuit was later filed against the brokerage that sold the derivatives. It took a few years for a settlement to be reached.) Again, we live in interesting times!

Regards,

-- (He Who) Rolls with Punches (JoeZi@aol.com), January 04, 2000.

Paul, I'm happy for your friends but that does not change the FACTS a bit.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 04, 2000.

No Ray, the fact is that, by count, more NYSE issues declined in value than increased. By total value of outstanding shares, the NYSE was up. The concept that the majority of portfolios declined in value is, unless you can show evidence, mere guesswork on your part based only on the number of issues and not on the overall value of those issues or any other pasky FACTS.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 04, 2000.

Well Paul, in a nut shell the money has gone into a narrowing number of stocks, this in turn has given the appearrance of a healthy rising market. Unfortunately this is not the fact. Take a minute out to look at a weekly two year advance/decline line chart of the NYSE or NASDAQ, if this isn't an eye opener I don't know what would be.

This market will succumb to the greed factor sooner rather than later. In turn it will destroy the hopes and dreams of MANY naive investors. Hopefully you won't be one of them.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 04, 2000.

Paul Neuhardt wouldnt recognize a spike if it ran lengthwise through his forehead. This market is, by all historical standards, a blowoff mania akin to the Tulip Craze. The only reason people even have opinions like yours is because the norm has been breached for so long...it wont be that way for ever (or for much longer). If you believe that folks can actually make 85% per year returns on businesses which are losing money hand over fist, you need to move your leaky microwave away from your workstation...

-- Frank Lee /I dont give a damn (ibuy@halfoff.com), January 04, 2000.

you people will not give up. What if the Dow hits 8,000? It is still higher than it was 5 years ago. Everyone agrees that a market correction is in order. I listened to you people preach about gold climbing out of the sky, the Dow crashing 1/1/99 or so and other dire predictions. None of this has happened. I moved my 401 out of aggressive stuff about 1 month ago and was pissed that I missed some of the Christmas runup. Can you not see that people are doing just what Paul says - taking profits. I also think the post y2k stuff is going to have a negative impact on the economy because billions have been spent on non-production (organizations will be more efficient which will be a long-term positive, but a short-term profit hurter). Also, the Fed is taking cash back out of the system. While I'm no fiat currency expert or an economist I see that a market correction was due before y2k. I think the Dow may fall another thousand and will still be up over the last 12 months (I think).

It is humorous watching you doomers grasp at straws for some big crash. Everything worked. I was the y2k Coordinator for a tribal health organization running a lot of 486 machines and a software package on an old Unix box. Things are working just fine with our system and with the "Legacy" software that the main IHS medical package software utilizes. Also, our old biomeds made it through just fine.

The IHS (a group we refer to for certain technical issues) did a wonderful job on their y2k preps. I kept reading things that said that the IHS was one of the federal programs in trouble. I think the were wrong.

I am relieved and happy with the y2k outcome.

Why can't you people admit that it was a bump in the road and take home the gratitude that at least you had some insurance.

P.S. No more "death of a thousand cuts" stuff, PLEASE!!!

-- Slickaroo (Not@again.com), January 04, 2000.

1. If my entire investment portfolio lost 50% of it's value today, I would still be way ahead of inflation over the last 5 years, even more so over the last 10. what does that mean? plain and simple, it means that over that time, my investment strategy paid off by increasing my total effective wealth over time. Ans speaking of over time, two years is a very short period for a serious investor to consider. I perfer to think of 10 years as the short term and 30+ as the longer term. By doing that, I don't get hysterical everytime the DOW sluffs off a few percentage points.

Furthermore, I am one of those naive investors you talk about. I let professional advisors suggest what to do with my money, and so far the only losses I have suffered have come from not following their advice. I suggest others do the same, and those that don't would probably have found a way to lose money even in the bull markets we are experiencing. After all how many day traders are really making money at it? Few.

2. As for the old "the bull market has to end" bit, well, DUH! The always do. The thing is, why jump off of the gravy train before it runs out? Get what you can while you can get it and figure out your gains and losses over your entire period of investing, not just he last few days.

3. I notice the DOW is up over 100 points and climbing as I write this. I'm betting that if I tried to post this little trivia under the guise of "see, the market is really taking off" you would ridicule the statement. Why is it that any downturn is a crash but any upturn is a fluke?

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), January 05, 2000.

Dow up 70, S&P even and Nasdaq slipping a little. Can you Doomers say it with me - "market correction". Look for a continuing treand of market corrections through the summer. Listen to what I say because I predicted the Dow would slump down to the 7,000 range, that Troy Aikman would not be a good COLLEGE Quarterback and that Clint Black would be much bigger than Garth Brooks. I obviously know of what I speak and am a well-rounded poor prognisticator.

-- Slickaroo (no@no.com), January 06, 2000.

Hi "Slick" - All that means is that the S&P has now equalled what it was in July 1999 - one day wiped out the gains made in six months???!!!???

The next two days after that have been more or less steady....all this (supposedly) on "rumors" and "concerns" about an interst rate "blip" in February that would be overwritten by another change as early as April? The "market" - which apparently has excessively too many short-term buy & sell rumor-mongers - is too unstable to make any sense right now, but you are not concerned about a person's money being lost in a speculation fever created by others?

Why not recommend some caution for a few weeks? After all, it's his money, not yours, if his investments are caught in your urgings to "buy, buy, buy"..... right now.

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 06, 2000.

Robert:

That's what the market does. One year's gains are lost in a day or two. History shows us that those who stay the course worked out the best and that those who elected to buy at the "right time" during the downturn make out the very best.

I'm not advocating anyone to do anything with the market, to me it is just like gambling if you play with it. If you invest for the long- term and hold your investment decisions consistent with your long- term strategy you are indeed smart. I'm just saying that the market was heading into the correction mode before y2k and will be after y2k. In my post I say look for market corrections to take place through the summer. I just think that too much one time capital has been placed into non-production related items like computer technology for their not to be a downturn.

The only thing that y2k has to do with this market is the reason for the spending and potentially the reason for some of the selling off; assuming that foriegn capital entered the US before the roll-over and exited shortly after the rollover.

Paul is also correct when he states that profits are not profits when they are still in the potential profit category. I infer from this market activity that people are taking their money out of the incredible growth opportunities such as Red Hat, AOL, etc. and putting it into more stable companies such as Coca-Cola, GE, Wal- Mart, etc. That explains the slumping NASDAQ coinciding with the strong but inconsistent Dow and S&P.

I'm just happy we are all here to converse with one another.

-- Slickaroo (no@no.com), January 06, 2000.

I gave up arguing with Paul Neuhardt two years ago. I have since discoverd that he knows what he's talking about.

-- (I'm@pol.ly), January 06, 2000.